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Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

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Addie
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Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#1

Post by Addie »

Newsweek: Coronavirus Outbreak May Have Started as Early as September, Scientists Say

The coronavirus outbreak could have started as early as mid-September, and the Chinese city of Wuhan may not be where it began, a scientist looking at the origins of the disease has said.

Geneticist Peter Forster, from the U.K.'s University of Cambridge, is leading a research project to understand the historical processes that led to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ultimately, they hope to identify the first person who got the virus and served as the source for the initial outbreak. By analyzing networks, they have so far been able to chart the spread of the virus, including the genetic mutations, as it moved from China to Australia, Europe and the rest of the world.

They have created a network analysis using over 1,000 coronavirus genomes. This includes patient infection date and the "type" of virus the person was infected with. There are three types—A, B and C. A is closest to the coronavirus found in bats and is thought to be the original human virus genome. This type was found in Chinese and American individuals, with mutated versions in patients from Australia and the U.S.

However, A was not the virus type found in most cases in Wuhan, the city in China where COVID-19 was first identified. Instead, most people there had type B. Researchers suggest there was a "founder event" for type B in Wuhan. Type C, the "daughter" of type B, is what was identified in early cases in Europe, as well as South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong—but appears absent from mainland China.


"The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for." - Barbara Kingsolver
Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#2

Post by Addie »

ABC News: More testing needed before states implement Trump's reopening guidance, experts say

While the White House on Friday insisted that the United States has the testing capacity to begin reopening the economy in certain states, under the administration's new guidelines, some public health experts warned that the country still lacks adequate testing to track and contain potential coronavirus outbreaks.

Vice President Mike Pence and the administration's top health officials said the United States has conducted roughly 3.7 million diagnostic tests -- roughly 120,000 a day -- and argued that the U.S. has the infrastructure to improve testing capacity.

"Our best scientists and health experts assess that today we have a sufficient amount of testing to meet the requirements of phase one reopening, if state governors should choose to do that," said Pence, referencing White House guidance.

But public health experts surveyed by ABC News, even as they praised the broad strokes of Trump's reopening plan, said testing shortages would prevent states from safely beginning the reopening process, describing the problem as one requiring a federal, not state-by-state, solution.

"The most critical piece to this opening up is getting testing ramped up," Dr. Joseph Eisenberg, chair of the epidemiology program at the University of Michigan School of Public Health, told ABC News.


"The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for." - Barbara Kingsolver
Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#3

Post by Addie »

CNN
Contamination at CDC lab was likely cause of critical early delays in rolling out coronavirus testing

(CNN) Contamination in manufacturing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention test for the coronavirus caused weeks of delays that slowed the US response to the pandemic, multiple health officials have told CNN, a problem that stemmed in part from the CDC not adhering to its own protocols, according to a US Food and Drug Administration spokesperson.

"CDC made its test in one of its laboratories, rather than in its manufacturing facilities," the FDA spokesperson told CNN on Saturday. "CDC did not manufacture its test consistent with its own protocol."

The government has never fully explained what stalled the rollout of a crucial test needed to begin measuring the extent of the spread of Covid-19. It would take until the end of February to correct and the US continues to lack extensive testing capability even as some states prepare ease up on restriction and reopen to a degree. ...

According to an administration official, the FDA determined contamination was most likely occurring during the manufacturing process and that the CDC had appeared to have violated its own manufacturing protocols.


"The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for." - Barbara Kingsolver
Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#4

Post by Addie »

Seattle PI
Test to detect COVID-19 antibodies ready for public use, UW researchers say

For those who were sick recently but weren’t sure if they had the coronavirus, a new test is coming that will answer the question and it could be available as early as next week.

The University of Washington School of Medicine Virology Lab has been working with pharmaceutical giant Abbott Laboratories to fine tune a test that detects antibodies in the blood of a person who may have had the virus.

“The test seems to be very, very sensitive," said Dr. Keith Jerome, who heads up UW Medicine’s Virology Division. "If a person has had COVID, the test detects them with a very, very high degree of reliability.” ...

Starting next week, he said, the lab will be prepped to test 4,000 blood samples a day with the expectation it can handle 12,000 to 14,000 a day in the coming weeks.

The lab is receiving early shipments from Abbot because of it’s work with Abbot to determine the accuracy of the test.


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Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#5

Post by Addie »

TechCrunch
What is contact tracing?

One of the best tools we have to slow the spread of the coronavirus is, as you have no doubt heard by now, contact tracing. But what exactly is contact tracing, who does it and how, and do you need to worry about it?

In short, contact tracing helps prevent the spread of a virus by proactively finding people at higher risk than others due to potential exposure, notifying them if possible, and quarantining them if necessary. It’s a proven technique, and smartphones could help make it even more effective — but only if privacy and other concerns can be overcome.

Contact tracing, from memory to RAM

Contact tracing has been done in some form or another as long as the medical establishment has understood the nature of contagious diseases. When a person is diagnosed with an infectious disease, they are asked whom they have been in contact with over the previous weeks, both in order to determine who may have been infected by them and perhaps where they themselves were infected.

Until very recently, however, the process has relied heavily on the recall of people who are in a highly stressful situation and, until prompted, were probably not paying special attention to their movements and interactions.

This results in a list of contacts that is far from complete, though still very helpful. If those people can be contacted and their contacts likewise traced, a network of potential infections can be built up without a single swab or blood drop, and lives can be saved or important resources better allocated.


"The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for." - Barbara Kingsolver
Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#6

Post by Addie »

WaPo - Sally Jenkins
Some may have to die to save the economy? How about offering testing and basic protections?

The sentiment has been mouthed by every fool from Dr. Oz to the Cheetos-dusted flimflam man in the Oval Office: Rather than damage the economy further, we must accept a certain number of novel coronavirus casualties so the rest of us can go back to restaurants and football games. It’s a false moral equation and a false choice. And the people putting it forward smack of panic.

How about we wait to have the discussion of how many deaths are acceptable among which sorts of people — elders? asthmatics? — until after we have taken common-sense measures to prevent the preventable. Such as, a ramped-up national testing and tracing system that would allow Americans to make legitimate personal-risk assessments and reduce the chance of new outbreaks as they return to work and to their amusements. People need to work — but they also need to know they won’t carry the virus home.

It’s called informed consent. And right now, we don’t have it. None of us. Only about 1 percent of Americans have been tested as we approach reopening. ...

“Just run out there with no bullets or vests or helmets or maps, for the good of your country.”

What is this, World War I?


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Lani
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#7

Post by Lani »

This might lead to employment for some people who are now unemployed. There needs to be trained teams to conduct the interviews and chase down potential contacts. Detail oriented and compassionate people.

A person in Hawaii who was very ill got THE CALL at home about her testing positive for Covid19. About an hour later, a DOH person knocked on her door. She could barely get to the door, only to be barraged with questions. She hadn't processed the data she had just received, and the person started asking a list of questions. Not the way to handle the situation. [obviously]

The investigator didn't bother to ask if she was ok. Did she need anything? Nada. The woman couldn't answer many questions well because she sick! And scared!


Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#8

Post by Addie »

CNN: Coronavirus testing needs to go up by 350,000 per day for the US to reopen, Harvard researchers say

(CNN) If the United States wants the economy to open back up -- and stay that way -- coronavirus testing must go up to at least 500,000 per day, Harvard researchers said.

Testing nationwide is currently at 150,000 per day, they said, adding that "If we can't be doing at least 500,000 tests a day by May 1, it is hard to see any way we can remain open."

The US has reported more than 735,000 coronavirus cases and 38, 910 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Though some officials have warned against it, several states are looking to reopen as soon as possible. ...

And the number of positive tests much [sic] also be much lower, the researchers said. In the US, 20% of those tested for coronavirus get positive results. The World Health Organization has said that to reopen, that number should be between 3% to 12%.


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Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#9

Post by Addie »

Seen on DU
Adding:
The Hill: French researchers: High temperatures ineffective against coronavirus


"The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for." - Barbara Kingsolver
Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#10

Post by Addie »

Associated Press
No Plan In Sight: Test Troubles Cloud Trump Recovery Effort

More than a month after he declared, “Anybody who wants a test, can get a test,” the reality has been much different.


WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States is struggling to test enough people to track and control the spread of the novel coronavirus, a crucial first step to reopening parts of the economy, which President Donald Trump is pushing to do by May 1.

Trump on Thursday released a plan to ease business restriction that hinges on a downward trajectory of positive tests.

But more than a month after he declared, “Anybody who wants a test, can get a test,” the reality has been much different. People report being unable to get tested. Labs and public officials say critical supply shortages are making it impossible to increase testing to the levels experts say is necessary to keep the virus in check.

“There are places that have enough test swabs, but not enough workers to administer them. There are places that are limiting tests because of the CDC criteria on who should get tested,” said Dr. Megan Ranney an emergency doctor and associate professor at Brown University. “There’s just so many inefficiencies and problems with the way that testing currently happens across this country.”

Trump’s plan envisions setting up “sentinel surveillance sites” that would screen people without symptoms in locations that serve older people or minority populations. Experts say testing would have to increase as much as threefold to be effective.


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Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#11

Post by Addie »

The Atlantic: A New Statistic Reveals Why America’s COVID-19 Numbers Are Flat

Few figures tell you anything useful about how the coronavirus has spread through the U.S. Here’s one that does.


How many people have the coronavirus in the United States? More than two months into the country’s outbreak, this remains the most important question for its people, schools, hospitals, and businesses. It is also still among the hardest to answer. At least 630,000 people nationwide now have test-confirmed cases of COVID-19, according to The Atlantic’s COVID Tracking Project, a state-by-state tally conducted by more than 100 volunteers and experts. But an overwhelming body of evidence shows that this is an undercount.


"The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for." - Barbara Kingsolver
Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#12

Post by Addie »

The Hill
Pelosi: Fauci's testing recommendation 'hasn't been done'

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Sunday that despite National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci’s endorsement of the Trump administration’s rapid coronavirus testing plan as a step toward reopening the economy, “it hasn’t been done.”

“On March 4th, we passed our first bill, bipartisan. Testing. Testing. Testing. It’s over six weeks since then. And it hasn’t been done,” Pelosi said on “Fox News Sunday.”

“But he’s right, it has to be testing. It has to be ... contact tracing. It has to be treatment. And it has to be quarantine. It’s part of something bigger as well to be done properly. But we’re way late on it and that is a failure,” Pelosi said.

“The president gets an F, a failure on the testing,” she added.
Adding:
Newsweek: Nancy Pelosi Criticizes Trump's Early Coronavirus Response, Says President Thought 'It's Going to Magically Disappear'


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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#13

Post by AndyinPA »

From Addie's initial quote.
The coronavirus outbreak could have started as early as mid-September, and the Chinese city of Wuhan may not be where it began, a scientist looking at the origins of the disease has said.
I'm on three Viking Cruise feeds on Facebook. People who traveled to China last fall have been posting for months about coming home very sick with a lot of the symptoms of the virus as early as September and October.

It's not unusual to get colds and other viruses on cruises and in airports and airplanes, but some people had been to Wuhan. Others had not.
Off Topic
I'm now not at all sorry we had to cancel our trip to China. I am sorry we have to cancel three planned trips this year. First-world problem, not really complaining. The only one I'm really sorry about is the one where we were taking our granddaughter on Amtrak for a three-week trip up the California coast. It's hard to see her so disappointed.


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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#14

Post by RTH10260 »

Addie wrote: Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:11 am :snippity:
Newsweek: Nancy Pelosi Criticizes Trump's Early Coronavirus Response, Says President Thought 'It's Going to Magically Disappear'
That is how individual-1 did run his enterprises. He never really handled any crisis himself. He told his lawyers "to make it go away" and went to his golf course. :blackeye:

#MAGA :sarcasm:


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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#15

Post by AndyinPA »

I'm not so sure that's really sarcasm. :think:


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Jeffrey
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#16

Post by Jeffrey »

So Trumps plan is to wait for the private sector to come up with a plan then take credit.


Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#17

Post by Addie »

CNN: Governors dispute Trump's claim that there's enough coronavirus testing


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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#18

Post by Addie »

National Memo - Joe Conason
There Is Nobody Else To Blame ...

Trump's peripatetic search for someone else to blame has taken him from Beijing to Capitol Hill to Manhattan to Geneva as well as various state capitals. He complains about the Chinese government, the Democrats in Congress, the New York Times and CNN; the governors of Washington state, Illinois and Michigan; and, most recently, the World Health Organization, whose vital funding he has threatened in one of the most misguided acts ever perpetrated by an American president.

He has misused the bully pulpit provided by his Coronavirus Task Force "briefings" — which impart almost no useful information — to launch broadsides against all of those targets. Meanwhile, the government he supposedly leads still has no substantive plan for testing enough citizens to ensure their safe emergence from isolation. His proclamation of a business council to prepare for economic reopening was an embarrassment, showing that his rapacity is exceeded only by his incompetence. The corporate and labor leaders whose names he droned were evidently not told of their expected participation — and they warned him that without sufficient testing, they won't join his reopening scheme.

What is even worse for Trump than the daily tableau of federal failure is his unflattering contrast with the state governors — from Andrew Cuomo in New York to Gavin Newsom in California and so many others — who have deployed their limited resources to great effect in combating the pandemic. With courage and consistency, governors of both parties are summoning the best from their public and private health systems, protecting their constituents and defending democracy from the authoritarians in the White House. ...

That style, so characteristic of Trump, has taken on a new and sinister meaning in our dystopian reality. He must constantly identify enemies and villains because without them, his own culpability in this catastrophe will become the central question — as it should.

The factual history of the coronavirus and the United States government is actually quite simple. It begins with decisions by the Trump administration to squander and spoil efforts by previous presidents, dating back to Bill Clinton, who spent billions to prepare the country for a viral pandemic long foreseen by scientific advisers. For reasons that he will never be able to explain, Trump allowed his imbecilic appointees to fire the American officials in charge of monitoring potential disease threats, not only in Washington but also around the world.


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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#19

Post by Volkonski »

Andrew Cuomo
@NYGovCuomo
·
30m
NEW: NYS will undertake the most aggressive statewide antibody testing survey in the nation in the next week.

It will tell us for the first time what percentage of the population has actually had #Coronavirus.

This will be the first true snapshot of what we’re dealing with.


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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#20

Post by Volkonski »

Jake Tapper
@jaketapper
·
16m
March 21, Admiral Giroir of HHS said at the WH briefing of laboratory tests for COVID-19: "we expect that, by March 28th, to be well over 27 million into the market."

https://whitehouse.gov/briefings-statem ... riefing-7/
Quote Tweet

Kaitlan Collins
@kaitlancollins
· 3h
Vice President Pence tells Chris Wallace the U.S. is conducting about 150,000 tests per day and four million tests have been conducted overall.


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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#21

Post by Volkonski »

Ellen Nakashima
@nakashimae
·
42m
NEW: The FDA, criticized for slowness in approving tests to detect the coronavirus, has allowed more than 90 antibody tests on the market without review, incl some that are being marketed fraudulently and are of dubious quality, via
@lauriemcginley2
https://t.co/zKV65iwrCY?amp=1


Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
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Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#22

Post by Addie »

Mother Jones - Edwin Rios: Trump Spent the Beginning of His Coronavirus Briefing Bragging About American Testing. He Shouldn’t.
WaPo - Jennifer Rubin: The lying liars vs. competent governors
The Hill: US needs to conduct 20 million coronavirus tests per day to reopen fully, Harvard report says
Reuters Fact Check: True claim: Brazilian chloroquine study on COVID-19 patients was halted after 11 deaths


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Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#23

Post by Addie »

NPR: Study Raises Questions About False Negatives From Quick COVID-19 Test

The fastest test being used to diagnose people infected with the coronavirus appears to be the least accurate test now in common use, according to new research obtained by NPR.

Researchers at the Cleveland Clinic tested 239 specimens known to contain the coronavirus using five of the most commonly used coronavirus tests, including the Abbott ID NOW. The ID NOW has generated widespread excitement because it can produce results in less than 15 minutes.

But the ID NOW only detected the virus in 85.2% of the samples, meaning it had a false-negative rate of 14.8 percent, according to Dr. Gary Procop, who heads COVID-19 testing at the Cleveland Clinic and led the study.

"So that means if you had 100 patients that were positive, 15% of those patients would be falsely called negative. They'd be told that they're negative for COVID when they're really positive," Procop told NPR in an interview. "That's not too good."


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Addie
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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#24

Post by Addie »

News.com.au: Chinese study finds coronavirus mutation has been vastly underestimated

A study by Chinese scientists shows the new coronavirus has been able to rapidly mutate into even deadlier strains, wreaking havoc.
Also:
MedRXiv: Preprint of Chinese study


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Re: Coronavirus: Tracking & Testing

#25

Post by pipistrelle »

Addie wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:52 am
News.com.au: Chinese study finds coronavirus mutation has been vastly underestimated

A study by Chinese scientists shows the new coronavirus has been able to rapidly mutate into even deadlier strains, wreaking havoc.
I keep hoping it'll mutate into less deadly strains . . .


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