is it a forgery ? give your logarithmic probability !

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is it a forgery ? give your logarithmic probability !

#26

Post by Whatever4 »

All the books and videos etc. exist because some people have an agenda that doesn't include accepting actual facts.
"[Moderate] doesn't mean you don't have views. It just means your views aren't predictable ideologically one way or the other, and you're trying to follow the facts where they lead and reach your own conclusions."
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#27

Post by realist »

gsgs wrote:Mikedunford,if the probability is so small, then why do you explainall the books and videos and blogs and posse and discussion ?--------------------------------------sorry, I meant "how" , not "why"It's already been explained above and many times over on this forum. There's no point reinventing the wheel.Just because there's discussion of some subject does not give it any creedence. The books,etc., are simply attempts at smear and to make a few birther bucks. The "posse" is a complete farce and devoid of any evidence or facts proving anything except they lie a lot and don't mind doing so. Also they sell the lies (the info in the pressers)... more birther bucks.
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#28

Post by kate520 »

Has anyone voted in this poll? I won't, so I can't tell.
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#29

Post by Sugar Magnolia »

Mikedunford,if the probability is so small, then why do you explainall the books and videos and blogs and posse and discussion ?Obviously some of these people are probably smarter than you and me.They can still be wrong on this, but how likely ?Have we seen such a phenomenon before ?I know, there was UFO, Marsface,"truthers" about 9/11 conspiracy etc.and they were also (almost) debunked (afaik).But we also had wikileaks,watergate,Kennedymurder,...with some later confirmed strange things.Do we really know in these conspiracies with certainty in advance how it will end ?And how do YOU explain the books and videos and blogs and discussions from the Holocaust Deniers? Just because someone is smart enough to type on a computer doesn't mean they are smart.You are arguing that there must be something to the birther's argument because they are still talking about it. The Holocaust deniers are still talking about that too, so obviously there must be something to that argument also. Right?

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#30

Post by Sugar Magnolia »

Has anyone voted in this poll? I won't, so I can't tell.Apparently, 6 people have. You can click 'see results' without having to vote.

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#31

Post by Mikedunford »

gsgs wrote:Mikedunford,if the probability is so small, then why do you explainall the books and videos and blogs and posse and discussion ?--------------------------------------sorry, I meant "how" , not "why"I understood what you meant. My answer is the same. I provided an explanation of why I believe the probability of a forgery is indistinguishable from zero for all practical purposes. If you think my assessment is wrong, show me the error. Saying that lots of people think that there was fraud is insufficient. It does not address my probability assessment. If you think I am wrong, you need to show where I made an actual error.
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#32

Post by kate520 »

:oops: :oops: Sometimes I think I'm too dumb to be a liberal. :lol:
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#33

Post by gsgs »

why are you obots and not birthers ? It's almost random, unpredictable.Your contacts, your genes, who knows.In that case you would probably vote differently.Assume a 1% chance that you are just a masked,temporarily "misled" birther and will return to birtherism,if only you think a lot about it, read enough birther-books,blogs,videos, get birther friends,,.This birtherism-studium is unlikely to happen, butassume it will and assume it's much more extensivethan what you had read so far.In that case, I think it's realistic to assume a >1% probabilitythat you will convert to birtherism.(are there examples of obots that became birthers ?)OK, now with 1% conversion rate by extensive studyingand just 10% doubt per birther, you'd have 0.1% ,much,much more than the 1e-7% that those 6 people voted

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#34

Post by neonzx »

why are you obots and not birthers ? It's almost random, unpredictable....(are there examples of obots that became birthers ?) ](*,)
To which Trump replied, Fuck the law. I don't give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.

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#35

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater »

why are you obots and not birthers ? It's almost random, unpredictable.Your contacts, your genes, who knows.In that case you would probably vote differently.Assume a 1% chance that you are just a masked,temporarily "misled" birther and will return to birtherism,if only you think a lot about it, read enough birther-books,blogs,videos, get birther friends,,.This birtherism-studium is unlikely to happen, butassume it will and assume it's much more extensivethan what you had read so far.In that case, I think it's realistic to assume a >1% probabilitythat you will convert to birtherism.(are there examples of obots that became birthers ?)OK, now with 1% conversion rate by extensive studyingand just 10% doubt per birther, you'd have 0.1% ,much,much more than the 1e-7% that those 6 people votedWe're not birthers because we're not stupid. Why don't you define the word Obot, what does it mean to you?

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#36

Post by listeme »

Your contacts, your genes, who knows.Genes. We're smart and we're honest.Hey, do a Venn Diagram. Put all birthers who are smart on it. Then put all birthers who are honest.There is no intersection. (It's a small enough set of either that you could do this quickly.)
We're used to being told it's our fault that men don't listen to us.

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#37

Post by MaineSkeptic »

why are you obots and not birthers ? It's almost random, unpredictable.And why are you playing silly games?If you think you've got convincing evidence that supports birtherism, tell us what it is. Give it your best shot. Pick one or two pieces of evidence that you find truly convincing, and see if we respond reasonably to it. Lay out your evidence against ours, see how your legal analysis stacks up against ours. These meta-discussions are obviously getting you nowhere. If you want to know why we've taken the positions we have, try discussing something of relevance.

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#38

Post by Epectitus »

why are you obots and not birthers ?Speaking only for myself. Because Birthism is founded on deliberate falsehoods and rank speculation, and I find it morally offensive.It's almost random, unpredictable.There is nothing random or unpredictable regarding who will or will not be a Birther.
"Hell, I would wear a dress and ruby red slippers all year if we can prove this" - Mike Zullo

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is it a forgery ? give your logarithmic probability !

#39

Post by Dallasite »

why are you obots and not birthers ? It's almost random, unpredictable.


Your contacts, your genes, who knows.


In that case you would [highlight]probably[/highlight] vote differently.


[highlight]Assume[/highlight] a 1% chance that you are just a masked,


temporarily "misled" birther and will return to birtherism,


if only you think a lot about it, read enough birther-books,


blogs,videos, get birther friends,,.


This birtherism-studium is unlikely to happen, but


[highlight]assume[/highlight] it will and [highlight]assume[/highlight] it's much more extensive


than what you had read so far.


In that case, I think it's realistic to [highlight]assume[/highlight] a >1% probability


that you will convert to birtherism.


(are there examples of obots that became birthers ?)


OK, now with 1% conversion rate by extensive studying


and just 10% doubt per birther, you'd have 0.1% ,


much,much more than the 1e-7% that those 6 people votedI think I'll [highlight]assume[/highlight] you are a birther.

Edit: I missed an assumption, and stupid auto-correct!
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#40

Post by rosy »

why are you obots and not birthers ? It's almost random, unpredictable. Your contacts, your genes, who knows. You are being completely ridiculous now. What is an "obot" in your mind? Is it a binary choice, obot or birther? Are all non-birthers supporters of President Obama?I imagine (but cannot prove) that the greater a person's level of education, the less likely they are to be a birther. The only way the birther narrative can be sustained (it still doesn't make sense) is by lying, so an honest person could not be a birther.

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#41

Post by kate520 »

You're making a whole lot of assumptions, gsgs. Are you suggesting that if we'd just study up more on the Birthers' questions we'd change our minds? Or was that a general statement? ](*,) In America, when you assume, you make an ASS of U and ME.
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#42

Post by gsgs »

I think for most people it's just the friends, family,the people that you like and respect. When thy arebirthers/obots then you become one.It's like religion. But more engaged and aggressive.----------------------Some weeks ago I was pretty sure that birtherswere wrong, having found Woodman's videos,seen how the Vogt,Irey,Zebest claims were debunkedat Dr.Conspiracy earlier in May 2011.So I offered a bet at another forum. Then I saw the Jan21 Gillar video and became uncertain, confused,retracted the bet offer.Did none of you have similar experiences ?Do you really think you are 99.9999999%immune to doubt ?

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#43

Post by realist »

Some weeks ago I was pretty sure that birthers


were wrong, having found Woodman's videos,


seen how the Vogt,Irey,Zebest claims were debunked


at Dr.Conspiracy earlier in May 2011.


So I offered a bet at another forum. Then I saw the


Jan21 Gillar video and became uncertain, confused,


retracted the bet offer.


[If watching anything Gillar changed your mind, that speaks for itself.]


Did none of you have similar experiences ?


[I can only speak for myself... no]


Do you really think you are 99.9999999%


immune to doubt ?Not immune to doubt at all. The difference is being able to do relevant research on facts and law and the ability to separate the liars and BSers from the truthful and reach a conclusion. The conclusion here is very simple... there's no doubt Obama is eligible to be president. There is nothing, nada, zip, zero credible to say otherwise.





It's not that difficult.
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#44

Post by Sugar Magnolia »

I think for most people it's just the friends, family,the people that you like and respect. When thy arebirthers/obots then you become one.It's like religion. But more engaged and aggressive.----------------------Some weeks ago I was pretty sure that birtherswere wrong, having found Woodman's videos,seen how the Vogt,Irey,Zebest claims were debunkedat Dr.Conspiracy earlier in May 2011.So I offered a bet at another forum. Then I saw the Jan21 Gillar video and became uncertain, confused,retracted the bet offer.Did none of you have similar experiences ?Do you really think you are 99.9999999%immune to doubt ?So no answer to the Holocaust question?Just like a birther to pick and choose what to respond to.

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#45

Post by Plutodog »

You've shown no indication of any appreciable level of intelligence, wit or wisdom, guenter. Maybe we should poll that (infinitesimal) number. :-k
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#46

Post by Whatever4 »

I think for most people it's just the friends, family,the people that you like and respect. When thy arebirthers/obots then you become one.It's like religion. But more engaged and aggressive.----------------------Some weeks ago I was pretty sure that birtherswere wrong, having found Woodman's videos,seen how the Vogt,Irey,Zebest claims were debunkedat Dr.Conspiracy earlier in May 2011.So I offered a bet at another forum. Then I saw the Jan21 Gillar video and became uncertain, confused,retracted the bet offer.Did none of you have similar experiences ?Do you really think you are 99.9999999%immune to doubt ?For most people here, it's examining the facts. It's not a religion. I approach each rumor or claim separately. Does it make sense? Is it plausible? Did someone misunderstand something and pass that misunderstanding on? What did the original say? If you were confused by the Gillar video, what was the specific claim? I don't believe much of what I read on eligibility without examining it myself. But whether or not the PDF was manipulated isn't really the issue. Is the INFORMATION on it correct? That's what's important, after all.
"[Moderate] doesn't mean you don't have views. It just means your views aren't predictable ideologically one way or the other, and you're trying to follow the facts where they lead and reach your own conclusions."
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#47

Post by MaineSkeptic »

Then I saw the Jan21 Gillar video and became uncertain, confused, retracted the bet offer.So, why don't you take me up on my offer from earlier today?Tell us what it was in the Gillar video that you found most persuasive. I'm sure there are people here who will discuss it in intricate detail with you. You, and we, can all show how we apply our intelligence and logic to evaluating data that's presented to us.You are claiming that we are operating on faith, like members of a religion. But I think you're bluffing. Let's see how we all do when specific facts are being discussed.

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#48

Post by Hektor »

Well, I think he's got me. I didn't randomly have a severe stroke causing brain damage before I read the first "Oblahblah was born in Kenya" diatribe back in early summer of 2008.For the record gsgs, I have spent the past four years reading with amusement about how the current President of the United States of America is ineligible in possibly (and at least) four simultaneous ways and yet somehow only a bunch of conspiracy theorist on the web (with plenty of paypal buttons) noticed. I have read birther arguments. They are often contradict with a lot of what the birthers have claimed previously. Indeed, the only constant in birfistan may that [The President] is guilty of [something] which [somehow magically] undoes every bill he signed, every EO he filed, every appointment he made and everything else he has done. Perhaps a second true constant is "Send Money." Most of us here could accurately sum up the "evidence" that the President was born in Kenya or explain the fabled two-parent citizen argument. But, I've read the court cases like Ankeny. I've read the repeated statements of the Hawaiian DoH that state unequivocally that President Obama was born in Hawaii. I've listened to lawyers here who have predicted the outcome of every birfer hearing with perfect accuracy. For me to believe the birthers, I'd have to have some reason to believe why the media, the courts, the Republican party, the state of Hawaii, congress, and many of their staffers would either actively or simply be complicit in engineering a Presidency that to many of those listed would not be in their political interest. Not only that, but there has never been a coherent point of what President Obama's usurpation gains anyone EXCEPT maybe PERHAPS Obama (if he wasn't caught and if he was a usurper). Instead we have rants about how the Communists and NWO are conspiring to destroy America.

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#49

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

Skeppy is always so patient.And always ignored by the birthers. They won't answer his direct questions because to do so exposes them as the intellectual failures and liars even they know they are.

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#50

Post by Mikedunford »

why are you obots and not birthers ? It's almost random, unpredictable.Your contacts, your genes, who knows....OK, now with 1% conversion rate by extensive studyingand just 10% doubt per birther, you'd have 0.1% ,much,much more than the 1e-7% that those 6 people votedYou asked us what we thought the probabilities were. I explained how I arrived at my estimate earlier, and in detail. I'll give you another chance to show me the error.In order for the birth certificate to be forged, at a bare minimum the following events must have occurred:1: There must be a need to forge the birth certificate.2: Officials in the White House must have decided that the political benefits of releasing a forged birth certificate even though there was no requirement that the President release any birth certificate at all outweighed the risks involved in getting caught.3: The President's personal lawyer would need to be involved.4: The Hawai'i Director of Health would need to be involved.5: The Hawai'i State Registrar would need to be involved.6: All other workers in vital records would need to be either actively involved or kept in the dark.7: A former Director of Health appointed by a Republican governor would have to be involved.8: Members of the White House press corps would either have to be involved or have not recognized the fraudulent raised seal. 9: The forgers would have to be sloppy enough to post a non-flattened work file after having printed the document and applied a forged seal. I believe that those events are all independent. I also personally believe that the chance of each one of those is no greater than 1/10th of 1%, which would make the overall probability less than 10^-27. If the probability of each of those is 1%, the probability is 10^-18. If the probability of each independent event is 10%, the overall probability is 10^-9. All of those are well into your lowest bracket. If you want me to assume that the probability is any greater than 10^-9, you need to show me a flaw in my reasoning - you need to show that some of the things that I list are not necessary requirement, or that the probabilities are substantially higher than I believe, or both. Appealing to public opinion - which is still what you are attempting - is insufficient.
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