New Diseases - Coronavirus

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RTH10260
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4901

Post by RTH10260 »

A California prison has one of the nation’s largest clusters of cases.

At least 850 inmates and 11 staff members at a federal prison in California have tested positive for the coronavirus, the largest outbreak in the federal prison system, according to federal data.

More than 70 percent of the 1,162 inmates at Federal Correctional Institution Lompoc in Santa Barbara County have contracted the virus, according to data from the Bureau of Prisons, underscoring how the pandemic continues to sweep through prisons and jails, where social distancing is nearly impossible and conditions are often unsanitary.

In an effort to control the spread of the virus, F.C.I. Lompoc has suspended all prison visits and has barred inmates from using telephones and email stations until May 18. The restrictions have prompted protests from the families of some inmates.

“People are dying, and we don’t know how our family is in there,” Alexandria Estrada of Tucson, Ariz., whose relative is incarcerated at Lompoc, told The Lompoc Record last month. “They won’t tell us.”


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/09/us/c ... nk-2bf5b78


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4902

Post by kate520 »

neonzx wrote: Sat May 09, 2020 8:47 pm https://mobile.twitter.com/passantino/s ... 7557536773
Jon Passantino@passantino
And Dr. Fauci tells CNN he is starting a "modified quarantine” for 14 days after the White House staffer tested positive for Covid-19
Fauci: Yes! Finally! Two whole weeks without that yammering lout braying in my ear!


DEFEND DEMOCRACY
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4903

Post by Whatever4 »

Very interesting, I highly recommend reading it.
The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.

As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.

:snippity:

But where are people contracting the infection in the community? I regularly hear people worrying about grocery stores, bike rides, inconsiderate runners who are not wearing masks.... are these places of concern? Well, not really. Let me explain.

In order to get infected you need to get exposed to an infectious dose of the virus; based on infectious dose studies with MERS and SARS, it is estimated that as few as 1000 SARS-CoV2 viral particles are needed for an infection to take hold. Please note, this still needs to be determined experimentally, but we can use that number to demonstrate how infection can occur. Infection could occur, through 1000 viral particles you receive in one breath or from one eye-rub, or 100 viral particles inhaled with each breath over 10 breaths, or 10 viral particles with 100 breaths. Each of these situations can lead to an infection.
Interesting bits:
Remember the formulae: Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus x Time
Greater than 10 minutes with an infected person in a face-to-face situation is potentially transmitted.
At least 44% of all infections--and the majority of community-acquired transmissions--occur from people without any symptoms

One asymptomatic carrier (A1) infected the following in a restaurant.
AB6FC48D-511B-4390-BD13-19F5AC7B49BF.png
One asymptomatic carrier in a call center. (Blue came down with virus)
AB6FC48D-511B-4390-BD13-19F5AC7B49BF.png
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-ri ... e5IImTSnXE
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MN-Skeptic
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4904

Post by MN-Skeptic »

:yeah:

My sister-in-law posted a link to that article yesterday on her Facebook page and it’s gotten a lot of shares out there. Very informative!


Joe Biden: "Wearing masks is not a political statement. It's a scientific imperative."

It’s the pandemic, stupid!
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4905

Post by Suranis »

I am unfortunatly debating idiots on the Comments of Snopes threads again. I really should just concentrate on smashing my head with a baseball bat. It would be healthier

Anyway, I thought this exchange would be informative and useful
Gregory Purcell Kim Dyer The US aircraft carrier Theodor Roosevelt saw 1,102 cases and 1 death.. that is a fatality rate of 0.09% less than 1/10th of one percent.... and you have been gas-lighted into believing the fatality rate is 10% On the French Aircraft carrier over a thousand tested positive no one has died. ..... https://www.maritime-executive.com/arti ... t-positive
{me} Gregory Purcell Oh wow. You mean a death rate among young people who are extremely physically fit, well fed and who have instant access to medical treatment was low. Wow.

Plus your numbers are far off anyway. The US military blog shows that across the navy there are 1,669 active cases, 27 hospitalised, 1,054 recovered, and 8 dead, for a total of 2,731 navy personnel affected right now.

That comes to about 0.3% fatality rate, and we can unfortunately assume that some of the 27 currently in hospital will die which will raise the percentage even more.

As it stands it still is 50% more than the 0.2% expected from people in the Navy age group, and is a fuckload bigger than the 0.09% that you were lying about. And that's leaving aside the long term damage to people.

In short your numbers fall apart when looked at in any sort of context. You are far less clever than you think you are. Yes, I google (or in my case duckduckgo) and actually look for numbers in context. Looking for numbers across the US navy was an obvious step rather than your fixating on one ship and thinking it proves something.

https://navylive.dodlive.mil/2020/03/15 ... 9-updates/


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4906

Post by Bill_G »

Foggy wrote: Sat May 09, 2020 11:39 am
... great propaganda—but dubious science.
In other words, it's perfect. :doh:


I'm so old I remember when we used to call this "The Information Age".

That has now been transformed into "The Disinformation Age" or "The War On Reality".


:resist:
My perfect plan for The Information Dirt Road is finally coming to fruition.


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4907

Post by Bill_G »

RTH10260 wrote: Sat May 09, 2020 11:06 pm
A California prison has one of the nation’s largest clusters of cases.

At least 850 inmates and 11 staff members at a federal prison in California have tested positive for the coronavirus, the largest outbreak in the federal prison system, according to federal data.
This is prove or disprove the herd immunity argument.


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4908

Post by RTH10260 »

Bill_G wrote: Sun May 10, 2020 9:30 am
RTH10260 wrote: Sat May 09, 2020 11:06 pm
A California prison has one of the nation’s largest clusters of cases.

At least 850 inmates and 11 staff members at a federal prison in California have tested positive for the coronavirus, the largest outbreak in the federal prison system, according to federal data.
This is prove or disprove the herd immunity argument.
The problem is the misunderstanding of the concept of herd immunity. It is only reached once a majority (around 80%) have gone thru the disease. Then the remaining potential patients can hope that they will miss the scarce carrier of the active virus and remain free of the disease by chance. Getting to the point of herd immunity without mitigation will crash the health care system as have a death count in the millions. Herd immunity will keep up an equilibrum, dropping below a threshold will bring back more infections. Seems that deniers of science are preparing for their Darwin Award.

ETA a small addition

ETA 2. Above scenario describes the natural biological way to herd immunity. The socially more accepted way of achieving herd immunity is by widespread aggressive vaccination campaigns. Once vaccines are available of course.


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4909

Post by Bill_G »

RTH10260 wrote: Sun May 10, 2020 10:11 am
The problem is the misunderstanding of the concept of herd immunity. It is only reached once a majority (around 80%) have gone thru the disease. Then the remaining potential patients can hope that they will miss the scarce carrier of the active virus and remain free of the disease by chance. Getting to the point of herd immunity without mitigation will crash the health care system as have a death count in the millions. Herd immunity will keep up an equilibrum, dropping below a threshold will bring back more infections. Seems that deniers of science are preparing for their Darwin Award.

ETA a small addition
Can ignorance be listed as COD in these cases?


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4910

Post by Volkonski »

Will there be anyone at the White House who is not in quarantine?
Jake Tapper
@jaketapper
·
20m
WH senior adviser Kevin Hassett told me he did today's
@CNNSotu
interview from a "remote van" because of his possible exposure to COVID19 at the WH, "and we've taken extra precautions to keep the people who hooked up the camera safe."


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4911

Post by RTH10260 »

:think: no rallys, no virus press conferences, what will a president do :?:
Sekrit Stuffs!
no - I don't believe individual-1 will be attempting to read his briefings.


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4912

Post by Volkonski »

Face The Nation
@FaceTheNation
·
2h
NEWS: New #coronavirus models from
@IHME_UW
show 137,184 deaths projected by the beginning of August, IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray tells
@margbrennan
on
@facethenation
Image


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4913

Post by Volkonski »

Face The Nation
@FaceTheNation
·
2h
NEWS:
@IHME_UW
's Director Christopher Murray thinks there will be a big increase in #coronavirus cases over the next ten days in places like Georgia where restrictions have been loosened and residents have become more mobile.


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4914

Post by jmj »

MN-Skeptic wrote: Sun May 10, 2020 7:04 am :yeah:

My sister-in-law posted a link to that article yesterday on her Facebook page and it’s gotten a lot of shares out there. Very informative!
It is a good article, but I fear that it states things with a bit too much certainty. For example, at one point, it links to a study that surveyed case reports for certain dates in certain parts of China (only from provinces outside Hubei/Wuhan). This study only considered "outbreaks" (i.e. infection events where at least 3 people were infected). Of those case studies, only one occurred outside. But this article summarizes that study with the following paragraph:
Importantly, of the countries performing contact tracing properly, only a single outbreak has been reported from an outdoor environment (less than 0.3% of traced infections).
The impression given by this sentence is that outdoor spread is essentially nonexistent. I don't know whether that's true or not, but I'm pretty sure you cannot draw that conclusion based only on this study.


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4915

Post by TexasFilly »

Yeah, everybody's an amateur epidemiologist now! I read a lot of stuff and really try to just quote people who have expertise. Also, too, people who are good at analyzing statistics and numbers, maybe someone who is an Engineer from MIT? :daydream:


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4916

Post by Sugar Magnolia »

TexasFilly wrote: Sun May 10, 2020 2:12 pm Yeah, everybody's an amateur epidemiologist now! I read a lot of stuff and really try to just quote people who have expertise. Also, too, people who are good at analyzing statistics and numbers, maybe someone who is an Engineer from MIT? :daydream:
My funny for yesterday was watching a back and forth on facebook between an artist friend and some goober who read some stuff on wiki about the 'rona and the efficacy of wearing masks. The funny part is that the goober didn't know the artist is a retired molecular biologist and this is her second career.

I just love it when that happens.


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4917

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

The 2019 Military World games were held in Wuhan in mid October. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_Games

That may explain the rapid spread worldwide as well as the fact that Europe was where the disease spread to New York and New Jersey.


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4918

Post by MN-Skeptic »

Sugar Magnolia wrote: Sun May 10, 2020 2:16 pm
TexasFilly wrote: Sun May 10, 2020 2:12 pm Yeah, everybody's an amateur epidemiologist now! I read a lot of stuff and really try to just quote people who have expertise. Also, too, people who are good at analyzing statistics and numbers, maybe someone who is an Engineer from MIT? :daydream:
My funny for yesterday was watching a back and forth on facebook between an artist friend and some goober who read some stuff on wiki about the 'rona and the efficacy of wearing masks. The funny part is that the goober didn't know the artist is a retired molecular biologist and this is her second career.

I just love it when that happens.
Yeah, that happened to my sister. She writes books about understanding Jesus within the context of his time. She has quite a few Facebook followers. She's been posting great articles about the coronavirus and sharing articles from the true experts in the field. She recently posted an article detailing why the virus was of natural origin and not synthesized in a lab. A few readers started posting their skepticism of the article. My sister responded with facts. They kept arguing. After a day of this, my sister got fed up. Most of her readers don't know her background. She basically said "Enough of this. I have a PhD in biology and my research was in molecular biology (the study of DNA and RNA). I have sequenced genes myself and so I understand exactly what this article is stating. I'm not going to argue with folks here just throwing out wild theories!"

I talked to her later. She wants to share important science-backed information and many of her followers appreciate it. But there's always a few crackpots.


Joe Biden: "Wearing masks is not a political statement. It's a scientific imperative."

It’s the pandemic, stupid!
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4919

Post by Lani »

Patients recovering from COVID-19 face some of the same obstacles as others who have been on ventilators, such as trouble swallowing and talking. They also often must work on their strength, as do many types of patients who are laid up in hospital beds for weeks on end.

But COVID-19 survivors also face some unique challenges. Therapists say patients recovering from severe cases of COVID-19 often tire very easily, after only a couple moments of activity. They may have significant fluctuations in blood pressure, such as very high when in bed and very low when doing therapy.

Some have developed kidney problems, some have had trouble with blood clots, and others are having cognitive issues, such as being unable to solve simple problems.

“It’s unlike anything I’ve seen, and I’ve been doing rehabilitation for a long time, almost 29 years,” said Dr. Michelle Gittler, medical director at Schwab Rehabilitation Hospital and chief medical officer of post-acute care for the Sinai Health System. “What we see are people who appear to have pretty good strength on initial testing, but if you test them again, they can’t even talk, they’re so short of breath, or people who may be able to stand up once and if you ask them to do it again, they cannot. They get exhausted.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... spartanntp


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4920

Post by Suranis »

It could be that they have less ability to bring Oxygen to their system. I wonder what their red cell count is?


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4921

Post by Volkonski »

Why the U.S. isn't prepared to meet overwhelming demand for a coronavirus vaccine
The nation’s supply chain isn’t anywhere close to ready.


https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/1 ... ges-245450
Then there are the supplies needed to package and distribute the vaccine itself. Each dose requires a vial, stopper, cap and packaging that keeps it stable through shipping. While the glass used for vials does not affect the vaccine, the stoppers are a tricky game: Manufacturers have to choose the right material, usually rubber or latex, that will not interact with the sensitive chemicals inside the vial.

:snippity:

The ability to switch products could be crucial as the entire world readies for a possible vaccine and vies to secure their supplies. The stopper business is not a very crowded field. A Pennsylvania company called West Pharmaceutical Services is one of the dominant players, churning out millions of products a day at 25 sites worldwide. Another major producer, Schott, is based in Germany.

:snippity:

But a medical glass shortage was already setting in before the Covid-19 pandemic emerged this year because of sand shortages in the U.S., Evercore analyst Vijay Kumar wrote in an investor note. Desert sand is too smooth to use, necessitating “angular” sand from river beds and mining that has been difficult to procure because of environmental laws and restrictions, he wrote.

:snippity:

A shortage of vials could interfere not just with the availability of a coronavirus vaccine but a range of other medicines, including sedatives and other drugs administered in hospitals. Government efforts to avert shortages would have to begin soon if they involve enlisting more manufacturers.


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4922

Post by RTH10260 »

:think: Looks like the tax breaks of individual-1 for companies was not enough to bring manufaturing back to the US?


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4923

Post by Danraft »

Regarding the Kawasaki type illness in children, there's a paper on SARS-1 which noted a similar occurance
Kawasaki disease is a systemic vasculitis of childhood; its etiology is unknown. We identified evidence of a novel human coronavirus, designated “New Haven coronavirus” (HCoVNH), in respiratory secretions from a 6-month-old infant with classic Kawasaki disease. To further investigate the possible association between HCoV-NH infection and Kawasaki disease, we conducted a case-control study. Specimens of respiratory secretions from 8 (72.7%) of 11 children with Kawasaki disease and from 1 (4.5%) of 22 control subjects (children without Kawasaki disease matched by age and the time the specimens were obtained) tested positive for HCoVNH by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (Mantel-Haenszel matched odds ratio, 16.0 [95% confidence interval, 3.4–74.4]; P = .0015). These data suggest that HCoV-NH infection is associated with Kawasaki disease
Association between a Novel Human Coronavirus and Kawasaki Disease


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4924

Post by Shizzle Popped »

https://apnews.com/1a169a537c6fb7f9ab824c49a6757b0c
WASHINGTON (AP) — With deaths mounting at the nation’s nursing homes, the White House strongly recommended to governors Monday that all residents and staff at such facilities be tested for the coronavirus in the next two weeks.

Why the government is not ordering testing at the the nation’s more than 15,000 nursing homes was unclear. Nor was it clear why it is being recommended now, more than two months after the nation’s first major outbreak at a nursing home outside of Seattle that eventually killed 45 people.

Vice President Mike Pence, who leads the White House coronavirus task force, told governors on a video conference call that it’s the federal government’s strong recommendation that such testing be done.

“We really believe that all 1 million nursing home residents need to be tested within next two weeks as well as the staff,” added Dr. Deborah Birx, the task force coordinator, according to a recording of the call obtained by The Associated Press.

:snippity:
Now? Seriously, they're just thinking of this now? What a bunch of incompetent morons.


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#4925

Post by Suranis »

Just look at it like this - everything they are doing now and from now on is going to be trying to shift blame.

In this case, it's to shift blame onto everyone else for the lack of testing. 2 weeks from now they will be saying "but we TOLD them to test in Nursing homes! States responsibility to get the tests! Not our fault! States not following recommendations!" etc.

It makes perfect sense when you look at it the right way.


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