Here comes Nate

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Chilidog
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Here comes Nate

Post by Chilidog » Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:46 pm

A festering mass of thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean has gradually become better organized and was declared the 16th tropical depression of Atlantic hurricane season Wednesday morning by the National Hurricane Center. The depression is likely to become the season’s 14th named storm, called Nate, very soon.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... 5de74d4580

If I was a religious man, I'd think God was angry at Trump voters.

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Suranis
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Suranis » Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:18 pm

Or Nate Silver. :mrgreen:
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Volkonski
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Volkonski » Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:24 pm

With all the storms the FEMA disasterassistance.gov website has been overwhelmed. I have not been able to log in for a few days now.

It will be just our luck that Nate will hit an area of the Gulf Coast that has so far not been badly affected this year.
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kate520
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by kate520 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:07 pm

Chilidog, he is ROYALLY pissed.

Gee, I wonder why this thought has not occurred to Pat Robertson? He knew immediately 8 years ago whose fault hurricanes were. :roll: :evil:
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Dan1100
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Dan1100 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:15 pm

kate520 wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:07 pm
Chilidog, he is ROYALLY pissed.

Gee, I wonder why this thought has not occurred to Pat Robertson? He knew immediately 8 years ago whose fault hurricanes were. :roll: :evil:
What did Pat Robertson say now? I really hope that hurricanes aren't caused by masturbation.
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maydijo
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by maydijo » Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:17 pm

Your guys. You read what he said after the shooting. God's not pissed at Trump voters, he's pissed at people who refuse to bow down before Trump. I, for one, was convinced by the wisdom of that Godly man, and I don't want to be a part of the problem anymore. So from now on, I will respect the orange shit gibbon dotard with the strangely child-size hands which are certainly not an indication that he is undersized anywhere else.

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Chilidog
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Chilidog » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:03 pm

Dan1100 wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:15 pm


What did Pat Robertson say now? I really hope that hurricanes aren't caused by masturbation.
That would be Trump voters, right? ;)

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Sterngard Friegen
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:16 pm

kate520 wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:07 pm
Chilidog, She is ROYALLY pissed.

Gee, I wonder why this thought has not occurred to Pat Robertson? He knew immediately 8 years ago whose fault hurricanes were. :roll: :evil:
FIFY

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vic
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by vic » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:25 pm

Dan1100 wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:15 pm
kate520 wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:07 pm
Chilidog, he is ROYALLY pissed.

Gee, I wonder why this thought has not occurred to Pat Robertson? He knew immediately 8 years ago whose fault hurricanes were. :roll: :evil:
What did Pat Robertson say now? I really hope that hurricanes aren't caused by masturbation.
Thank goodness I have a protector on my keyboard. Otherwise I'd be trying to clean Earl Grey tea from it.

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kate520
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by kate520 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:50 pm

:lol:
Patriotism is the last refuge of a Scoundrel.
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Lunaluz
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Lunaluz » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:45 pm

I follow this guy during hurricane season...he has been pretty accurate and explains things well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Volkonski » Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:37 am

Nate now forecast to come onshore at LA-MS border. That area didn't suffer much from Harvey or Maria so there is a lot of damage to be done. :( Trump should plan his trip there now. ;)

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Orlylicious
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Orlylicious » Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:02 pm

This season is taking everybody out, it's horrible. Now Cancun may get a Cat 1 or 2 tomorrow night, this storm is fast and it's not too early to be making preparations, and could be a Cat 1 or 2 on the gulf coast over the weekend.
Thursday SHIPS model Rapid Intensification Index gave Nate a 40% chance of being a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds by 8 am Friday, 12 hours before it will make its closest pass to the Cozumel/Cancun area. The way this hurricane season has gone, it is safer to predict intensification at the upper end of what our intensity models are predicting, and residents and visitors in Cozumel/Cancun should expect that Nate will be a Category 1 hurricane Friday evening when it makes its closest pass.

A hurricane watch and tropical storm warnings are now in effect for the resort cities of Cancun and Cozumel and other parts of the northeast Yucatan. Nate’s rains will not be as heavy here as in Central America, but local totals of 12” or more are possible. High tide at Cozumel and Cancun is at 9:37 pm CDT Friday, and it will be one of the highest high tides to the year, due to the full moon. Tidal range at Cozumel/Cancun between low and high tide is only about 0.6 - 0.8 feet (.18 - .25 meters), so the timing of Nate’s storm surge with respect to the high tide is less important than we see for most locations along the U.S. coast.
Nate's landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast

Interaction with the flat terrain of the Yucatan may have little impact on Nate’s strength, but it is also possible that passage over the Yucatan will disrupt the storm’s core and halt strengthening for a half-day or so. As Nate begins moving away from the Yucatan Peninsula early Saturday, it will be moving into a zone of much stronger upper-level steering, which will pull the storm to the north or north-northwest at an accelerating rate. Nate is expected to cross the Gulf of Mexico in 24 to 30 hours, an unusually rapid clip. Nate’s potential strengthening will be blunted by the wind shear associated with the strong steering flow, as well as by the rapid motion itself, which will limit its time over water. As Nate approaches the Gulf Coast, it will encounter cooler SSTs and a lower oceanic heat content, which may slow or halt intensification.
***
Models agree that Nate will make landfall between late Saturday night and midday Sunday, most likely somewhere between southeast Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle. There was a significant shift west in the model consensus on Wednesday night: the European and other models fell into line with the GFS, which had been calling for a more leftward track into far southeast Louisiana. This is a good time to keep in mind that even a superior model overall (such as the Euro) may not be the best model on any given storm or on any given day. The Euro and GFS aren't so much like a pro baseball pitcher and a high-school pitcher; they are more like two excellent pro pitchers, one of whom has slightly better stats, but either of whom might pitch the better game next Saturday night.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/tropi ... -hurricane


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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Foggy » Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:08 pm

Jeez, it's headed straight toward N'awlins and/or Jackson.

:nooo:

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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by RTH10260 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:32 pm

Volkonski wrote:
Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:37 am
Nate now forecast to come onshore at LA-MS border. That area didn't suffer much from Harvey or Maria so there is a lot of damage to be done. :( Trump should plan his trip there now. ;)

Do you suggest a lucrative investment in paper tissue rolls :?: :P

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Orlylicious
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Orlylicious » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:16 am

2am Nate 7A
7A Nate.JPG

Tight models:
Image
Models 0z.JPG
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Patagoniagirl » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:28 am

TS Nate has killed 28 people so far in Central America from Panama to Nicaragua. The article linked below says 22, but they failed to include 4 adults and 2 children killed in a landslide the province where my farm is located. I have pictures of the road from Volcán to Rio Sereno (how I get to my place) and it is completely blocked by giant trees and landslides. More rain is expected.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... are_btn_fb

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Patagoniagirl
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Patagoniagirl » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:33 am

The bridge is over a fifty-foot gorge.
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by maydijo » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:56 am

I'm sorry. It always seems a bit worse when it's a place you know and love

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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:45 am

Dan1100 wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:15 pm
kate520 wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:07 pm
Chilidog, he is ROYALLY pissed.

Gee, I wonder why this thought has not occurred to Pat Robertson? He knew immediately 8 years ago whose fault hurricanes were. :roll: :evil:
What did Pat Robertson say now? I really hope that hurricanes aren't caused by masturbation.
:rotflmao:
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Patagoniagirl
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Patagoniagirl » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:13 am

maydijo wrote:
Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:56 am
I'm sorry. It always seems a bit worse when it's a place you know and love
Nothing to be sorry about! I am concerned also about some Bowzers who may be affected as well as everyone in the path of any of natures fury.

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Sugar Magnolia
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Sugar Magnolia » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:22 am

They've already issued hurricane watches all along the Gulf. I just wish they didn't always hit at night.

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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by RVInit » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:25 am

Patagoniagirl wrote:
Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:13 am
maydijo wrote:
Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:56 am
I'm sorry. It always seems a bit worse when it's a place you know and love
Nothing to be sorry about! I am concerned also about some Bowzers who may be affected as well as everyone in the path of any of natures fury.
:thumbs:
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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by Volkonski » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:03 pm

Edited. Now showing 10-20% 20-30% chance of Nate bringing TS force winds to the North Fork. :?

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Re: Here comes Nate

Post by maydijo » Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:06 pm

It's almost beyond belief that there's another hurricane the way. Stay safe, everyone.

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