LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Notorial Dissent » Fri Jul 15, 2016 2:06 am

Well, sort of depends on who you are, there are a number of now out of work politicians and former rising stars who are suddenly political non-entities, deservedly so in my opinion, but otherwise life seems to have gone on, and oddly, the world hasn't come to an end, except for the former cabinet and government members. The British are truly remarkable in that.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Flatpointhigh » Tue Jul 19, 2016 10:17 am

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... rexit-vote

Thanks Farage.
The fund said it had cut its forecasts for the global economy due to the likely knock-on effect of the vote on other countries, particularly in Europe.

Maury Obstfeld, the IMF’s economic counsellor, said: “The first half of 2016 revealed some promising signs – for example, stronger than expected growth in the euro area and Japan, as well as a partial recovery in commodity prices that helped several emerging and developing economies

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Reality Check » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:09 am

I hadn't read anything about Brexit lately other than the buffoon Farage endorsing the buffoon Trump but I see Britain's new PM seems to be engaging in some serious foot dragging on invoking Article 50. I am beginning to think that the plan is to wait a year until the masses have moved on the the next shiny thing and pretend the Leave vote never happened.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Volkonski » Sun Aug 28, 2016 8:33 am

Theresa May will trigger Brexit negotiations without Commons vote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08 ... mmons-vot/
Theresa May will not hold a parliamentary vote on Brexit before opening negotiations to formally trigger Britain's withdrawal from the European Union, The Telegraph has learned.

Opponents of Brexit claim that because the EU referendum result is advisory it must be approved by a vote in the Commons before Article 50 - the formal mechanism to leave the EU - is triggered.

However, in a move which will cheer Eurosceptics, The Telegraph has learned that Mrs May will invoke Article 50 without a vote in Parliament

It had been suggested - by Tony Blair, the former Labour Prime Minister, and Owen Smith, the Labour leadership candidate, among others - that Remain-supporting MPs could use a Parliamentary vote to stop Brexit.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Jim » Sun Aug 28, 2016 8:49 am

Volkonski wrote:Theresa May will trigger Brexit negotiations without Commons vote
Sounds like they're setting this up to be a long, drawn-out court battle.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Reality Check » Sun Aug 28, 2016 9:28 am

PM May still thinks Europe is going to negotiate and deliver favorable terms and a pony before Britain invokes Article 50. I think she is quite delusional. Europe has always maintained that the first step is to invoke Article 50 then they will talk. It seems strange to me that an an advisory vote can undo an act of Parliament. I think the court challenge could prove interesting.

Edit: Forgot that a court challenge is already underway.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:16 am

Jim wrote:
Volkonski wrote:Theresa May will trigger Brexit negotiations without Commons vote
Sounds like they're setting this up to be a long, drawn-out court battle.
It sounds to me as if PM May is going to ignore the court litigation now pending. Once Art. 50 is invoked it's over.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Mikedunford » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:56 am

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Jim wrote:
Volkonski wrote:Theresa May will trigger Brexit negotiations without Commons vote
Sounds like they're setting this up to be a long, drawn-out court battle.
It sounds to me as if PM May is going to ignore the court litigation now pending. Once Art. 50 is invoked it's over.
Maybe. Here's the relevant part of Article 50:
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention...
If May invokes Article 50, but UK courts later determine that a vote in Parliament was needed, then was the "decision" to withdraw made in accordance with the UK's constitutional requirements? And if it was not, does that mean that the notification was ineffective?

Ordinarily, compliance with internal UK procedure would not matter, because in international law a state may not use compliance with its municipal laws as a justification for noncompliance with international obligations. See International Law Commission, Draft Articles on Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts, Article 3. In this case, however, the language of the relevant treaty suggests that the decision to withdraw must be made in compliance with UK constitutional requirements. Unfortunately, the language is less than crystal clear, which means that if a UK court rules that a Parliamentary vote was required, the CJEU will probably then have to determine if an invocation of Article 50 that did not fully comply with the state's internal obligations is still effective.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Volkonski » Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:37 am

They should just build a wall. ;)

2 Months After ‘Brexit’ Vote, Britain’s Push to Leave E.U. Is a Muddle

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/01/world ... .html?_r=0
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Theresa May called cabinet ministers to a brainstorming session about the withdrawal, pledging to examine “the next steps” for Britain and to identify “opportunities that are now open to us as we forge a new role” in the world.

However, in ministerial offices, where turf wars have rapidly broken out, advocates of the withdrawal have discovered that four decades of European integration have left Britain so deeply embedded in the 28-nation bloc that there is no easy escape route.

British officials currently have neither the expertise nor the staff for the tortuous exit negotiations, which are likely to last at least three years and possibly much longer. Some analysts have even said they might take a decade.

But perhaps what they lack most of all is a game plan.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Suranis » Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:45 pm

People are still going "Its not that bad, you know"

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Er...

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Volkonski » Sat Sep 10, 2016 11:52 am

Britain 'too lazy and fat', says Trade Secretary Liam Fox


He added: "Companies who could be contributing to our national prosperity - but choose not to because it might be too difficult or too time-consuming or because they can't play golf on a Friday afternoon - we've got to be saying to them if you want to share in the prosperity of our country you have a duty to contribute to the prosperity of our country."

:snippity:

A Downing Street spokesman said Mr Fox had been expressing his own views at the event, and not the views of the government.

:snippity:

But Mr Reed, who was also deputy chair of the official Remain referendum campaign, called Mr Fox's comments "absolutely disgusting".

"He is a representative of us, of this country, and he turns round and slags us off, calling us fat and lazy," he said on BBC Radio 4's Today. "He's never done a day's business in his life."
Fox clearly has no idea how businesses work. :roll: :roll: :roll:

Are Liam Fox and Boris Johnson really the best that Theresa May could find to fill those jobs?
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Reality Check » Sat Sep 10, 2016 12:13 pm

My money is still on Brexit never happening. The Tories are just trying to find a way not to do it without looking like idiots.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Volkonski » Sat Sep 10, 2016 1:41 pm

Reality Check wrote:My money is still on Brexit never happening. The Tories are just trying to find a way not to do it without looking like idiots.
Too late to accomplish that. ;)
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Reality Check » Sat Sep 10, 2016 2:10 pm

Volkonski wrote:Too late to accomplish that. ;)
I should have said even more idiotic than they already do.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Volkonski » Sat Oct 08, 2016 10:41 am

All 3.6 million EU nationals 'can stay in the UK after Brexit'
The Home Office says five in six EU migrants could not be legally deported


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 51446.html
All EU migrants living in the UK will be allowed to stay following Brexit after an amnesty for those who have not already received permanent residency rights, it has been reported.

More than 80 per cent of the 3.6 million EU citizens who currently live in the UK will already have the right to remain by the time Britain leaves the European Union, according to official research.

The Home Office has learned that five in six EU migrants could not be legally deported and those who can will be offered an amnesty and be offered the opportunity to stay, the Telegraph has reported.

Current rules state that you receive permanent residency rights once you have lived in the UK for more than five years, which almost 2.9 million would have done by 2019 – the year Britain is set to leave the EU.
This will not please some of the more rabid pro-Brexit people. ;) I imagine that this is an attempt to get better terms from the EU on post-Brexit trade.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Adrianinflorida » Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:26 pm

Those that are legally in the UK prior to Article 50 being invoked really can't be booted out, the ensuing shit storm would destroy The UK faster than UKIP ever could. The City of London has its work cut out to remain the European banking capital, as it is.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by RTH10260 » Mon Oct 10, 2016 6:26 pm

Volkonski wrote:All 3.6 million EU nationals 'can stay in the UK after Brexit'
The Home Office says five in six EU migrants could not be legally deported


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 51446.html

:snippity:

This will not please some of the more rabid pro-Brexit people. ;) I imagine that this is an attempt to get better terms from the EU on post-Brexit trade.
The Brits also need to think of their own expats in diaspora all over Europe, especially all those elderly that can survive on small pensions in eg Spain, but could not live anymore in their homecountry. (Apart that the British government about two years ago essentially forced many with inherited homes / cottages to sell them off, cause the rent they received from their tenants was suddenly taxed at a high rate and the rest did not cover the upkeeping anymore, they have no home to return to).

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by chancery » Mon Oct 10, 2016 6:36 pm

Was this tax hike exclusively for expats? And how high is high?

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Volkonski » Thu Oct 13, 2016 12:58 pm

Scotland's Sturgeon sparks Brexit duel with May, plans independence bill

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brita ... 2C2QA?il=0
Speaking at the start of her Scottish National Party's (SNP) bi-annual conference on Thursday, Sturgeon said her devolved government would publish a draft independence referendum bill as early as next week.

Questions about the future of the 309-year union between England, where a majority voted to leave the EU, and Scotland, where a majority voted to stay in it, have multiplied since the June 23 referendum put the entire United Kingdom on the path to an exit.

British Prime Minister Theresa May last week set out the exit timetable by promising to launch the two-year legal process by the end of March, and later triggered a fall in the value of the pound to a 31-year low by appearing to prioritize immigration controls over Britain's current preferential access to the EU single market, which could hurt trade and investment.

"If you think for one single second that I'm not serious about doing what it takes to protect Scotland's interests, then think again," Sturgeon said in a warning to May.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by RTH10260 » Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:15 pm

chancery wrote:Was this tax hike exclusively for expats? And how high is high?
Need to recall from memory, the event happend in 2014. Maybe one of our UK residents can drop in with the real and true explanation ;)

No, it wasn't against expats only, but I guess they were hit the worst. I picked up the event as it unfolded and heard it from Brit expat sources in Thailand.

IIRC the self owned and inhabited homes have traditionally been taxed at a very low nominal rate (asset tax like near to nothing, income from rental possibly ignored). This tax status was also transfererred when a home passed on to the heirs. The tax status remained even when the owners lived elsewhere and rented out their home. Many people working elsewhere, in the UK or overseas, as well as retirees temporary living outside of the UK, would rent out their property. Mid 2014 the UK government made changes to the tax code and these went into effect within months without any grandfathering clause. IIRC the change declared that only homes being actually lived in by the owner retained the preferred treatment, all other homes were considered 'commercial', asset value to be assessed at regular market value and rental income as personal income.

The new taxation lead, at least for many if not all, to a situation that the taxes were far higher than the rental income. Changing the owners situation by evicting a tenant or increasing the rent to accomodate the new taxation level was not an option under existing renting rules and tenant protection rules. The resulting effect being that the real estate could not be kept anymore. People were forced to sell off their owned / their inherited homes that they intended to use later, eg after retirement.

Owners living in the UK would likely have known about this change first hand from the news. Expat owners at the time did not get any notifications and heard of the bad news only thru the grapevine. Problem for many expats was that they would need to return home at great cost to sell off their property, possibly at loss. For others living outside the said grapevines there was/is surely a nasty surprise awating them. As mentioned, many of the low income group managed to surivive on a small pension plus rental income (not needed for upkeep) outside of the UK, the new situation may force them to relocate back home, need to find public housing (long witing lists as far I am aware of) and become a burden for government living support.

Note for US residents: taxation between the US and other parts of the world (like Europe) differ in one important point. The income tax and VAT is distributed among the various level of government. For the lowest level, eg cities / communes / municipalites, they do not need to rely like in the US on real estate / property taxes (with a usual self-inhabited exclusion preference). Elsewhere realestate is just a part of overall low asset taxes.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Adrianinflorida » Fri Oct 14, 2016 5:15 am

It was a tax against anyone who had second/ vacation homes in the UK, iirc.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Volkonski » Sun Oct 23, 2016 5:16 pm

Wallonia is the French-speaking southern half of Belgium, population 3.5 million. This is like if Chicago had veto power over US trade policy. :roll:

Wallonia’s stand on trade spells trouble for Brexit
Parliamentary votes on EU-Canada deal set an ominous precedent


https://www.ft.com/content/3cb030f6-97a ... d69f323a8b
Even the equable Canadians are losing patience with the EU’s inability to win backing for a trade deal that was meant to set new standards for advanced economies. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement — seven years in the making — was to be signed this week. But on Friday, Canada’s trade minister walked away from emergency talks to salvage the deal, leaving EU and Belgian officials still tussling to overcome the resistance of the regional parliament of Wallonia.

In Brussels, some are still optimistic that a compromise will emerge, but the damage has already been done. The EU’s embarrassment over Ceta has dealt a huge blow to its credibility as a trade negotiator. If European governments cannot win backing for a deal of relatively modest scale with prosperous, socially progressive Canada, there is little hope of their framing an effective response to the threat of dumping by China, or of making progress on a far more contentious trade and investment deal with the US.

:snippity:

It now seems likely that unless the UK limits itself to the most basic form of trade deal with the EU — covering little more than tariffs on trade in goods — it will have to undergo the same process to settle the terms of Brexit. Politicians around Europe are already blanching at the prospect, with one former trade commissioner describing any repeat of the Ceta procedure as a “very serious problem for Brexit”.

It would be wise for David Davis, the Brexit minister, to temper his blithe optimism that the UK can secure smooth access to EU markets. A threat to slap tariffs on German car imports is unlikely to prove persuasive with the long list of national and regional parliaments who may have a veto. Mr Davis once described the EU-Canada agreement as a good starting-point for talks with Brussels. Following this logic, any such deal will need to be both good for Britain and good for Wallonia.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Sam the Centipede » Sun Oct 23, 2016 10:05 pm

Volkonski wrote: :snippity:
It now seems likely that unless the UK limits itself to the most basic form of trade deal with the EU — covering little more than tariffs on trade in goods — it will have to undergo the same process to settle the terms of Brexit. Politicians around Europe are already blanching at the prospect, with one former trade commissioner describing any repeat of the Ceta procedure as a “very serious problem for Brexit”.

It would be wise for David Davis, the Brexit minister, to temper his blithe optimism that the UK can secure smooth access to EU markets.
It's going to be bloody for the Brits if they don't have the good sense to drop their withdrawal plan. Living in Norway (a non-EU member with a population balanced slightly against membership in referendums) I saw the deal that Norway struck and how it is implemented. The Norwegian government had to accept free movement of people and application of many EU regulations in exchange for free trade. When the Norwegian authorities considered implementing some small restrictions on some food imports a few years back, they were quickly and firmly advised as to how that would be not to their advantage. The Brits (as I understand - or misunderstand - it) want free trade without free movement or other regulation and that simply isn't going to happen. As Volkonski's linked article highlights, even if a large part of the EU were to be content with such a plan, that would not be sufficient; it needs all members to agree. And some countries' leaders will be in no mood to compromize or cooperate.

With no agreement when exit becomes final, I believe the automatic fallback position is that WTO (World Trade Organization) rules kick in. That apparently is not to the UK's advantage.

Today I read reports about international banks planning to move regional head offices away from London because they need an EU-locatex head office in order not to be considered "foreign" in all EU countries. That will hit UK taxpayers hard, really hard, because London's financial services companies are a major contributor to the UK's tax take. I don't have the numbers, but I recall that it is a surprisingly large percentage of the UK's tax revenue.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Volkonski » Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:36 am

Now that Wallonia has messed up the Canadian European Trade Agreement, the UK is worried that Wales will mess up the Brexit talks.


Brexit: Welsh Government told not to undermine talks



The joint ministerial council (JMC), which includes Mr Jones and the prime minister, met for the first time since 2014 on Monday.

Prime Minister Theresa May said it was "imperative" Wales helped make Brexit discussions work.

But Mrs May's official spokeswoman said: "We have been very clear that we should be working together to secure the best possible deal for the whole country.

"We expect representatives of the devolved administrations to act in that way and to in no way undermine the UK's position."
Meanwhile in Scotland-

Sturgeon tells May she's 'not bluffing' over referendum

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned Theresa May she is not "bluffing" over her promise to hold an independence referendum if Scotland's vote against Brexit is "not respected".

After talks in Downing Street, she said she was not prepared to see "Scotland driven off a hard Brexit cliff-edge".

She and the first ministers of Wales and Northern Ireland demanded to be fully consulted on EU negotiations.

But Downing Street said it was vital not to "undermine" the UK's position.
Looks like the Celts have formed a united front against the English. ;)

UK facing ‘full-blown constitutional crisis’

http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/ ... 091f4336d4
In a message to Theresa May as she hosts the leaders of the devolved administrations for talks, the Institute for Government (IfG) said the four governments should agree the “core planks” of the UK’s negotiating position before the Prime Minister triggers Article 50, formally starting the Brexit process.

The IfG warned that imposing a Brexit settlement on Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland may be legally possible but it would be a “reckless strategy” which could lead to the possible break-up of the UK.

The report acknowledged the difficulties that will be faced in reaching consensus between Mrs May, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, Welsh leader Carwyn Jones and Northern Ireland’s Arlene Foster and her deputy Martin McGuinness, but warned of a “serious breakdown in relations” if agreement was not reached.

“There is little common ground between these leaders on the future of the UK or almost anything else,” the report said.
Sure hope this doesn't interfere with the next season of Dr. Who. :?
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:43 am

The best thing that could happen for England right now (and also for Great Britain) would be for one of the longshot lawsuits requiring Parliamentary approval before Brexit talks to succeed. England needs a way out of its stupid Brexit vote. Will the Law Lords save the country?

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