The fires and floods of climate change

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TollandRCR
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The fires and floods of climate change

Post by TollandRCR » Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:14 pm

South Australia, at the beginning of the fire season, is already experiencing the worst bushfires in 30 years. Temperatures on Sunday were around 31o C, and winds were up to 40km/h. There were also small outbreaks in Victoria.





Earlier, the Greens leader, Christine Milne, said the government “really must put their climate denial behind them” because such an approach was “costing the country dearly”.



“Every year, we are going to face these extreme weather events which are going to cost lives and infrastructure. Enough is enough,” Milne said.



“The Abbott government has to stop climate denial and help to get the country prepared to adapt to the more extreme conditions.”





http://i.guim.co.uk/static/w-700/h--/q- ... 0x612.jpeg



Suburbs of Adelaide Friday.
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Re: The fires of climate change

Post by TollandRCR » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:45 am

The snow pack in California's Sierra Nevada mountains is believed to be at a 500-year low. (Satellite observations from that period are still misplaced in the archives.) This is true in Oregon as well. El Niño may increase rainfall in Southern California this winter, but the state's reservoirs are in Northern California. Whether this is due to climate change or interannual variation will be a dispute for years. In the meantime, California and Oregon (Washington?) need to adapt to a new reality whatever its cause.
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Re: The fires of climate change

Post by Jim » Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:00 pm

Study: Man-made heat put in oceans has doubled since 1997
"Scientists have long known that more than 90 percent of the heat energy from man-made global warming goes into the world's oceans instead of the ground. And they've seen ocean heat content rise in recent years. But the new study, using ocean-observing data that goes back to the British research ship Challenger in the 1870s and including high-tech modern underwater monitors and computer models, tracked how much man-made heat has been buried in the oceans in the past 150 years.

The world's oceans absorbed approximately 150 zettajoules of energy from 1865 to 1997, and then absorbed about another 150 in the next 18 years, according to a study published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change.

To put that in perspective, if you exploded one atomic bomb the size of the one that dropped on Hiroshima every second for a year, the total energy released would be 2 zettajoules. So since 1997, Earth's oceans have absorbed man-made heat energy equivalent to a Hiroshima-style bomb being exploded every second for 75 straight years."

:snippity:

Jeff Severinghaus at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography praised the study, saying it "provides real, hard evidence that humans are dramatically heating the planet.""
Maybe the deniers will start to believe when man-eating sharks move ashore.

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Re: The fires of climate change

Post by Volkonski » Thu Feb 18, 2016 9:38 am

Climate change impacts close to home: How rising water temperatures and sea levels are affecting Long Island Sound

http://riverheadlocal.com/2016/02/18/cl ... and-sound/
From rising sea levels to declining cold-water fish populations, global effects of climate change are playing out right here at home, according to the Long Island Sound Study.

Slowly increasing temperatures in the Sound are blamed for a decline in cold-water species like lobster and winter flounder and an increase in summer flounder and scup, which typically thrive in more southern regions
.
Sea levels in the Sound have also been increasing at a similar or slightly greater rate than global sea level increases, with an average increase in the Sound of almost one inch per decade.

These impacts are examined in a new website for residents that explains the impacts of climate change in the Long Island Sound, which was launched last week by a partnership of government agencies and organizations known as the Long Island Sound Study.
They have data-

http://longislandsoundstudy.net/
The above graph shows the trend of lobster abundance in the fall (note that no data are available for 2010). The spring index for American lobster has also been steadily declining, but is now higher than the fall index. Both indices have remained below the time-series average since 2003, with the fall index now at only about 2% of the average, and less than 1% of the peak value. The spring index fares slightly better, at about 10% of the historic average. One of the factors implicated in the lobster population decline is increased summer water temperatures in Long Island Sound.
Twenty years ago lobster were so abundant that it seemed like every North Fork farm stand was also selling lobsters. Mrs. V. and I would have them for a quick lunch. But lobster landings peaked in New York in 1996 and now have dropped essentially to none. :(

On the other hand the oyster harvest has increased a bit over the last few years.
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Re: The fires of climate change

Post by TollandRCR » Thu Feb 18, 2016 12:50 pm

Shrimp depletion in Gulf of Maine part of a pattern across the globe
Marine scientists see the collapse of local shrimp stocks as part of a global pattern reflecting the impact of rising sea temperatures.

Regulators canceled the Maine shrimp season Wednesday, citing dwindling shrimp populations in the Gulf of Maine. But the implosion of northern shrimp stocks here is part of a larger trend across the North Atlantic. Stocks within fishing grounds from Labrador to Norway are in sharp decline, indicating that warming ocean temperatures are affecting the species’ abundance and ability to reproduce, according to fishery biologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
...
Once plentiful, the shrimp population in the Gulf of Maine is at record-low levels. Its population this year is estimated to be at only 3 percent of the average population going back to 1984, when scientists began monitoring the species.

At the same time, the sea surface temperature on the coast of Maine in February and March, when female shrimp release their eggs, has increased. In Boothbay Harbor, where scientists have been recording sea temperatures since 1905, the average temperature in 2010 to 2012 – years with poor shrimp larvae survival rates – was 39.5 degrees, 2.5 degrees warmer than the average temperature from 1984 to 2009.
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Re: The fires of climate change

Post by Volkonski » Thu Feb 18, 2016 3:02 pm

Mostly bad news all around for North Atlantic fish and shellfish. :(

When I was a boy all the fresh fish you could purchase in SE Massachusetts was locally caught. This was mostly the case on Long Island when I moved there after grad school in the early 1970's.

Now most of the seafood one can buy on the North Fork is imported. The lobsters and mussels come from Canada. The bay scallops from S. America. The shrimp from Mexico or SE Asia. Salmon from the Northern Pacific. The clams are mostly local but supplies of the long necked steamer clam are spotty. There are some local bay scallops in the winter at scary prices. Sometimes local bluefish are available. Local oysters occasionally in season. Local porgies are usually available. It has been a while since I have seen smelts. Restaurants buy up most of the local LI seafood (especially flounder, oysters, cod and steamers).

Looking back this change happened very quickly. When I was a boy, poor people ate smelts and salt codfish. Lobster rolls and fried long-necked clams were sold as casual snacks alongside hot dogs and hamburgers at beachside stands and were comparatively priced.
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Re: The fires of climate change

Post by Volkonski » Tue Feb 23, 2016 10:03 am

Seas Are Rising at Fastest Rate in Last 28 Centuries

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/scien ... .html?_r=0
The increasingly routine tidal flooding is making life miserable in places like Miami Beach; Charleston, S.C.; and Norfolk, Va., even on sunny days.

Though these types of floods often produce only a foot or two of standing saltwater, they are straining life in many towns by killing lawns and trees, blocking neighborhood streets and clogging storm drains, polluting supplies of freshwater and sometimes stranding entire island communities for hours by overtopping the roads that tie them to the mainland.

:snippity:

The change in frequency of those tides is striking. For instance, in the decade from 1955 to 1964 at Annapolis, Md., an instrument called a tide gauge measured 32 days of flooding; in the decade from 2005 to 2014, that jumped to 394 days.

Flood days in Charleston jumped from 34 in the earlier decade to 219 in the more recent, and in Key West, Fla., the figure jumped from no flood days in the earlier decade to 32 in the more recent.
Just some anecdotal evidence that we see.

North Fork

Every time there are very high storm tides it is possible that RT 48 (North Road) will wash out at Hashamomuck. One day soon this will happen cutting the 5 easternmost miles of the NF's gas and fresh water lines.

Iron Pier Beach now has to be rebuilt each year after the winter storms. Some nearby houses have been lost as the sand cliffs erode. Others have had to be moved away from the edge so they are not lost.

Downtown Riverhead's parking area and some streets flood due to very high tides several times a year.

Scituate MA

Peggotty Beach is washing away. Many cottages on the beach are already gone. In the last big snow storm waves overtopped the beach entirely. The only reason it remains is that they truck in new sand.

Harbor area flooding happens much more frequently than just a few years ago.

Baytown area, TX

Since we have been here a whole subdivision had to be abandoned. Very high tides threaten low lying roads a few times a year.
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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by TollandRCR » Fri May 06, 2016 11:40 am

BBC News May 5 2016 'Perfect storm' of El Niño and warming boosted Alberta fires
El Niño and ongoing climate change have both contributed to the devastating Alberta wildfires according to experts.

The weather phenomenon has caused much drier conditions than normal, leading to a massive increase in the number of fires in the province.

Alberta has had 330 wildfires already this year, more than double the recent annual average.

Global warming has also seen wildfire seasons lengthen considerably since 1979, according to studies.

The temperature anomaly around the fire area in Alberta shows a significant deviation from the norm
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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by Flatpointhigh » Wed May 11, 2016 4:07 pm

and, in our government, only politicians are denying that the climate is undergoing a profound change.

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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by TollandRCR » Tue May 17, 2016 8:13 am

The New Yorker May 5 2016 Fort McMurray and the Fires of Climate Change by Elizabeth Kolbert.
Though it’s tough to pin any particular disaster on climate change, in the case of Fort McMurray the link is pretty compelling. In Canada, and also in the United States and much of the rest of the world, higher temperatures have been extending the wildfire season. Last year, wildfires consumed ten million acres in the U.S., which was the largest area of any year on record. All of the top five years occurred in the past decade. In some areas, “we now have year-round fire seasons,” Matt Jolly, a research ecologist for the United States Forest Service, recently told the Times.

“You can say it couldn’t get worse,” Jolly added, but based on its own projections, the forest service expects that it will get worse. According to a Forest Service report published last April, “Climate change has led to fire seasons that are now on average 78 days longer than in 1970.” Over the past three decades, the area destroyed each year by forest fires has doubled, and the service’s scientists project that it’s likely to “double again by midcentury.” A group of scientists who analyzed lake cores from Alaska to obtain a record of forest fires over the past ten thousand years found that, in recent decades, blazes were both unusually frequent and unusually severe. “This extreme combination suggests a transition to a unique regime of unprecedented fire activity,” they concluded.

All of this brings us to what one commentator referred to as “the black irony” of the fire that has destroyed most of Fort McMurray.
“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by TollandRCR » Tue May 17, 2016 9:24 am

Slate May 6 2016 We Need to Talk About Climate Change 14.7k 1.2k 808 Tragedies like the Fort McMurray fire make it more important, not less. by Eric Holthaus
Many people have expressed outrage at the fact that climate change is being mentioned as a contributing cause to this fire. It is “insensitive” to the victims to bring up something so political at a time like this, they argue.

I want to be clear: Talking about climate change during an ongoing disaster like Fort McMurray is absolutely necessary. There is a sensitive way to do it, one that acknowledges what the victims are going through and does not blame them for these difficulties. But adding scientific context helps inform our response and helps us figure out how something so horrific could have happened. We’ve reached an era where all weather events bear at least a slight human fingerprint, which, as Elizabeth Kolbert points out in the New Yorker, means “we’ve all contributed to the latest inferno.” That’s a scientific fact. We need to talk about what we want to do with that information. Since climate change is such a pressing global problem, there’s no better time to have that conversation than now—when we can see what exactly inaction might continue to cause.

This tragedy, like all tragedies, has aspects that are contested and political. Discussing the likely causes and contributing factors of a disaster in real time help us cope, but more than that, they help us figure out the best way of preventing future disasters. Though uncertainty still reigns among those working to put out the fire in Fort McMurray, there are certain facts that we do know: Experts have warned for years that Alberta’s forests are being primed for “catastrophic fires.” We know that. In the boreal forest, once the winter snowpack melts, the exposed dry brush serves as perfect kindling—which is why this time of year marks the start of fire season. We know that. Record warm temperatures, a vanishingly small snowpack, and drought conditions—all of which are symptoms of climate change in boreal Canada—very probably made this fire worse. “This [fire] is consistent with what we expect from human-caused climate change affecting our fire regime,” said Mike Flannigan from the University of Alberta.
...
Beyond all of the political reasons why climate change has become such a charged topic, the social science hints at why truly accepting the threat of climate change is so difficult for so many people: Doing so means accepting that our current way of life, our means of survival, even, are potentially untenable. Accepting climate science can mean accepting that our means of supporting ourselves are impossible. In other words, accepting climate science can threaten our very identities. It is understandable that people would react with fear, anger, and, yes, even vitriol. That does not mean, however, that climate change is not happening, and we should not take it seriously. It simply means the path forward will often require intense personal sacrifice. That is no small thing.
“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by TollandRCR » Tue May 17, 2016 2:42 pm

The Guardian May 15 2016 Canada wildfire: why a sleeping giant awoke in Alberta and became relentless

The Guardian May 12 2016 The arsonists of Fort McMurray have a name
Fossil fuel corporations are causing the climate change fuelling mega-fires – and they should be footing the bill for the devastation

Today, twice as much land in Canada is being devoured by fires as in the 1970s—and that will double or quadruple again in the decades to come. Climate change is putting such pressure on the boreal, which covers most of northern Canada, that a study published last year in the journal Science issued a stark warning: “this forest will convert to a type of savannah.”
IMHO, it is too early to declare where the liability lies for the Alberta fires of May 2016. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation long predates the era of fossil fuels, and it was especially strong this year. Climate change may or may not strengthen this phenomenon. On the other hand, it is irresponsible to ignore the reality of climate change.
“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by TollandRCR » Thu May 26, 2016 9:10 am



Global Ocean Circulation
Ocean circulation is the large scale movement of waters in the ocean basins. Winds drive surface circulation, and the cooling and sinking of waters in the polar regions drive deep circulation.
Melting Greenland ice sheet may affect global ocean circulation, future climate
"The AMOC [Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation] transports a large amount of heat into the North Atlantic where it is given up to the atmosphere and helps regulate the climate in Europe and North America. The major effect of a slowing AMOC is expected to be cooler winters and summers around the North Atlantic, and small regional increases in sea level on the North American coast," explained Chambers.

According to Dixon, the global impacts are less certain, but potentially more consequential.

"The AMOC and Gulf Stream are part of a complex global ocean circulation system that is still not completely understood," said Dixon. "If human activities are starting to impact this system, it is a worrying sign that the scale of human impacts on the climate system may be reaching a critical point."
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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by TollandRCR » Fri May 27, 2016 8:42 am

Frontline May 26 2016 How Federal Flood Maps Ignore the Risks Of Climate Change
Overwhelming scientific evidence shows climate change is leading to rising sea levels and more extreme storms. But you might not know it by looking at the federal government’s flood hazard maps.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency maps flood plains across the country. The maps are intended to show which areas are likely to flood so that local governments can better plan for disasters. They also determine who must buy flood insurance, and at what rates.

The problem is, many of them aren’t up to date. And even the latest maps don’t take into account the anticipated effects of climate change, which will dramatically impact the potential for flooding.

“They’re a very good tool for understanding what your flood risk was,” said Robert Moore, a senior policy analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council. “They tell you considerably less about what your flood risk will be.”
Frontline May 24 2016 The Business of Disaster
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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by Suranis » Fri Apr 14, 2017 6:38 pm

Found this very interesting article on what "An Inconvienent Truth" got right and wrong on its 10th aniversery. Its a very fair article, so dont expect climate denialism at all.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cha ... ient-truth
As research mounted, scientists around the world from fields as diverse as chemistry and astronomy were coming to grips with a newfound truth: Carbon dioxide spewed by fossil fuel burning and other greenhouse gases were warming the world at an alarming rate, potentially threatening the health and livelihoods of millions of people. Despite the gravity and urgency of their findings, the scientists’ warnings fell mostly on deaf ears for years.

Until 2006. Six years after his unsuccessful presidential campaign, Al Gore reentered the national spotlight to release An Inconvenient Truth, which heavily featured Thompson’s mountaintop research. Thompson missed the premiere of the documentary because he was gearing up to return to South America’s vanishing ice. But the film did what he and other researchers had been unable to do: “It got climate change on the radar,” Thompson says. Last December, Gore was on hand in Paris as 195 nations committed to the most ambitious pledge yet to fight back against climate change and curb carbon emissions (SN: 1/9/16, p. 6).

In the 10 years since the movie sparked increased public discussion, climate scientists have made major advances. More observations, faster climate-simulating computers and an improved understanding of the planet’s inner workings now provide a clearer window on how Earth’s climate will change.

Some of the bold forecasts of the 2006 movie are holding, and others are on an accelerated track. A few of the most dire warnings need revising, says Thompson, at Ohio State University in Columbus. And plenty of questions remain. In a controversial paper in March in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, researchers argued that the effects of climate change could be even more severe and sudden than current predictions.
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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by TollandRCR » Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:22 pm

Nature provides beauty while she threatens lives.

The Anza-Borrego Desert State Park March 8-15 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJcXn4RjeO4
“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by vic » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:32 pm

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/t ... -seriously
WH Adviser: We Take Climate Change ‘Seriously’ — Just Not What Causes It

White House homeland security adviser Tom Bossert on Monday insisted that President Donald Trump’s administration takes climate change “seriously” with regard to effect, just not so much when it comes to cause.

“Are these storms giving this administration some pause when it comes to the issue of climate change and homeland security?” a reporter asked Bossert during the daily White House briefing, referring to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

“Causality is something outside of my ability to analyze right now,” Bossert replied. “I will tell you that we continue to take seriously the climate change, not the cause of it, but the things that we observe.”

He said the White House would “have to do a larger trend analysis at a later date.”
If only I could believe them. While I accept that there is anthropogenic climate change, it isn't really necessary to accept that in order to work on the problem. All they need to accept is that we can mitigate climate change via changes in human behavior.

But apparently now is not the time to realize that "larger trend analysis" has been done for decades now.

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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by maydijo » Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:33 am

I have a friend who doesn't believe humans cause global warming, but is of the opinion that humans are basically slobs, so as far as she's concerned we should do everything we can to help the environment because we suck and the planet deserves better. I'm okay with that.

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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by Foggy » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:15 am

A drunk is in an accident that kills the other driver.

But it happens in America, so he tells the cops "It's not the right time to talk about whether drinking and driving causes accidents."


For some odd reason, I'm not particularly proud that the US is the ONLY country where denial of climate change and its causes is a thing. Not proud we elected Trump, either. We suck, actually. Hopefully not for too much longer. :pray:
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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by maydijo » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:33 am

Foggy wrote:A drunk is in an accident that kills the other driver.

But it happens in America, so he tells the cops "It's not the right time to talk about whether drinking and driving causes accidents."


For some odd reason, I'm not particularly proud that the US is the ONLY country where denial of climate change and its causes is a thing. Not proud we elected Trump, either. We suck, actually. Hopefully not for too much longer. :pray:
Not the only country by far. The denialists are in Australia too, and let's not forget Lords Monckton.

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Re: The fires and floods of climate change

Post by Foggy » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:48 am

OK, but we still suck. :thumbs:



For now. :towel:
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