LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

User avatar
Lani
Posts: 4903
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2012 4:01 pm
Location: Some island in the Pacific

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#926

Post by Lani » Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:41 pm

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove under fire on Vote Leave’s law-breaking
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... al-dropped
Conservative leadership candidates Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are facing growing calls to account for illegal behaviour by the official Vote Leave Brexit campaign.

The group has dropped its appeal against the Electoral Commission’s ruling that it broke the law by channelling hundreds of thousands of pounds of donations to an ostensibly independent campaign group, BeLeave.

When the Observer revealed evidence a year ago that Vote Leave had broken spending rules, Johnson attacked the report on Twitter as “utterly ludicrous” and said it had “won … legally”. A Johnson adviser said on Saturday that the former foreign secretary would not comment on the end of the appeal.

Labour deputy leader Tom Watson called on Johnson to recognise the campaign acted illegally. “I’m sure the man who seeks to be your prime minister will acknowledge … Vote Leave broke the law,” he said on Twitter.
Also, from MP Anna Soubry:
“Johnson and Gove should be providing a full and proper explanation to the British people following the dropping of this appeal.” She added she expected to one day see a “public inquiry into what happened and how we got into this terrible mess”.
And Liberal Democrat MP Layla Moran:
“It is now incumbent on the government to act. We have heard minister after minister say the referendum is valid. This is proof it was not,” she said. “Going ahead with Brexit in these circumstances would be the biggest betrayal of our democracy of all.”


Insert signature here: ____________________________________________________

User avatar
fierceredpanda
Posts: 2294
Joined: Sun Apr 17, 2016 3:04 pm
Location: BAR Headquarters - Turn left past the picture of King George III

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#927

Post by fierceredpanda » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:17 am

I feel like at this point May should just announce that the UK has left the EU and wait a couple hours before shouting, "APRIL FOOL!"


"There's no play here. There's no angle. There's no champagne room. I'm not a miracle worker, I'm a janitor. The math on this is simple; the smaller the mess, the easier it is for me to clean up." -Michael Clayton

User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 23914
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:44 pm
Location: Texas Gulf Coast and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired Mechanical Engineer

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#928

Post by Volkonski » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:52 am

Image


Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 23914
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:44 pm
Location: Texas Gulf Coast and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired Mechanical Engineer

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#929

Post by Volkonski » Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:41 pm

Four motions chosen for tonight's votes

https://www.cnn.com/uk/live-news/brexit ... a7a672c030
Motion C, Customs Union -- This motion calls on the government to ensure that the Brexit plan includes a permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU.

Motion D, Common Market 2.0 -- This proposal wants the Political Declaration -- which covers the future relationship between the UK and the EU -- to be renegotiated so that the UK joins the European Free Trade Association, through which is retains its membership of the European Economic Area, or Single Market. The UK would also seek to negotiate a "comprehensive customs arrangement" with the EU.

Motion E, Confirmatory public vote -- Parliament would not be allowed to ratify any Brexit deal until it has been confirmed by a referendum.

Motion G, Parliamentary Supremacy -- This motion has a series of actions. If the no withdrawal agreement has been agreed by noon on April 10, the UK must seek a delay to Brexit from the bloc. If the EU does not agree to a further extension, then government must allow MPs to choose between leaving without a real and revoking Article 50, which would scrap the Brexit process altogether.


Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 23914
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:44 pm
Location: Texas Gulf Coast and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired Mechanical Engineer

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#930

Post by Volkonski » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:23 pm

Brexit votes: MPs fail to back proposals again


The results of the votes were:

Motion C: Committing the government to negotiating "a permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU" as part of any Brexit deal - proposed by Tory former chancellor Ken Clarke - lost by 273 votes for to 276 votes against

Motion D: Referred to as Common Market 2.0, this option would mean joining the European Free Trade Association and European Economic Area - proposed by Tory MP Nick Boles - lost by 261 votes for to 282 votes against

Motion E: This is for a confirmatory referendum, giving the public a vote to approve any Brexit deal passed by Parliament before it can be implemented - proposed by Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson - lost by 280 votes for to 292 votes against

Motion G: The motion aims to prevent the UK leaving without a deal, including a vote on whether to revoke Article 50 - stopping Brexit - if the EU does not agree to an extension - proposed by the SNP's Joanna Cherry - lost by 191 votes for to 292 votes against


Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 23914
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:44 pm
Location: Texas Gulf Coast and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired Mechanical Engineer

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#931

Post by Volkonski » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:26 pm

Image


Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

User avatar
Mikedunford
Posts: 10461
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2010 9:42 pm

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#932

Post by Mikedunford » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:32 pm

This could get dumber. And it probably will. I just don't quite see how that's going to happen yet.

But at this point, I'd say the odds are running about 35% May's deal gets through on the 4th try, 40% no deal crash-out, and the other 25% is something that nobody can predict right now.


"I don't give a fuck whether we're peers or not."
--Lord Thomas Henry Bingham to Boris Johnson, on being asked whether he would miss being in "the best club in London" if the Law Lords moved from Parliament to a Supreme Court.

User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 10396
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: With Pete Buttigieg and the other "open and defiant homosexuals" --Bryan Fischer AFA
Occupation: "Do Nothing Democrat Savage" -- Donald, 9/28/19 and "Scalawag...Part of an extreme, malicious leftist internet social mob working in concert with weaponized, socialized governments to target and injure political opponents.” -- Walt Fitzpatrick

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#933

Post by Orlylicious » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:52 pm

Are there odds on if Brexit just gets cancelled? Saw the revote provision went down, but really, after so much after-the-fact debate and considering things seem deadlocked in government, why not revote this and have a true mandate whatever happens? Just keep hearing all the people saying they didn't bother to vote... they won't miss it this time. If the goal is really what people choose, what's the downside of another vote? I hope the UK stays in the EU.


Photo: Merry Christmas from the titular Mama June. Santa (aka Sugar Bear) and her lovely family!
Hey! Don't miss The Fogbow's Favorite TV Show starring the titular Mama June Shannon -- "Mama June: From Not To Hot!"

User avatar
Suranis
Posts: 17036
Joined: Sat Nov 20, 2010 7:04 am

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#934

Post by Suranis » Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:05 pm

The downside of another vote is that the Brexit people will lose, basically.

And the Tories WILL tear themselves apart, and Labour MIGHT tear itself apart.


Learn to Swear in Latin. Profanity with class!
https://blogs.transparent.com/latin/lat ... -in-latin/

User avatar
Mikedunford
Posts: 10461
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2010 9:42 pm

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#935

Post by Mikedunford » Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:21 pm

Orlylicious wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:52 pm
Are there odds on if Brexit just gets cancelled? Saw the revote provision went down, but really, after so much after-the-fact debate and considering things seem deadlocked in government, why not revote this and have a true mandate whatever happens? Just keep hearing all the people saying they didn't bother to vote... they won't miss it this time. If the goal is really what people choose, what's the downside of another vote? I hope the UK stays in the EU.
Having that discussion with someone on Twitter now.

I'd say the odds of revoking Article 50 are near enough 0 as to make no difference. A failsafe plan that could have led to that in the event of a lack of agreement in the next week was one of the options voted down tonight. Theresa May could secure her reputation for posterity by unilaterally voting to revoke, but she won't. She's too committed to ending freedom of movement (and too stubborn) to do that on her own. And, in plain terms, while a huge portion (quite possibly a majority) of the British population are against Brexit, *none* of the key parties are.

The Tories have been officially pro-Brexit since the referendum. And while many of their members are pro-business and anti-Brexit (although that number dropped by one tonight), they've got their fair share of hardline ant-Europe people.

Labour is hamstrung by Corbyn. He's never been strongly pro-European, in part because he's viewed Europe as a barrier to the creation of a socialist utopia, and he's kept the official party line pro-Brexit, although he prefers a weaker version than May. He's also been accused (I think with justification) of cynically positioning himself to be the one in line to pick up the pieces after May breaks everything. And - not a minor consideration - a good chunk of Labour's pickup in 2017 was white working-class people coming back to Labour from UKIP.

And the DUP is made up of a group of hardliners, some of whom have long been convinced that the EU is a papist plot.


"I don't give a fuck whether we're peers or not."
--Lord Thomas Henry Bingham to Boris Johnson, on being asked whether he would miss being in "the best club in London" if the Law Lords moved from Parliament to a Supreme Court.

User avatar
Dan1100
Posts: 3579
Joined: Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:41 pm

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#936

Post by Dan1100 » Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:25 pm

Interestingly, the SNP seems to be legitimately trying to stop Brexit and especially a no deal Brexit, although it seems like the clearest path toward Scottish independence, which is their ultimate goal.


"Devin Nunes is having a cow over this."

-George Takei

User avatar
HilltownGrrl
Posts: 460
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:21 pm
Location: WMass
Occupation: Researcher (for a non-fiction author); local child-wrangler; thread killer; piler of things on other things

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#937

Post by HilltownGrrl » Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:54 pm

Like everyone else, I have no clue what's going to happen but watching the votes & debates in Parliament over the last week+ has me leaning, today at least, toward the UK crashing out. What an unbelievable mess this all is.


Image

BruceHollandRogers
Posts: 130
Joined: Thu May 07, 2015 5:50 pm

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#938

Post by BruceHollandRogers » Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:54 pm

I lived in London for two years and have friends and family in the UK. Many people I know will suffer diminished prospects with a no-deal Brexit.

However, for Europe and the world, I think that the UK crashing out of the EU may be the best outcome in the long run for everyone BUT Britain. The UK is going to remain badly divided and poorly led, and their continued participation in the EU parliament would only weaken that body's ability to deal with real problems. Also, a crash out for the UK and the ensuing chaos in Ireland and appeals for Scotland to leave the union would help to solidify the lesson that other European states have already learned: All talk of EU exit has pretty much ceased even in extreme right parties across Europe. A whole generation already sees, but could use confirmation of the reality: Better in than out.

I'm sorry, though, that the cuts to social services and public facilities that engendered the anger that became Brexit didn't result in a swing to Labour and an actual attempt to solve the problems of economic decline. The Tories said, "Well, we bailed out the banks with your funds, but now we have nothing left for you ordinary punters." The Left should have campaigned on social justice as an EU ideal. The problem hollowing out working and rural Britain wasn't the EU. It was Tory austerity. The success of the EU vindicates internationalism, vindicates socialism, vindicates the Left. But Corbyn supported Leave! What an idiot! I can see the reluctance to vote Labour as long as Corbyn is leader.



User avatar
Gregg
Posts: 3212
Joined: Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:09 am
Location: Cincinnati, OH USA
Occupation: We build cars

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#939

Post by Gregg » Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:00 am

Dan1100 wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:25 pm
Interestingly, the SNP seems to be legitimately trying to stop Brexit and especially a no deal Brexit, although it seems like the clearest path toward Scottish independence, which is their ultimate goal.

Well, they're not willing to destroy the village in order to save it.


Honorary Commander, 699th Airborne Assault Dachshund Regiment
Deadly Sausage Dogs from the Sky

User avatar
fierceredpanda
Posts: 2294
Joined: Sun Apr 17, 2016 3:04 pm
Location: BAR Headquarters - Turn left past the picture of King George III

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#940

Post by fierceredpanda » Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:18 am

Gregg wrote:
Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:00 am
Dan1100 wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:25 pm
Interestingly, the SNP seems to be legitimately trying to stop Brexit and especially a no deal Brexit, although it seems like the clearest path toward Scottish independence, which is their ultimate goal.

Well, they're not willing to destroy the village in order to save it.
:yeah:

Much as the SNP often comes off as the party of child-like naivete and utopian thinking (looking at you, Mhairi Black), they seem to be very much aware that the likely negative externalities of the UK crashing out of the EU are too monstrous to contemplate, even if the probable next shoe to drop would be Scottish independence. While my political sympathies lie left-of-center, the common tendency on the Left toward Leninist thinking - specifically the maxim of "the worse, the better" - has always been something for which I have absolutely no tolerance. I very much applaud the SNP for rejecting the path of amoral cynicism to accomplish their objectives. The political world would be in better shape right now if more parties would follow that example.


"There's no play here. There's no angle. There's no champagne room. I'm not a miracle worker, I'm a janitor. The math on this is simple; the smaller the mess, the easier it is for me to clean up." -Michael Clayton

User avatar
RTH10260
Posts: 22617
Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 8:52 am
Location: Near the Swiss Alps

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#941

Post by RTH10260 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 9:48 am

Another Brexit extension will come with punishing conditions attached

Bruno Waterfield

If the UK wants to avoid crashing out of the European Union with a longer delay to Brexit, it will have to sign up to some toxic terms and conditions.

After another debacle in the House of Commons last night, Michel Barnier, the EU’s lead negotiator, began to spell out some of the strings that will be attached to another Brexit delay.

“Such an extension would carry significant risks for the EU, therefore a strong justification would be needed,” he said this morning. “Many businesses in the EU warn us against the cost of extending uncertainty. It could pose a risk on our decision-making autonomy.”

If the Commons impasse continues, Theresa May will be forced to choose between no-deal Brexit or a long delay to…


Remainder behind paywall https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -7tdt38fp7



User avatar
RTH10260
Posts: 22617
Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 8:52 am
Location: Near the Swiss Alps

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#942

Post by RTH10260 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 9:50 am

No-deal Brexit more likely by the day, says Michel Barnier
EU negotiator says strong justification needed to extend article 50 beyond 22 May

Daniel Boffey in Brussels
Tue 2 Apr 2019 09.36 BST First published on Tue 2 Apr 2019 08.30 BST

Michel Barnier has said a no-deal Brexit is “very likely” and becoming more likely by the day after the Commons rejected all the alternative solutions to Theresa May’s deal.

Speaking in Brussels, the EU’s chief negotiator said Britain would need to take responsibility should a “positive majority” to avoid a looming cliff-edge Brexit on 12 April fail to emerge in the next few days.

“No deal was never our desired or intended scenario,” Barnier told an audience at a thinktank event. “But the EU27 is now prepared. It becomes, day after day, more likely.”

“This is a serious crisis and no-one can be pleased with what is happening in the UK currently”, he added.

Three scenarios were set out by the EU official: agreement this week on the prime minister’s deal or a variant of it, no deal, or a long extension to article 50 requiring “a strong justification”.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... el-barnier



User avatar
RTH10260
Posts: 22617
Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 8:52 am
Location: Near the Swiss Alps

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#943

Post by RTH10260 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 9:54 am

In some other news report a different member of the EU negotiators mentioned that the "long extension" would mean two years and of course implied that the UK vote to cancel Brexit in that time frame. Likely with fresh elections in the mean time.



User avatar
Mikedunford
Posts: 10461
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2010 9:42 pm

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#944

Post by Mikedunford » Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:18 am

As I sit here, looking out my window toward the buildings of the London School of Economics, the Shard in the background, I can't help but consider the virtual certainty that we have yet to hit peak stupid.


"I don't give a fuck whether we're peers or not."
--Lord Thomas Henry Bingham to Boris Johnson, on being asked whether he would miss being in "the best club in London" if the Law Lords moved from Parliament to a Supreme Court.

User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 10396
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: With Pete Buttigieg and the other "open and defiant homosexuals" --Bryan Fischer AFA
Occupation: "Do Nothing Democrat Savage" -- Donald, 9/28/19 and "Scalawag...Part of an extreme, malicious leftist internet social mob working in concert with weaponized, socialized governments to target and injure political opponents.” -- Walt Fitzpatrick

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#945

Post by Orlylicious » Tue Apr 02, 2019 9:51 pm

Agree Mike. This topic started Jun 11, 2016, unbelivable how they have failed. Thomas Friedman in the NY Times makes provocative but real points:
The United Kingdom Has Gone Mad
The problem with holding out for a perfect Brexit plan is that you can’t fix stupid.
By Thomas L. Friedman Opinion Columnist April 2, 2019

LONDON — Politico reported the other day that the French European affairs minister, Nathalie Loiseau, had named her cat “Brexit.” Loiseau told the Journal du Dimanche that she chose the name because “he wakes me up every morning meowing to death because he wants to go out, and then when I open the door he stays in the middle, undecided, and then gives me evil looks when I put him out.”

If you can’t take a joke you shouldn’t have come to London right now, because there is political farce everywhere. In truth, though, it’s not very funny. It’s actually tragic. What we’re seeing is a country that’s determined to commit economic suicide but can’t even agree on how to kill itself. It is an epic failure of political leadership.

I say bring back the monarchy. Where have you gone, Queen Elizabeth II, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

Seriously, the United Kingdom, the world’s fifth-largest economy — a country whose elites created modern parliamentary democracy, modern banking and finance, the Industrial Revolution and the whole concept of globalization — seems dead-set on quitting the European Union, the world’s largest market for the free movement of goods, capital, services and labor, without a well-conceived plan, or maybe without any plan at all.

Both Conservative and Labour members of Parliament keep voting down one plan after another, looking for the perfect fix, the pain-free exit from the E.U. But there is none, because you can’t fix stupid.

The entire Brexit choice was presented to the public in 2016 with utterly misleading simplicity. It was sold with a pack of lies about both the size of the benefits and the ease of implementation, and it continues to be pushed by Conservative hard-liners who used to care about business but are now obsessed with restoring Britain’s “sovereignty” over any economic considerations.

They don’t seem to be listening at all to people like Tom Enders, C.E.O. of the aerospace giant Airbus, which employs more than 14,000 people in the U.K., with around 110,000 more local jobs connected to its supply chains. Enders has warned the political leadership here that if the U.K. just crashes out of the E.U. in the coming weeks, Airbus may be forced to make some “potentially very harmful decisions” about its operations in Britain.

“Please don’t listen to the Brexiteers’ madness which asserts that ‘because we have huge plants here we will not move. …’ They are wrong,” he said. “And, make no mistake, there are plenty of countries out there who would love to build the wings for Airbus aircraft.”


I understand the grievances of many of those who voted to leave the E.U. For starters, they felt swamped by E.U. immigrants. (The E.U. should have protected the U.K. from that surge; that was German and French foolishness.) There are reportedly some 300,000 French citizens living in London, which would make it one of the biggest French cities in the world. I had a drink with a member of Parliament in the bar in the House of Commons on Tuesday, and as we sat down he whispered to me that “not a single person working in this whole building is British.”
Hidden Content
This board requires you to be registered and logged-in to view hidden content.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/opin ... ss&emc=rss


Photo: Merry Christmas from the titular Mama June. Santa (aka Sugar Bear) and her lovely family!
Hey! Don't miss The Fogbow's Favorite TV Show starring the titular Mama June Shannon -- "Mama June: From Not To Hot!"

User avatar
RTH10260
Posts: 22617
Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 8:52 am
Location: Near the Swiss Alps

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#946

Post by RTH10260 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:59 pm

May will seek fresh Article 50 extension and sit down with opposition to find a Brexit solution

By Pascale Davies with Reuters• last updated: 02/04/2019 - 23:41

British Prime Minister Theresa May called for a further delay to Brexit beyond April 12 on Tuesday and said a "short extension" to Article 50 is needed.

May said she understood some people are "so fed up with the delay" that they want to leave with no-deal but said the best option was to leave with one and wanted the process to be finished by May 22 so that the UK does not have to take part in the European Parliament election.

The prime minister said she was "offering to sit down" with the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, to agree a plan to break the political stalemate. But she said a deal must include her withdrawal agreement, which British MPs have previously rejected three times.

“I am offering to sit down with the leader of the opposition and to try to agree a plan - that we would both stick to - to ensure that we leave the European Union and that we do so with a deal,” she said.

May's decision offers the prospect of keeping the UK more closely economically tied to the EU but it is a gamble as it risks division in her Conservative Party, as half her MPs want a clear split with the bloc.


https://www.euronews.com/2019/04/02/wat ... et-meeting



User avatar
Mikedunford
Posts: 10461
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2010 9:42 pm

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#947

Post by Mikedunford » Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:20 am

May has shown her hand. This is a fairly cynical attempt to put Labour in a position where they have to either be the ones to bail out May by voting for her thrice-killed plan, or be the ones responsible for no deal because they refuse to vote for her plan. Evading both would require a modest amount of skill on the part of a Labour leader, so Labour is kind of hosed.

By removing some of the unknowns, this does change my prior estimates a bit. I'd say May has increased the odds of getting her plan through by 5%, bringing that to 40%. However, she's also increased the odds of No Deal by 10%, to 50%. That leaves about a 10% chance that they manage to throw something together that leads to them accepting a long extension on April 10th.

This presumes that the EU only offers a long extension, not a short one.


"I don't give a fuck whether we're peers or not."
--Lord Thomas Henry Bingham to Boris Johnson, on being asked whether he would miss being in "the best club in London" if the Law Lords moved from Parliament to a Supreme Court.

User avatar
Suranis
Posts: 17036
Joined: Sat Nov 20, 2010 7:04 am

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#948

Post by Suranis » Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:32 am

I've been actually pretty pessimistic on the whole thing of avoiding a crashout for a while now. I dont think its going to happen. And frankly, at this point, I think that its in the interests of the EU to allow it to happen. To give them some kind of get out of jail card would be lunacy, and people need to be shown the consequences of unbridled ego and where the right winger rhetoric leads to. It frankly would be the best way to quell internal dissent in the EU. The UK has expertly created a situation where the EU is better off without it.

If May is on the track of trying to deflect blame, then the odds of a crashout just shot up.


Learn to Swear in Latin. Profanity with class!
https://blogs.transparent.com/latin/lat ... -in-latin/

User avatar
fierceredpanda
Posts: 2294
Joined: Sun Apr 17, 2016 3:04 pm
Location: BAR Headquarters - Turn left past the picture of King George III

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#949

Post by fierceredpanda » Wed Apr 03, 2019 8:10 am

Mikedunford wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:20 am
May has shown her hand. This is a fairly cynical attempt to put Labour in a position where they have to either be the ones to bail out May by voting for her thrice-killed plan, or be the ones responsible for no deal because they refuse to vote for her plan. Evading both would require a modest amount of skill on the part of a Labour leader, so Labour is kind of hosed.

By removing some of the unknowns, this does change my prior estimates a bit. I'd say May has increased the odds of getting her plan through by 5%, bringing that to 40%. However, she's also increased the odds of No Deal by 10%, to 50%. That leaves about a 10% chance that they manage to throw something together that leads to them accepting a long extension on April 10th.

This presumes that the EU only offers a long extension, not a short one.
I agree in part and disagree in part.

I fully agree that Corbyn is an inept Leader of the Opposition, and have said so for some time. I also agree with you on the substance of May's strategy and the cynicism it embodies. Where I disagree is that voters will blame Labor if the UK ends up crashing out. While I'm ordinarily all in favor of assuming that voters are fairly stupid, I just don't see how British voters could be dumb enough to blame Labor for the inevitable end result of a referendum that was the sole brainchild of hard right elements in the Tory party that David Cameron seized upon as a sop to UKIP going into the 2015 general election. The basic principle of "you break it, you bought it" would seem to apply.

Much as I hate to fall back on Marxist theory to explain literally anything at all, it seems to me that any British voter who assigned responsibility for a Brexit train-wreck to the party which, in the main, opposed Brexit from the start would be a remarkable example of false consciousness at work.

Which isn't to say that isn't true. Here in the US, the party that inherits a mess is all too frequently criticized by the party that created said mess for cleaning up too slowly. And now I'm depressed. I blame the Wisconsin Supreme Court result last night.


"There's no play here. There's no angle. There's no champagne room. I'm not a miracle worker, I'm a janitor. The math on this is simple; the smaller the mess, the easier it is for me to clean up." -Michael Clayton

User avatar
Suranis
Posts: 17036
Joined: Sat Nov 20, 2010 7:04 am

Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#950

Post by Suranis » Wed Apr 03, 2019 8:16 am

fierceredpanda wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 8:10 am
Which isn't to say that isn't true. Here in the US, the party that inherits a mess is all too frequently criticized by the party that created said mess for cleaning up too slowly. And now I'm depressed. I blame the Wisconsin Supreme Court result last night.
Well, you have to remember that there was 2 good Democratic Victories last night as well. Don't let the step back erase the 2 steps forward, otherwise you will drive yourself into depression.


Kyle Griffin
‏Verified account @kylegriffin1

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Democrat and Navy vet Pam Iovino has won the special election for Pennsylvania's 37th Senatorial District, defeating her Republican opponent. The seat has been largely controlled by Republicans the past half-century. https://t.co/mBpJKBESFt


Learn to Swear in Latin. Profanity with class!
https://blogs.transparent.com/latin/lat ... -in-latin/

Post Reply

Return to “Current Events”