New Diseases - Coronavirus

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Turtle
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2401

Post by Turtle »

Florida is gonna be a hotspot in a week or 2.

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2402

Post by Miss Meh »

Turtle wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:43 pm
Florida is gonna be a hotspot in a week or 2.

I'm just thinking of all those Spring Breakers getting infected on the beach & then bringing the virus home with them, yeesh.

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2403

Post by Addie »

via email
Foreign Policy: Free coverage. A select portion of essential coronavirus coverage is now available free on our site. Read the articles that are available here.
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2404

Post by Suranis »

69 more cases confirmed in Ireland, bringing the total to 292.

https://www.todayfm.com/news/69-new-cor ... lic-984337
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2405

Post by RoadScholar »

TexasFilly wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:07 pm
MN-Skeptic wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:34 pm
tek wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:56 pm
I guess the hope is that people who have had it won't get it again, but I don't know if that's been proven yet.
I’ve read that there is at least short term immunity after getting one of there viruses. I don’t think they know if it’s lifelong. The other possibility is if the virus mutates sufficiently so that you’re not immune to the mutated strain.
Somewhere way upthread Mr. V. :lovestruck: posted an article that referenced research being done at Peking University. Their working assumption seems to be that there are two strains of this, one they are calling COVID-19s, the other COVID-19L. The theory is that the latter version is more lethal, and it is possible to be infected with both at the same time. At least this is how I remembered it; Mr. V. can correct me if this is not correct.
I saw exactly that somewhere as well.
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2406

Post by AndyinPA »

Iceland had its first death, a young Australian tourist.
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2407

Post by RTH10260 »

A prophetic Bill Gates


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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2408

Post by Lani »

Hawaii has gone from no covid-19 2 weeks ago to 14 people today, now on all islands.

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2409

Post by Orlylicious »

Hannity is cheering "The Trump Stimulus" with bailouts to the airline and cruise industries.

Found this tonight, from 2009. They were really supportive:

Sean Hannity's Apocalyptic Stimulus Plan Montage:





What you've heard about Mighty Spork is true. Don't miss The Fogbow's Favourite TV Show™ starring the titular Mama June Shannon -- "Mama June: Family Crisis!" Fri 9/8c. TVShowsAce featured Fogbow's love 5/26/20: https://bit.ly/2TNxrbS

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2410

Post by Lani »

John Hopkins Covid-19 chart now has the US at 6362. It's about a day behind on the new cases.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2411

Post by NotaPerson »


A chilling scientific paper helped upend U.S. and U.K. coronavirus strategies

LONDON — Immediately after Boris Johnson completed his Monday evening news conference, which saw a somber prime minister encourage his fellow citizens to avoid "all nonessential contact with others," his aides hustled reporters into a second, off-camera briefing.

That session presented jaw-dropping numbers from some of Britain’s top modelers of infectious disease, who predicted the deadly course of the coronavirus could quickly kill hundreds of thousands in both the United Kingdom and the United States, as surges of sick and dying patients overwhelmed hospitals and critical care units.

The new forecasts, by Neil Ferguson and his colleagues at the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, were quickly endorsed by Johnson’s government to design new and more extreme measures to suppress the spread of the virus.
:snippity:
The report is also influencing planning by the Trump administration. Deborah Birx, who serves as the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, cited the British analysis at a news conference Monday, saying her response team was especially focused on the report’s conclusion that an entire household should self-quarantine for 14 days if one of its members is stricken by the virus.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html


:pray:
Am I being detained?

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2412

Post by SLQ »

pipistrelle wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:26 pm
Kendra wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:22 pm

Critical to not stand in line at grocery stores for food. There is plenty of food in the USA! Most restaurants are still open for business and have take out or delivery available.
If you can afford it.
And that's NOT what he said the other day. Revising history.
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2413

Post by p0rtia »

Let them eat cake.
No matter where you go, there you are! :towel:
ImageImageImage

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2414

Post by SLQ »

Lani wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:57 pm
Hawaii has gone from no covid-19 2 weeks ago to 14 people today, now on all islands.
Are you able to get tested? Hope you're doing better this evening. :bighug:
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2415

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

We're not Italy yet, but the counter as of now shows the following:
Active Cases 6,302

Currently Infected Patients
6,290 (100%) in Mild Condition
12 (0%) Serious or Critical

Closed Cases
Cases which had an outcome: 222
Recovered / Discharged 106 (48%))
Deaths 116 (52%)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


So except for those who die, it's almost always "mild" in degree. As of now. Death rate is 1.84%. But this is based on incomplete evidence (how many more infected people are there) at an early stage of the progression of Covid-19.

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2416

Post by Sam the Centipede »

The Science Daily website reports some data from research and analysis:
Coronavirus spreads quickly and sometimes before people have symptoms, study finds:
Infectious disease researchers […] found that time between cases in a chain of transmission is less than a week and that more than 10 percent of patients are infected by somebody who has the virus but does not yet have symptoms.
They explain the basic epidemiology:
The speed of an epidemic depends on two things -- how many people each case infects and how long it takes for infection between people to spread. The first quantity is called the reproduction number; the second is the serial interval. The short serial interval of COVID-19 means emerging outbreaks will grow quickly and could be difficult to stop, the researchers said.
Another item gives information about the persistence of the virus on surfaces: New coronavirus stable for hours on surfaces:
disease 2019 (COVID-19) is stable for several hours to days in aerosols and on surfaces. Scientists found that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2417

Post by Volkonski »

Quick bits-

A Canadian government official said late Tuesday that Canada and the United States are working out the details of a mutual ban on non-essential travel between the two countries.

The mayor of the South Korean city worst-hit by the coronavirus says 87 new cases have been discovered from local nursing hospitals.

California's governor says few if any of the state's schools will reopen before summer break.

Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak ordered a month long closure of casinos and other non-essential businesses like bars, movie theaters and gyms, to slow the spread of the new coronavirus.

Hawaii's governor is encouraging travelers to postpone their island vacations for at least the next 30 days as the state tries to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

Archdiocese of Galveston-Houston cancels all weekday and Sunday Masses.
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2418

Post by Volkonski »

Canada, U.S. to close border to non-essential travel: Globe and Mail

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... ce=twitter
Canada and the United States will announce a deal to partially close their borders on Wednesday, which will allow trade and commerce to go on, the Globe and Mail reported here on Tuesday, citing sources.

The two countries are finalizing a deal to close the borders to non-essential travel in order to control the spread of the coronavirus, the report said.

Canada closed its borders to all foreign nationals except U.S. citizens and permanent residents on Monday.
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2419

Post by Volkonski »

David Mack
@davidmackau
·
8m
Australia's travel advice has been raised to level 4 — the highest level, meaning do not travel anywhere in the world. This has never happened before. PM also advised Australians currently overseas to come back if they can.
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2420

Post by Volkonski »

Jeremy C. Young
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16 hours ago, 21 tweets, 4 min read

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…

The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.

It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.

How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.

Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.

This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.

That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.

Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.

After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.

How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.

Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.

Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.

It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2421

Post by Volkonski »

Thousands flock to Florida beaches, ignoring coronavirus concerns

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronaviru ... d=84542742
Thousands of people in Florida are seemingly ignoring social distancing guidelines during the coronavirus outbreak. Despite warnings from public health experts, photos and videos show beaches across the state packed with spring breakers.

:snippity:

Essentially, every American should be practicing social distancing. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends keeping 6 feet away from other people.

:snippity:

"Everything might be canceled due to #CoronavirusPandemic concerns, but oh man, the beach is packed," CBS affiliate WTSP reporter Liz Burch tweeted over the weekend.

:snippity:

While Florida's Gulf Coast is still busy with spring breakers, Fort Lauderdale, Miami Beach and several other communities announced they were closing their beaches this week. In addition, bars, nightclubs and restaurants, entertainment venues and gyms are closing to the public as of Tuesday in some cities.
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2422

Post by Volkonski »

Janine di Giovanni
@janinedigi
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19 hours ago, 8 tweets, 3 min read

From my lockdown room in #Paris things look grim, but here is some positive advancements #coronavirus:

-China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.

- Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus using...
Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.

- Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against #coronavirus

- A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from #COVID19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.

- Apple reopens all 42 china stores,

- Cleveland Clinic developed a #COVID19 test that gives results in hours, not days.

- Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining

- Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population Europ

- Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a #coronavirus vaccine.

- 3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.

- A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.

A San Diego biotech company is developing a #COVID19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.

- Tulsa County's first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.

All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi are recovered

Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by #COVID19

So it's not all bad news. Let's care for each other and stay focused on safety of the most vulnerable
Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2423

Post by Bill_G »

Volkonski wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:04 am
Janine di Giovanni
@janinedigi
Thank you for this.

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2424

Post by neonzx »

Volkonski wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:45 am
Thousands flock to Florida beaches, ignoring coronavirus concerns

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronaviru ... d=84542742
The vast majority are youngins on spring break. Most aren't old enough to even remember 9/11 so they lack experience with coping in a national emergency. And the current crisis makes 9/11 look easy.

It's human nature to want a sense of normalcy, and being out with others is normal. This makes the social distancing mandate difficult to adhere to. Humans are social beings.

It's a :pickle:
To which Trump replied, Fuck the law. I don't give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.

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Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

#2425

Post by fierceredpanda »

neonzx wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:45 am
The vast majority are youngins on spring break. Most aren't old enough to even remember 9/11 so they lack experience with coping in a national emergency. And the current crisis makes 9/11 look easy.

It's human nature to want a sense of normalcy, and being out with others is normal. This makes the social distancing mandate difficult to adhere to. Humans are social beings.

It's a :pickle:
It's more than that. It's also the fact that the response from authority after 9/11 was to tell people that maintaining normalcy was how we win, and to deviate would be to "let the terrorists win." Slate has a really great piece about this bit of the post-9/11 American psyche:
A nation founded on revolt and manifest destiny might have some of this martial distortion deep in its character. But more recently, the “war on terror” has done a lot more to atrophy and warp the American political imagination. Virtually every kind of adversity is reflexively approached now through bizarrely inappropriate war metaphors. This mismatch between what war actually is and the “wars” we see everywhere is a strange artifact of 9/11, which introduced the concept of a mostly invisible terror to the average American, a threat that was suddenly uncircumscribed by any clear definition of nation-states or conventional combat or boundaries of any kind. Because of this inchoate and largely fear-based threat, Americans were told to reject the psychological intimidation on which terrorism depends. To refuse to “live in fear.”

:snippity:

Of course this created a dramatic disconnect between our imagined effectiveness and the reality of our lives. Many Americans learned to see individual indulgence as a noble fulfillment of patriotic duty, all while conducting the longest armed conflict in our history and succumbing to the kind of us-versus-them Islamophobia the terrorists wanted—more, I suspect, than they wanted Americans to avoid malls. We submitted to needless security theater, sacrificed our privacy to the Patriot Act, and spent uncountable sums on an unwinnable war. We are all more surveilled, more vulnerable, more precarious, and less free. But we can sure shop and eat at restaurants and tell ourselves it’s for the good of the country. We have been led to believe that consumerism is the only political power we, the people, really have. American troops may still be abroad, but this is how we at home win the “battles” that have become notional and emptied of any ideal but rationalized selfishness. There’s no risk. There’s no sacrifice. The lesson the war on terror taught was that doing and buying exactly what we want is sticking a boot in the enemy’s ass.

That’s a really weird lesson, not least because of the way it recasts activities Americans tend to regard as feminine and frivolous, like shopping, as a kind of masculine badassery. That’s the type of tension that leads to overcompensation; no wonder some Americans are all the more determined to prove their mettle in contexts where it makes no sense. Real courage and real patriotism call for an entirely different approach.

This habit of confusing dining out with waging war has left us navigating actual challenges like the coronavirus through the haze of an emotional and logical paradox: Americans may subconsciously intuit that going out to spend money is a pretty degrading redefinition of patriotic courage, but because we haven’t been given permission to valorize any kind of self-sacrificing or collectivist action, there’s nowhere for that energy to go. So yes, a hum of doubt and uncertainty underpins these coronavirus declarations of American bravery. While he was self-isolating after being exposed to the infamous CPAC coronavirus carrier, Rep. Paul Gosar tweeted something pretty telling: “I’d rather die gloriously in battle than from a virus. In a way it doesn’t matter. But it kinda does.” The subtext here should be familiar by now: It’s humiliating—emasculating, even—to be brought low by a bundle of protein and RNA.
That last bit is important, because that is exactly the lesson people my age (I'm 35 - I was a month shy of 17 on 9/11) and younger have only ever been taught: That individual stoicism is how we meet a national emergency. The notion of collective sacrifice - things the World War II generation had to do, like rationing or paying higher taxes - has been so stigmatized (mostly by the political right) in this country as being "un-American" that no one knows how to do anything other than adopt an attitude of "life must go on."
"There's no play here. There's no angle. There's no champagne room. I'm not a miracle worker, I'm a janitor. The math on this is simple; the smaller the mess, the easier it is for me to clean up." -Michael Clayton


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