LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

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Notorial Dissent
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Notorial Dissent » Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:58 am

Britain's parliament passed a bill today granting the PM the authority to trigger the exit, which is expected to happen towards the end of the month, 27th according to the article.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Volkonski » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:12 am

The Sturgeon-May dust up gets serious.

Nicola Sturgeon announces second Scottish referendum
The First Minister linked her decision to Brexit


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 26746.html
Nicola Sturgeon made the announcement in a speech on Monday morning at Bute House, as MPs in Westminster prepared to give Theresa May the power to trigger Article 50 and begin Brexit negotiations.

She said the UK Government had "not moved even an inch in pursuit of compromise and agreement" with the Scottish Government over Brexit and that even a good deal would be "significantly inferior" to the status quo.

Ms May, however, accused Ms Sturgeon of playing "games" and the SNP of having "tunnel vision".

In her announcement at Bute House, Ms Sturgeon said: "If Scotland can be ignored on an issue as important as the EU and the single market then it is clear that our voice can be ignored at any time and on any issue."
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:50 am

A real cat fish fight between Sturgeon and May!

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Reality Check » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:52 am

Will someone get filleted? ;)
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Sam the Centipede » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:00 pm

Volkonski wrote:The Sturgeon-May dust up gets serious.

Nicola Sturgeon announces second Scottish referendum
The First Minister linked her decision to Brexit


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 26746.html
Ms May, however, accused Ms Sturgeon of playing "games" and the SNP of having "tunnel vision".
I'm sure that that patronizing tone will go down well with the people of Scotland. :sarcasm:

David Cameron (the UK prime minister who resigned after the Brexit vote) will surely go down in history as profoundly incompetent in that he made a rash promise of an unnecessary referendum which could only ever have two outcomes: "remain" causing dissatisfaction amongst "leave" voters but no positive vibe from the remainers, or "leave", causing anger and despair for the more remainers and massive economic problems - neither result is better than doing nothing.

I wonder if Theresa May has appreciated that she too will be judged to be an equally or more incompetent prime minister in that she is pushing through a leave decision that she thinks is wrong and she might be the leader who causes the break-up of the United Kingdom. Out of the EU, out of the UK, economic problems, not a good track record.

May must surely know that while Sturgeon is requesting a referendum now, that if May says no, the Scottish Parliament could decide to run one on its own. That would surely face legal challenges, but the Scottish Parliament is fully representative of the Scottish electorate (more so than the UK parliament is of its or Scotland's electorate) and there must surely be the implicit threat that Scotland will reclaim some sovereign powers whether the UK parliament likes it or not. It could get very exciting. Not necessarily in a good way.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:33 pm

WDST?

(What does Shrek think?)

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Reality Check » Wed Jul 12, 2017 8:47 am

Our fearless leader is coming around to my way of thinking.

Soros suggests that Brexit might never actually happen
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Mikedunford » Wed Jul 12, 2017 9:03 am

Reality Check wrote:Our fearless leader is coming around to my way of thinking.

Soros suggests that Brexit might never actually happen
With all due respect to you and the boss, and while I hope you are right, I think you're wrong. There's no political will for remain right now from either of the two largest parties in the UK. And the ability of the Court of Justice of the EU to interfere with any attempt to stretch out the divorce negotiations without strict compliance with treaty requirements should not be underestimated.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Wed Jul 12, 2017 9:24 am

Mikedunford wrote:
Reality Check wrote:Our fearless leader is coming around to my way of thinking.

Soros suggests that Brexit might never actually happen
With all due respect to you and the boss, and while I hope you are right, I think you're wrong. There's no political will for remain right now from either of the two largest parties in the UK. And the ability of the Court of Justice of the EU to interfere with any attempt to stretch out the divorce negotiations without strict compliance with treaty requirements should not be underestimated.
I think the EU decided after the vote there wouldn't be any "backsies" (NO sexual entendre here.) So it won't matter what Britain wants.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Reality Check » Wed Jul 12, 2017 10:09 am

Mikedunford wrote: With all due respect to you and the boss, and while I hope you are right, I think you're wrong. There's no political will for remain right now from either of the two largest parties in the UK. And the ability of the Court of Justice of the EU to interfere with any attempt to stretch out the divorce negotiations without strict compliance with treaty requirements should not be underestimated.
We will see. I think anything is possible when money is involved. A lot depends how much the EU wants to stick it to the UK and how the UK reacts. The election certainly weakened May's position going into the exit talks.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Mikedunford » Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:29 am

Reality Check wrote:
Mikedunford wrote: With all due respect to you and the boss, and while I hope you are right, I think you're wrong. There's no political will for remain right now from either of the two largest parties in the UK. And the ability of the Court of Justice of the EU to interfere with any attempt to stretch out the divorce negotiations without strict compliance with treaty requirements should not be underestimated.
We will see. I think anything is possible when money is involved. A lot depends how much the EU wants to stick it to the UK and how the UK reacts. The election certainly weakened May's position going into the exit talks.
May's own position, and the nation's, is clearly substantially weaker than it was going in to the victory-lap-gone-horribly-horribly-wrong election. And it's also much less coherent, particularly since Labour campaigned on a promise to respect the Brexit result. (A position since reinforced by Corbyn's decision to fire MPs from front-bench positions after they voted against orders in a pro-remain way.) But it still seems very strongly pro-remain.

And while money does have a way of making the impossible merely very, very expensive, I don't think the EU is convinced that their long-term financial best interest involves the UK remaining in the EU.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Reality Check » Wed Jul 12, 2017 12:14 pm

I am not sure why it would make economic sense for the EU to get rid of the UK. The UK has the second largest GDP of any EU country (2.629 trillion USD in 2016), is a nuclear power, and has the largest financial center. It would all depend upon terms of course and the sticky issue if getting around what was intended to be a one way exit rule. Of course the EU might have had enough of the drama with the UK and see them as a declining economic power.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Mikedunford » Wed Jul 12, 2017 3:36 pm

Reality Check wrote:I am not sure why it would make economic sense for the EU to get rid of the UK. The UK has the second largest GDP of any EU country (2.629 trillion USD in 2016), is a nuclear power, and has the largest financial center. It would all depend upon terms of course and the sticky issue if getting around what was intended to be a one way exit rule. Of course the EU might have had enough of the drama with the UK and see them as a declining economic power.
I think the larger issue is related to the drama. The UK isn't in the Eurozone, isn't in Schengen, and is one of the only two common-law countries in the EU. That's a lot of potential drama sources. And the UK has been steadfast in it's unwillingness to enter either Schengen or the Eurozone, while the CJEU seems to operate under the general assumption that common law is a barrier to the smooth functioning of the internal market, and should be minimized.

So while I agree that there will be some financial loss to the EU when the UK leaves, I'm still not sure that the EU is convinced that the losses won't be offset by the long term gains from getting rid of the chronic boat-rockers.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Sam the Centipede » Wed Jul 12, 2017 4:36 pm

Mikedunford wrote: :snippity:
So while I agree that there will be some financial loss to the EU when the UK leaves, I'm still not sure that the EU is convinced that the losses won't be offset by the long term gains from getting rid of the chronic boat-rockers.
Are you sure that the EU sees the UK in that light, as boat rockers? The Schengen exemption shouldn't be a major issue, given the lack of land borders between the UK and Schengen parts of the EU, and the Schengen countries are finding out that open borders have their problems in these more troubled times. The UK not being in the Eurozone has proved to be a blessing to everybody: the UK was able to handle its banking problems reasonably effectively without inconveniencing Europe, and the UK would not have been a happy partner in bailing out Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, etc.

The UK implements EU directives quite conscientiously, I believe, more conscientiously than the Mediterranean countries. As for the legal stuff, does anybody really care, except international lawyers? The UK's grumbles with the European Court seem mainly to be nonsensical right-wing populist crap, such as getting very excited about whether prisoners should have the right to vote and other trivia. It has been pointed out that if the UK government is seriously deluded if it thinks that any cross-citizenship deal between the exited UK and the EU is acceptable without oversight from the European Court - the EU is absolutely not going to accept the jurisdiction of the courts in London as the final arbiter.

My feeling, based on no knowledge at all, is that the EU would welcome the UK staying in, but the UK would have to give up the rebate in its contributions and would be severely politically weakened. The EU aspires to be a pan-European project, and missing one of the major players doesn't look good. Also, I suspect several of the northern countries like to hold the UK's beer while it fights their corner because many of those countries are also not keen on excessive subsidies for inefficient agriculture, industries and infrastructure in southern countries. If the UK leaves, those notherners will have to rock the boat themselves, and little countries (like Finland, Estonia, Denmark, etc.) don't have as loud voices.

But I really don't know. And the UK's politics look completely busted now, not quite as insane as Trumpovia, but broken.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Reality Check » Wed Jul 12, 2017 7:54 pm

Great post Sam. The UK walking away from the EU isn't trivial economically. The UK has the most to lose but I think delusions of past grandeur have clouded a lot of minds. I think the next key moment will be when the UK realizes what a weak hand it holds in the exit negotiations. When their folks have to come back with a bad deal it will be interesting to see who gets the blame.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by DejaMoo » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:12 am

Brexit referendum: Thousands back second vote on EU withdrawal
Thousands of people have backed a petition calling for a referendum ahead of the final Brexit deal.

Almost 7,000 people have signed the petition to allow British people a final say on the deal for the UK to leave the EU.

The referendum is proposed to take place ahead of the April 2019 exit date.

The options are; to revoke Article 50, thereby keeping Britain in the EU, to reject the UK-EU deal and leave the EU or to accept the UK-EU deal and leave the EU.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Volkonski » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:52 am

Prepare for no-deal Brexit, Theresa May warns Britain

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 91606.html
As hopes of an agreement appeared to fade at home and abroad, the Prime Minister – for the first time – set out detailed “steps to minimise disruption” on Brexit day in 2019. They included plans for huge inland lorry parks to cope with the lengthy new customs checks that will be needed – to avoid ports becoming traffic-choked.

The move came as Ms May admitted she expected the deadlocked negotiations to drag on for another year before any possible breakthrough.

:snippity:

“Traders that currently trade only with the EU will be subject to customs declarations and customs checks for the first time,” it stated. “The impact is likely to be greatest where goods are travelling in vehicles (eg HGVs, vans, etc).”

And it added: “It would not be desirable to hold vehicles for any length of time at ports to present goods to Customs for export. Therefore, presentation would take place inland as much as possible, and at the port there would be a means to confirm that goods have left the UK.”
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Suranis » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:55 am

Welcome to Fucked, population, you.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Volkonski » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:04 am

Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Foggy » Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:01 am

It would be easier to criticize the vote if'n we hadn't voted for Trump. :madguy:
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by RTH10260 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:49 pm

Volkonski wrote:
Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:52 am
Prepare for no-deal Brexit, Theresa May warns Britain

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 91606.html
:snippity:
Looks mighty Trump-alike - bad at the Art Of The Deal :rotflmao:

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Suranis » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:54 pm

Peter North, who ran one of the Leave campaigns wrote about what he thinks post-Brexit Britain will be like.

It's infuriatingly smug and the tl;dr is that everything will be on fire, no-one will have jobs and poverty is going to be the default state for pretty much everyone. But at least those darn kids will finally have to pull their pants up and get jobs or something.

http://peterjnorth.blogspot.sk/2017/10/ ... e.html?m=1
In the first year or so we are going to lose a lot of manufacturing. Virtually all JIT export manufacturing will fold inside a year. Initially we will see food prices plummet but this won't last. Domestic agriculture won't be able to compete and we'll see a gradual decline of UK production. UK meats will be premium produce and no longer affordable to most.

Once food importers have crushed all UK competition they will gradually raise their prices, simply because they can. Meanwhile wages will stay depressed and because of the collapse of disposable income and availability of staff, we can probably expect the service sector to take a big hit thus eliminating all the jobs that might provide a supplementary income.

Across the board we will see prices rising. There will be some serendipitous benefits but nothing that offsets the mass job losses. We will see a lot of foreign investment dry up and banking services will move to the EU. Dublin and Frankfurt. I expect that house prices will start to fall, but that's not going to do anyone any favours in the short to mid term.

[...]

Eventually things will settle down and we will get used to the new order of things. My gut instinct tells me that culturally it will be a vast improvement on the status quo. There will be more reasons to cooperate and more need to congregate. I expect to see a cultural revolution where young people actually start doing surprising and reckless things again rather than becoming tedious hipsters drinking energy drinks in pop-up cereal bar book shops or whatever it is they do these days. We'll be back to the days when students had to be frugal and from their resourcefulness manage to produce interesting things and events.

A few years in and we will then have started to rebuild EU relations, probably plugging back into Euratom, Erasmus, and a large part of the single market. It will take some time to plug back into the EU aviation market. The EU will be very cautious about what it lets us back in on.

Effectively we are looking at a ten year recession. Nothing ever experienced by those under 50. Admittedly this is not the Brexit I was gunning for. I wanted a negotiated settlement to maintain the single market so that we did not have to be substantially poorer, but, in a lot of ways I actually prefer this to the prospect of maintaining the 2015 status quo with ever degraded politics with increasingly less connection to each other.

I'm of the view that in recent years people have become increasingly spoiled and self-indulgent, inventing psychological problems for themselves in the absence of any real challenges or imperatives to grow as people. I have always primarily thought Brexit would be a reboot on British politics and culture. In a lot of ways it will bring back much of what is missing. A little austerity might very well make us less frivolous.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Mikedunford » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:16 am

Richard Dawkins is a moron. That was always on offer (and, in my view, always the most likely outcome).
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Sam the Centipede » Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:50 pm

Mikedunford wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:16 am
Richard Dawkins is a moron. That was always on offer (and, in my view, always the most likely outcome).
:) C'mon Mike, where are your previous high standards of both debate and snark? :)

You know very well that Richard Dawkins is a long way from being a moron. A moron doesn't get appointed to a chair at Oxford University (the Simonyi Professorship for the Public Understanding of Science). I have some misgivings about some of his views on the mechanisms of natural selection in biological evolution, as perhaps you do with your pre-lawyer lab coat on, but that's nor relevant here.

I can't read Dawkins' mind, so I don't know what his intended meaning was. He could be suggesting that the "Leave" campaign implied there would be an orderly, negotiated exit ... I have no idea whether that's an accurate depiction or not. Or he could be suggesting that the leave/remain vote was non-specific, so it's wrong to claim it as support for any particular type of exit, disorderly or negotiated. Without context, I dunno.

What's clear from reports I have seen this week is that the UK government's political negotiators are massively deluded about their position. They're saying that the next move must be from the EU but without appreciating that the EU team is (a) constrained by its terms of reference from the multi-national body overseeing it, and (b) can simply sit and wait, because it's the UK leaving the EU, not the EU leaving the UK (nor the EU kicking out the UK). The UK's negotiators seem to think that they can bully the EU: ain't gonna happen.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Suranis » Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:16 pm

Dawkins isn't exactly a moron, but his arrogance causes him to opine on shit where he is massivly wrong, and he will not take a "you're wrong" for an answer, nor even look at the evidence of his being wrong. ;)

Anyway, a dutch guy writes on what is wrong with England right now, and who he is leaving Britain and he is glad Brexit happened. In short, the class system is total horseshit, the Press is a horror story run by 6 right wing monsters, and the English are too stuck up their own arse to realize they are not that important and the EU does not need them more than they need the EU. Also the Brits cant see things except in terms of winners and losers, and that needs to be knocked out of them hard. Its a good read even if you disagree with it. I don't, and frankly I see a lot of the same shit here in Ireland.

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/maga ... he-england
How I learnt to loathe England

A Dutchman reflects on what he’s learnt by living in Britain for the last six years—it isn’t pretty
by Joris Luyendijk / October 6, 2017 /

We had arrived as fellow Europeans, but when we left this summer to return to the Netherlands we felt more like foreigners: people tolerated as long as they behave. At best we were “European Union nationals” whose rights would be subject to negotiations—bargaining chips in the eyes of politicians. As we sailed from Harwich, it occurred to me that our departure would be counted by Theresa May as five more strikes towards her goal of “bringing down net immigration to the tens of thousands.”

The Dutch and the British have a lot in common, at first sight. Sea-faring nations with a long and guilty history of colonial occupation and slavery, they are pro free-trade and have large financial service industries—RBS may even move its headquarters to Amsterdam. Both tend to view American power as benign; the Netherlands joined the occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq. Shell, Unilever and Elsevier are just three examples of remarkably successful Anglo-Dutch joint ventures. I say “remarkably” because I’ve learned that in important respects, there is no culture more alien to the Dutch than the English (I focus on England as I’ve no experience with Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland). Echoing the Calvinist insistence on “being true to oneself,” the Dutch are almost compulsively truthful. Most consider politeness a cowardly form of hypocrisy. Bluntness is a virtue; insincerity and backhandedness are cardinal sins.

So let me try to be as Dutch as I can, and say that I left the UK feeling disappointed, hurt and immensely worried. We did not leave because of Brexit. My wife and I are both Dutch and we want our children to grow roots in the country where we came of age. We loved our time in London and have all met people who we hope will become our friends for life. But by the time the referendum came, I had become very much in favour of the UK leaving the EU. The worrying conditions that gave rise to the result—the class divide and the class fixation, as well as an unhinged press, combine to produce a national psychology that makes Britain a country you simply don’t want in your club.

I am terribly sorry for my pro-EU middle-class friends in England, and even more sorry for the poor who had no idea that by supporting Brexit they were voting to become poorer. But this is England’s problem, not the EU’s: the nation urgently needs some time alone to sort itself out. So when those first “Leave” votes came in, I found myself making fist pumps at the television.
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