LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

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Reality Check
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1076

Post by Reality Check » Sat Aug 03, 2019 1:32 pm

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 12:34 pm
By "Union" you mean United Kingston, right?
Of course, just like Ivanka said. :-D
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1077

Post by PaulG » Sat Aug 03, 2019 1:34 pm

RTH10260 wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:18 am
Brexit: Trump administration ‘tells Boris Johnson to drop tax on tech giants’ to secure trade deal
The Independent Andrew Buncombe, Zamira Rahim,The Independent 14 hours ago

The Trump administration has made it clear to Boris Johnson that any post-Brexit US-UK free trade deal would rely on Britain dropping plans to tax large American tech firms, according to reports.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-admini ... 00093.html
When you have told all the other countries to go to the hell, and Trump turns on you... meh, who's kidding who. None of these people care about governing the country, they just want to end up with big piles of cash after it all collapses.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1078

Post by p0rtia » Sat Aug 03, 2019 1:45 pm

Reality Check wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 1:31 pm
p0rtia wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 1:21 pm

Can somebody fill me in on the likelihood of a fall election? I know the twit only has a one vote majority, but if that holds it's enough, yeah? My Vern Wise Brother in Law told me that there were Tories threatening to support a vote of no confidence? :confused:
There are several Tories who are so opposed to a No Deal Brexit that they have threatened to bring down the government if Johnson follows through with No Deal. I think there is another Tory MP who is on trial for sexual assault. If he has to step down that could flip another seat.
Thanks, Rick :bighug:
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1079

Post by Suranis » Sat Aug 03, 2019 1:48 pm

Dan1100 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:48 pm
I know it won't happen, but wouldn't it be awesome if Sinn Fein took their seat in Parliament just long enough to kill Brexit and make Boris spontaneously combust. (Suranis???)
It wouldnt work. Boris would simply have another vote when they left.

Besides, Sinn Fein is having its own internal problems right now, which I kind of felt they would when <3 GERRY!!!! <3 left. They got sevearly mauled in the recent local elections here in Ireland, and that has torn open the serious rift with the Nordies and the Southern members that they have always papered over with their "one party in all Ireland" crap. Their present President, Mary Lou McDonald, is there becasue she is a "what Gerry Said" woman and everyone knows it, and the mauling has everyone questioning her leadership which they never dared do with <3 Gerry!!! <3 no matter how much he screwed up. She is now too busy trying to keep her seat at the head of the Sinn Fein leadership to start picking fights with BoJo.

So basically Sinn Fein has been very quiet of late.

Besides, Sinn Fein are a fairly anti EU bunch anyway, with dark talk about how the EU is just another way for "the Brits to dominate us." Which pretty much everything is dontchaknow.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1080

Post by Mikedunford » Sat Aug 03, 2019 3:06 pm

Realistically, don't know that even a general election is going to solve anything. Think the most likely outcome would be several failed attempts to build a coalition.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1081

Post by Slim Cognito » Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:45 pm

My friend in GB has tried to explain this to me, as well. She mentioned a possible eventual "no confidence" vote. I don't understand what happens next.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1082

Post by Reality Check » Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:50 pm

Mikedunford wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 3:06 pm
Realistically, don't know that even a general election is going to solve anything. Think the most likely outcome would be several failed attempts to build a coalition.
The outcome would be difficult to predict. One problem is that thanks to Jeremy Corbyn's terrible leadership Labour has been losing ground faster than the Conservatives. In the recent election in Wales that was won by a Lib Dem Labour lost even more ground than the Conservatives since the last election in 2017. The Lib Dem's won a plurality because the conservative vote split between the Tories, Brexit Party and the UKIP.
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Sam the Centipede
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1083

Post by Sam the Centipede » Sat Aug 03, 2019 10:07 pm

Reality Check wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:50 pm
Mikedunford wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 3:06 pm
Realistically, don't know that even a general election is going to solve anything. Think the most likely outcome would be several failed attempts to build a coalition.
The outcome would be difficult to predict. One problem is that thanks to Jeremy Corbyn's terrible leadership Labour has been losing ground faster than the Conservatives. In the recent election in Wales that was won by a Lib Dem Labour lost even more ground than the Conservatives since the last election in 2017. The Lib Dem's won a plurality because the conservative vote split between the Tories, Brexit Party and the UKIP.
I think it's wrong to read much into the Brecon & Radnor vote with regard to Labour. It's a very rural constituency so would only ever have a small Labour vote. The constituency was Liberal a few years ago. Many pro-Remain Labour-leaning voters would have voted Liberal as the effective anti-Brexit, anti-Conservative vote.

But I'm not saying that Labour is doing well under Corbyn, only that that election isn't a reliable guage.

I agree with your analysis that there was a majority for pro-Brexit parties (albeit on a lower turnout than for a general election) which must be very worrying for anti-Brexit campaigners.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1084

Post by Dan1100 » Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:03 pm

Suranis wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 1:48 pm
Dan1100 wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:48 pm
I know it won't happen, but wouldn't it be awesome if Sinn Fein took their seat in Parliament just long enough to kill Brexit and make Boris spontaneously combust. (Suranis???)
It wouldnt work. Boris would simply have another vote when they left.

:snippity:

Besides, Sinn Fein are a fairly anti EU bunch anyway, with dark talk about how the EU is just another way for "the Brits to dominate us." Which pretty much everything is dontchaknow.
Thanks for the local info.

It is an interesting dynamic, because any of the small parties, whether its SNP, SDLP (or whatever they are called now), the Northern Irish parties, or maybe even the Welsh, have enough votes to extract major concessions if they can get the s**t together and use their power.
"Devin Nunes is having a cow over this."

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Sam the Centipede
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1085

Post by Sam the Centipede » Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:28 am

Dan1100 wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:03 pm
It is an interesting dynamic, because any of the small parties, whether its SNP, SDLP (or whatever they are called now), the Northern Irish parties, or maybe even the Welsh, have enough votes to extract major concessions if they can get the s**t together and use their power.
No, that can't be correct. The SNP (Scottish Nationalists) are already firmly in the Remain camp and nothing the government offers could persuade them to support Brexit. The inappropriately named Democratic Unionists in Northern Ireland had their mouths stuffed with money by Theresa May to buy their general support after her botched general election. I don't know their position but I doubt that they'd support anything that is likely to generate a hard customs border either in Ireland or in thr sea between Great Britain and Ireland — and the only way to avoid both is to remain in the EU.

The Conservatives' problem is gaining the support of all their own MPs. Without that, they can't win votes. That's why some Brexit supporters want to prevent Parliament from voting and crash out.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1086

Post by Jcolvin2 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:05 am

Reality Check wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 1:32 pm
By "Union" you mean United Kingston, right?
Of course, just like Ivanka said. :-D
Not to be confused with Kingston United SC (a Canadian soccer club).

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1087

Post by Dan1100 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:25 am

Sam the Centipede wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:28 am
Dan1100 wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:03 pm
It is an interesting dynamic, because any of the small parties, whether its SNP, SDLP (or whatever they are called now), the Northern Irish parties, or maybe even the Welsh, have enough votes to extract major concessions if they can get the s**t together and use their power.
No, that can't be correct. The SNP (Scottish Nationalists) are already firmly in the Remain camp and nothing the government offers could persuade them to support Brexit. The inappropriately named Democratic Unionists in Northern Ireland had their mouths stuffed with money by Theresa May to buy their general support after her botched general election. I don't know their position but I doubt that they'd support anything that is likely to generate a hard customs border either in Ireland or in thr sea between Great Britain and Ireland — and the only way to avoid both is to remain in the EU.

The Conservatives' problem is gaining the support of all their own MPs. Without that, they can't win votes. That's why some Brexit supporters want to prevent Parliament from voting and crash out.
Admittedly, I am speculating about something I know very little about. :bag:
"Devin Nunes is having a cow over this."

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1088

Post by RTH10260 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:03 am

EU officials: No basis for further UK Brexit talks

The EU has said there is no basis for any further Brexit talks while the UK continues to insist on making changes to Theresa May's withdrawal agreement.

EU negotiators told European diplomats changes suggested by the new UK government, such as scrapping the Irish border backstop, were unacceptable.

But Downing Street is rejecting claims it wanted talks to fail to allow a no-deal Brexit to be pushed through.

A spokesperson said they hoped the EU would rethink its refusal of changes.

They said the EU "needed to change its stance", as Mrs May's deal will not pass through Parliament in its current form.

They added: "We will throw ourselves into the negotiations with the greatest energy and the spirit of friendship and we hope the EU will rethink its current refusal to make any changes to the withdrawal agreement."

The plan negotiated between the EU and former Prime Minister Mrs May was voted down by MPs three times.

An EU negotiator told the meeting on Sunday: ""With only a few weeks to go we are back where we were three years ago."

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has pledged to "do or die", and leave the EU by the deadline of 31 October, with or without a deal.

A senior EU diplomat said in the meeting that a no-deal Brexit appears to be the UK government's "central scenario", according to the Daily Telegraph and the Guardian.

"It was clear UK does not have another plan. No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan," the diplomat is reported to have said.

BBC Brussels reporter Adam Fleming said the meeting between the officials and diplomats was a debrief from discussions last week between the EU, UK Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay and Mr Johnson's European envoy, David Frost.

Mr Frost reiterated the prime minister's stance that the backstop element of Mrs May's plan - which aims to prevent a hard border returning between Ireland and Northern Ireland - had to be abolished.

The backstop - agreed by Mrs May in November 2018 - would see Northern Ireland staying aligned to some rules of the EU single market.

Mr Frost said Mr Johnson's new ministers were not bound by commitments made by the previous government.


https:// www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49240809

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1089

Post by fierceredpanda » Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:35 am

At this point, it's hard for me to envision how the United Kingdom stays united while BoJo is PM. I feel like, before the year is out, either the "Little England" types in the Tory party will succeed in dissolving the UK, or Boris will go down in a vote of confidence.

Why can't someone other than Corbyn be running Labour? And, for that matter, why did the one decent, charismatic, pro-EU politician in the country (Nick Clegg) have to enter into a silly coalition with David Cameron that made him into a national punchline and drove him to a job at Facebook?
"There's no play here. There's no angle. There's no champagne room. I'm not a miracle worker, I'm a janitor. The math on this is simple; the smaller the mess, the easier it is for me to clean up." -Michael Clayton

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1090

Post by Hurtzi » Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:24 am

Good riddance.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1091

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:34 am

We will throw ourselves into the negotiations with the greatest energy and the spirit of friendship and we hope the EU will rethink its current refusal to make any changes to the withdrawal agreement.
Having spent half a century negotiating for other people, all I can say is that he author of this sentence is hopelessly naive. The word "hope" is basically recognition that the U.K. has no bargaining power.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1092

Post by Suranis » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:40 am

All bojo cares about is shifting the blame to the EU, in my view. From what has been leaked about his chats in private, he seems to think hard Brexit will be brutal short term but will be a fantastic thing long term. So he is unconcerrned about a hard no deal causing chaos as he thinks it will be fantastic later and he will be seen as a true leader.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1093

Post by ArthurWankspittle » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:50 am

Slim Cognito wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:45 pm
My friend in GB has tried to explain this to me, as well. She mentioned a possible eventual "no confidence" vote. I don't understand what happens next.
A "no confidence" vote means a majority of the elected MPs think the government can't do its job. It triggers a round of negotiation to try and form a government and, if that fails, there is an election.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motions ... ed_Kingdom
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1094

Post by Slim Cognito » Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:06 am

Thank you.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1095

Post by RTH10260 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:47 am

Will there be a US‑UK trade deal after Brexit?
oliver wright, policy editor
august 6 2019, 12:00pm, the times

Last month President Trump said that Britain and the United States were working on a “very substantial” trade deal that increase trade by “three to four, five times”. Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, have also talked up the prospect.

But while the Trump administration is responsible for negotiating trade deals, the authority to authorise them lies with Congress. This is a big problem for the UK. Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House of Representatives, has made clear that the Democrats will not support any trade deal if a no-deal Brexit results in a hard border in Ireland.


paywall https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -p8bg6fwr3

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1096

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:15 am

Meh. Trump will just issue an executive order.

(Of course, that won't increase trade one iota, but the point is to be doing something.)

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1097

Post by Whatever4 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:23 pm

"[Moderate] doesn't mean you don't have views. It just means your views aren't predictable ideologically one way or the other, and you're trying to follow the facts where they lead and reach your own conclusions."
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1098

Post by Reality Check » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:32 pm

I have posted links to Phil Moorhouse's Youtube videos before. His YouTube channel "A Different Bias" has dozens of excellent videos on Brexit. In the latest he makes a good case that taking the UK out of the EU on October 31st violates both the Lisbon Treaty and the UK law and Constitution.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1099

Post by Hurtzi » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:16 pm

Reality Check wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:32 pm
I have posted links to Phil Moorhouse's Youtube videos before. His YouTube channel "A Different Bias" has dozens of excellent videos on Brexit. In the latest he makes a good case that taking the UK out of the EU on October 31st violates both the Lisbon Treaty and the UK law and Constitution.

"UK law and Constitution?"

There are lots of laws in GB, some very old, but a Constitution is nowhere to be found.
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#1100

Post by Mikedunford » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:18 pm

The UK has an unwritten constitution and a large body of constitutional law.
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