New Diseases - Coronavirus

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Sterngard Friegen
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2501

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

The massive death toll that would come from allowing the virus to burn through our country would be tragic and horrendous. But what would be even worse is that our health system, such as it is, would be completely destroyed as doctors and nurses tried to save people. The deaths among health professionals would be akin to the loss of first responders on 911 -- on a national scale.

Nobody talks about that because it's absolutely terrifying.

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tek
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2502

Post by tek »

Sugar Magnolia wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:37 pm
And Nissan just announced their shut down.
Neither our government nor our media seems to be able to see beyond first-order effects.

This is not hard. We bellow about essential services, but don't note that everything that isn't an essential service is gonna stop (or at least gonna get kicked in the nuts)

Why is it the media exists? I forget.
There's no way back
from there to here

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Lani
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2503

Post by Lani »

Hawaii covid-19 confirmed cases just rose to 16. So 0 to 16 since March 4th.

Each island is asking tourists to go elsewhere (preferably stay home), and shutdowns are rising quickly.

Just now I received a notice that my island has a curfew & more: The curfew will be in effect from 9 p.m. through 5 a.m. daily until further notice. Every individual on island must remain in their residence during these specified hours. (Exceptions include commuting, medical attention, deliveries, etc.) Airline travel to and from the island should be limited to essential needs only. (Doubt that's enforceable.)

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AndyinPA
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2504

Post by AndyinPA »

"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead." -- Thomas Paine

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Sterngard Friegen
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2505

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

I don't think the American people can stay put for the 2-3 months that, at an absolute minimum, it will take to flatten the curve for the first wave.

That being the case, there will be enormous pressure to get out new drugs and vaccines without appropriate testing. And that will either work or make things even worse.

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2506

Post by fierceredpanda »

I just saw someone on a friend's Facebook thread (basically a bunch of boomers talking about how this whole thing is overhyped) say that it's only bad in China because they are communists, and it's only bad in Italy because they have socialized health care. I had tried protesting earlier by raising Italy, and another person waved that away by saying "I don't know anyone in Italy."

:brickwallsmall: :brickwallsmall: :brickwallsmall: :brickwallsmall: :brickwallsmall: :brickwallsmall: :brickwallsmall: :brickwallsmall:

Is it bad of me that I really wanted to reply that these arrogant morons were exactly the kind of people most likely to be killed by the virus, and to suggest perhaps the planet and humanity in general would be better off without them? Because I gave it serious thought.
"There's no play here. There's no angle. There's no champagne room. I'm not a miracle worker, I'm a janitor. The math on this is simple; the smaller the mess, the easier it is for me to clean up." -Michael Clayton


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pipistrelle
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2507

Post by pipistrelle »


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Danraft
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2508

Post by Danraft »

Agreed.
But that's not what I suggested.
Stratify (classify and separate) risk groups.

If the healthcare system isn't overloaded, and there are sufficient ventilators etc, the mortality rate is low for those that go into ICU.

But, more importantly, those people at high risk (like yourself) have the highest mortality and should be kept away from the rest.

This year, 57 million people got the flu. For which this is community immunity. "Flattening the curve" for 300+ million people will cause severe hardship and tremendous loss.

Governing means finding a way through this that both saves lives and the economy.
For whatever reason, children are not appearing to be high risk. College students and young adults have minimal symptoms (as a rule with exceptions that the medical system can handle).

Imagine if four weeks from now those people were no longer vulnerable or capable is spreading the disease. Or, if all the first responders, high contact people were also "control rods" incapable of spreading the infection.

This is exactly the endpoint that "flattening the curve" is trying to get to.

But, we are treating all people as if they are in mortal danger. Flattening the curve prolongs this for over 9-months.
Insanity.
Yes, this would have to be carefully done. But, only a small segment of the population has savings or can work from home.

"Flattening the curve" should really be about titrating the need for ICU care-- similar, but not the same.
Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:43 pm
The massive death toll that would come from allowing the virus to burn through our country would be tragic and horrendous. But what would be even worse is that our health system, such as it is, would be completely destroyed as doctors and nurses tried to save people. The deaths among health professionals would be akin to the loss of first responders on 911 -- on a national scale.

Nobody talks about that because it's absolutely terrifying.
The Mercury Project

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Sterngard Friegen
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2509

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

The Darwin Awards committee will be busy this year.

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pipistrelle
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2510

Post by pipistrelle »

But, we are treating all people as if they are in mortal danger.
As someone who is in mortal danger, I get why treating everyone as though at equal risk of dying is problematic and how the alternative is appealing. On the flip side, it sounds like some people have died who didn't seem to be at particularly high risk. I'm also not sure that everyone who is at high risk knows it. I've heard a few people surprised to find out that once you hit 65, you're considered elderly and at risk. They don't feel at risk (being what they consider to be a healthy 65+).

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Danraft
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2511

Post by Danraft »

The discussions are certainly interesting.
The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global- ... ronavirus/
The Mercury Project

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AndyinPA
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2512

Post by AndyinPA »

All our lives have been changed forever in ways we would never have dreamed of six months ago.
"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead." -- Thomas Paine

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pipistrelle
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2513

Post by pipistrelle »

AndyinPA wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:01 pm
All our lives have been changed forever in ways we would never have dreamed of six months ago.
Or six days or six weeks ago.

Except for Individual-1. He's been on top of it all along.

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2514

Post by Whatever4 »

Why it’s important to avoid small gatherings.

Coronavirus Ravages 7 Members of a Single Family, Killing 3
The matriarch of the large New Jersey family died Wednesday night without ever knowing that her two oldest children had died before her.

Four other children who contracted coronavirus remain hospitalized, three of them in critical condition, the relative, Roseann Paradiso Fodera, said.

:snippity:

A person who had contact with a man who died in New Jersey on March 10, becoming the state’s first coronavirus-related fatality, had attended a recent Fusco family gathering, the state’s health commissioner, Judith M. Persichilli, has said. :snippity:

Ms. Paradiso Fodera said the gathering was a routine Tuesday dinner.

“A party to most people was a regular dinner to them,” she said before counting names on a family tree that listed 27 grandchildren.

The gathering is believed to be the source of the virus, and information about the number of people infected there led to a new intensity in Ms. Persichilli’s warnings over the weekend against even small get-togethers with friends or relatives.

“I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to take personal responsibility and to avoid even small gatherings,” Ms. Persichilli said during a press briefing on Sunday.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/nyre ... d=fb-share
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2515

Post by RVInit »

Day two of working from home ended the same as Day one. The traffic outside my house was just as busy as it has been on any other day. I have an appointment to see my doctor later today. They called yesterday to ask me a series of questions regarding travel, do I have any symptoms, etc. Most of the patients at my specialist are older, sounds like my doctor's office is taking precautions.
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2516

Post by Volkonski »

pipistrelle wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:06 pm

Sadly I am not surprised after reports of largish gatherings like weddings and such continuing to be held in that community.
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Suranis
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2517

Post by Suranis »

Slim Cognito wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:25 pm
ZekeB wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:26 pm
“People are dying from this who weren’t dead before.”
Is that an actual quote? Because I can't tell any more.
No. it's an old internet joke put into a new mouth

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump ... ed-before/

The sad thing is that it was plausible.
The difference between the Middle Ages, and the Age of the Internet, is that in the Middle Ages no-one thought the Earth was flat.

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pipistrelle
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2518

Post by pipistrelle »

“They’re young and they don’t have any underlying conditions,” Ms. Paradiso Fodero said.
Referring to the middle-aged children.

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2519

Post by Volkonski »

:roll:

Preparing for ‘the 7th level of hell,’ Boise health care firm lays off 53 people

https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/cor ... fpld5qRPig
“This is going to haunt me forever,” Nate Poulson, the chief executive of Boise Anesthesia Physician Associates, said Tuesday.

He and other physicians who own the company had just laid off 53 nurse anesthetists.

:snippity:

As local hospitals work to prevent the novel coronavirus from spreading, and gear up for a wave of COVID-19 patients, some are canceling all non-urgent surgeries. That’s a large percentage of the surgeries that happen in the Treasure Valley — like knee replacements and back surgeries. And it’s the main source of revenue for Boise Anesthesia.

:snippity:

Saint Alphonsus Health System decided to postpone “all elective and non-emergent surgeries and invasive procedures until at least June 1,” it said Wednesday in an emailed statement.
Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2520

Post by Volkonski »

:roll:
Ben Jacobs
@Bencjacobs
·
8h
A Georgia state senator went to the doctor on Saturday for a cough and mild fever and got a coronavirus test. On Monday, he felt better and showed up to vote. Today, the test came back positive and the entire state legislature is now self isolating.
Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2521

Post by Volkonski »

:( :madguy:
CBS News
@CBSNews
·
12m
Louisiana pastor holds church service for over 300 people, defying governor's coronavirus ban https://cbsn.ws/2UhbQIc
Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2522

Post by Bill_G »

Danraft wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:01 pm
So, here's my COVID-19 concept.
Stratify the risk groups and expose low risk to the virus while the high risk are sheltered in place.

Burn it out.
In forest fires, it's called back burning. Take away the fuel. Not a bad concept at all. Not just flatten out the disease curve - stay ahead of the economic curve.

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pipistrelle
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2523

Post by pipistrelle »


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2524

Post by RTH10260 »

China reports zero local infections, a major turning point.

For the first time since the coronavirus crisis began, China on Thursday reported no new local infections for the previous day, a milestone in its costly battle with the outbreak that has since become a pandemic, upending daily life and economic activity around the world.

Officials said 34 new coronavirus cases had been confirmed, all involving people who had come to China from elsewhere.

In signaling that an end to China’s epidemic might be in sight, the announcement could pave the way for officials to focus more on reviving the country’s economy, which nearly ground to a halt after the government imposed travel restrictions and quarantine measures. In recent days, economic life has been resuming in fits and starts.

within https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/worl ... -news.html

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pipistrelle
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2525

Post by pipistrelle »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html
Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and a senior adviser, has created his own team of government allies and private industry representatives to work alongside the administration’s official coronavirus task force, adding another layer of confusion and conflicting signals within the White House’s disjointed response to the crisis.

But Kushner’s team is causing confusion among many officials involved in the response, who say they are unsure who is in charge given Kushner’s dual role as senior adviser and Trump family member. Some have privately dubbed his team a “shadow task force” whose requests they interpret as orders they must balance with regular response efforts.

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