Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#201

Post by Mr Pfister » Sat Sep 29, 2018 1:47 am

kate520 wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:29 am
Off Topic
Before the internets, sometime in the late 90s, Santana talked about his troubles on a radio show in DC. He said he saw the error of his ways and was working hard to change.
Any idea if he really did?



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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#202

Post by kate520 » Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:25 am

I think his rehabilitation was genuine. The women’s movement was in full swing at the time. He talked about the culture he came from and how he thought that’s how real men behaved. It was how his father treated his mother; his uncles, brothers, of course, it was unquestioned. Since he hasn’t been in the news as a wife beater I’d say he really did change.


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#203

Post by Mikedunford » Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:28 am

Sam the Centipede wrote:
Fri Sep 28, 2018 11:16 pm
The Michael Avenatti Show seems akin to a fireworks display to me: it gives amusement to many onlookers but ultimately achieves very little and may even cause some damage if sparks land in unfortunate places.

It certainly isn't worth a flouncing session or even extended huffery and puffery.
I'm worried about the damage - the Bannon thing solidified that concern.

I'm sure Bannon is happy with the idea of Avenatti. We know Bannon wants to burn it all down; there's an old thread on that around here somewhere.

Here's my thing. I think a serious third-party run is all-but-certain in 2020. It didn't happen in 2016, but I think that's because Democrats were, on the whole, OK with their candidate and the mainstream Republicans were still reeling from the primary and couldn't get their shit together. Both Dems and never-Trumpers are still reeling now, but the never-Trumpers have had a lot more time to get their shit together. Flake, in particular, is taking steps toward a run already.

So let's look toward the 2020 primaries. What happens if Avenatti jumps in and starts throwing his Trumpian shit around in that field? Unless he's either forced out very early or doesn't run at all, it's likely to push things toward that kind of rhetoric. That will make a bigger gap for the third-party run - and the third party candidate will very likely be a mainstream Republican like Flake.

Right now, both the mainstream parties are polling in the sewer. Party identification is not high. The percentage of voters identifying as Republicans is at a 25-year low (26%). But the percentage of voters identifying as Democrats is also near a low (33%). (The Democrats have been at 33% several times in the last 25-years, but have only been lower once, in 2015, when it hit 32%.) Aside from the rah-rah around 2001, approval of Congress has been sub-25% for most of this century.

The majority (or at least a plurality) of voters dislike both parties. Shit's primed for a 3rd-party win. I think the Avenatti approach is a lot more likely to make that happen.

Edit: ETA: link for party ID polling:
http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/ ... 1992-2017/


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#204

Post by Sam the Centipede » Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:59 am

Yes, the risk of a credible third party or independent contender in 2020 is a worry.

Maybe I'm wrong (I have a memory like a scythe sieve), but I don't recall Avenatti dissing the Democratic Party or Democratic people during this excitement. So I don't think that responsibility for collateral damage of that sort can fairly be laid on his shoulders.

It would be good if some clean-handed and strong Democratic candidates started emerging to build some sort of momentum for change without the distraction of vanity candidates. As 2018 senesces, 2019 gestates 2020.



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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#205

Post by Mikedunford » Sat Sep 29, 2018 5:25 am

To the extent Avenatti has gone after Democrats, I think it's been restricted to the kind of critique we've heard here - that if they don't get more aggressive, more like him, they'll lose.

I'm worried that he's right, but more worried that he's wrong, but we'll go there anyway.


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#206

Post by Danraft » Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:25 am

Mike,
Yes. Your view is correct on all of the above.
And.If I may broaden this post scope to include all the "FB hive brain" as I have referred to it many times...

Don't you dare let the hive brain have "break down". Do some self-reflection, pet a puppy, do scream therapy, take your meds, do a colonic, paddle some whitewater, have a sexual encounter, chant, do group therapy... whatever works for each of the unique parts of this functioning fugue of disparate instruments....

I'm just being selfish. (put that in the parking lot). And, as one who was a lurker forever and still get blasted for "formatting" etc., kiss it up. You are, as a group, all fortunate to have not only well wired skull jello--however the hell that happened, but to have found a group of others that have a penchant for logic and knowledge too (also). (and sometimes, and this is entirely not personal as I am often in this classification, a collection of "irritating pedantic phucks")

(of all bloody things-- over Avenatti?)
A scrap over offended egos fought with slashing sarcasm and indignant self-righteous anger is not going to be a Thing (yes, it damn well IS a random capitalization) here at the Fogbow. We have all looked out from digital artificial ivory tower at the landscapes of current events for too many years.

If you aren't aware, to a lurker and and newbie, I can assure you that it is intimidating, and as woodworker said above, I'm positive there are many more voices yet to join into the conversation. If you'll let them. And, let yourselves and each other be wrong every once in a while. If part of you flinched at the word "wrong", well... It's a family. And, it can't start/continue to have members running away, being disowned or seeking separation over ...anything. It's a rule. It should be a rule. I move for a No Exit-Knights of the Fogbow Covenant... anybody wanna second that?

Yes. There is some real frustration that positions of pieces in the game call for moves that are clearly and blatant are missed by our politicians and political parties.

That anger is akin to what one sees with a high level Bridge Tournament when one's partner missed the cue, or misplayed a perfect set up-- for the 4th time-- just like they did last week-- after you swore you would never partner with them after ....
It hurts. Sure, it isn't physical pain, but the stakes are for more than a fantasy football pick or a card game.

Now, take that anger, and let it simmer and stew. Let everyone talk about how you couldn't have won because you're a liberal (yes--- I am actually going to make a point)...

See, That is why Trump won. People have felt like they can't win. They work hard. Several jobs, and they have never had a maid, or a gardener, or a financial adviser, or, hell, a doctor or dentist. The whole system is Fracked. The parties are stupid and politicians are crooked and yes, it's rigged and it's wrong, but there isn't any hope for the common sentient being.

People here may or may not have big numbers above the IQ of 100. But the quantity here is tiny, so I suggest that pulling that "the rest must be demonstratively stupid or broken" judgment back in and look at it.

Because, so many brilliant and creative, or beautifully unique, or astounding strong willed, or generous of spirit, people --all of them-- because there is something you would like about every single person you could meet.
ALL of the people ( ok 78% of those people) feel like they don't have a fracking voice and they just hate the whole thing.

That's where the Democratic party sucks sometimes. But, Trump got it. Boy did he. And, Avenatti is of the Joseph Campbell "Heroes of a Thousand Faces" mold as well. A character from a Greek Tragedy.. Yes, it's a hokey analysis. And, probably, I've made enough grammatical faux pas' to skip over and not read. Or, the name or Avatar made it happen. Or, maybe in some previous ramble I was just "blocked" and snickered at like a character in Mean Girls.

Meh, If you're still here........

Foggy, I'm ready. Could you hook me up with a Static Page?

(-- out of the parking lot)
Selfish Reasons.
For non-selfish reasons I've had an obsession. A way for all here who feel that disenchantment, and every other sentient being (and I do mean every other-- I can't help those that don't like to read, yet, but I'm working on it) frustrated soul out there.

And, yes, here, we are accustomed to sifting through the words for meanings and that group of muscles is as strong and as coordinated as the troupe from Cirque du Soleil. But, that isn't our audience, per se.

This project, my obsession, arose because of echos of the Hive Brain in my head. And the disaster I felt I was watching in your company. The idea seemed simple, and yet, not conceived of by others.

I was wrong. What was "visionary", was really rudimentary --and there were experts far ahead of me. Who, at first wouldn't talk to me. Each week I would have learned so much that when I looked at the previous weeks notes, it was obvious how behind I was. Now, we have some endorsements and partners.

Each week there was more progress. Thousands of web pages later. Several "clear the table" and start over moments later... And, I work. 50-60 hours a week. And, have a family.... I've gone to bed past 4 AM more than I ever have, including college.

So, please. Preserve the integrity of the Fogbow Hive Brain. A few minutes here or there. To give Advise and Insight. I'm exhausted, but I can't abandon--and I am in need of magnetic North.

Every single one of you has valued input and something to get out of this.

Researched with each of you in mind, and now, finally to begin to present for those who need ways to see a clearer picture, to understand the other, to see there are ways to make a difference, to protect and support all of us in America... to give them a curated aggregation of the best projects and thoughts of information scientists, journalism platforms, Cambridge, Yale, Harvard, Stanford, Poynter Group, Shorenstein Center, Nieman Lab, and so much.

I believe that the Trumpian Era, may bring a new Information Age.

So, just keep the padded gloves on... realize how much every body could really, if they wanted to, be mean. Wipe that thought. and private message each other.
Hugs and bugs, I need 3 hours sleep.
Dan


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#207

Post by Foggy » Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:55 am

Off Topic
kate520 wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:29 am
Before the internets, sometime in the late 90s, Santana talked about his troubles on a radio show in DC. He said he saw the error of his ways and was working hard to change.
Wait, there was a time BEFORE the intartubez? :confused:


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#208

Post by qbawl » Sat Sep 29, 2018 7:28 am

Foggy wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:55 am
Off Topic
kate520 wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:29 am
Before the internets, sometime in the late 90s, Santana talked about his troubles on a radio show in DC. He said he saw the error of his ways and was working hard to change.
Wait, there was a time BEFORE the intartubez? :confused:
You've not heard of "The Before Time"?



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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#209

Post by tek » Sat Sep 29, 2018 7:34 am

Thanks for that, Dan..

(offtopic, but not really)
(some of you have heard this before)
Early in my professional career, my then-employer (DEC) sent me to what we engineers snarkily called "Charm School".. a week-long off-site course titled "Face to Face" ... I expected it to be a week of stupid exercises, but it ended up changing my life.

I walked away with two (related) messages:
- Everyone brings something to the table.
- If you think you're the smartest person in the room, you are in deep trouble.

38 years later, I still carry and use these messages.

Partially related: maybe when interacting with others, ask yourself "Am I a Kavanaugh or am I a Ford?"

...tom


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#210

Post by Mikedunford » Sat Sep 29, 2018 7:38 am

But what if you know you're the smartest person in the room?

► Show Spoiler


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#211

Post by tek » Sat Sep 29, 2018 7:50 am

If I'm being honest, there have been times when the furniture was smarter them I was

:?


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#212

Post by Mikedunford » Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:31 am

tek wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 7:50 am
If I'm being honest, there have been times when the furniture was smarter them I was

:?
:rotflmao:


"I don't give a fuck whether we're peers or not."
--Lord Thomas Henry Bingham to Boris Johnson, on being asked whether he would miss being in "the best club in London" if the Law Lords moved from Parliament to a Supreme Court.

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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#213

Post by Sam the Centipede » Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:40 am

tek wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 7:50 am
If I'm being honest, there have been times when the furniture was smarter them I was

:?
DEC made some nice computers Back In The Day, but I didn't know they invented smart furniture!



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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#214

Post by Foggy » Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:47 am

tek wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 7:34 am
- Everyone brings something to the table.
- If you think you're the smartest person in the room, you are in deep trouble.
Those are the precepts by which I try to run this forum ... with varying degrees of success, I admit.


... and believe it or not, I never had a day of engineering school. :blackeyesmall:


Mr. William L. Bryan is the root of a great deal of criminal mischief. And yet, Mr. Bryan remains at large.

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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#215

Post by Somerset » Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:09 am

Mikedunford wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:28 am
Sam the Centipede wrote:
Fri Sep 28, 2018 11:16 pm
The Michael Avenatti Show seems akin to a fireworks display to me: it gives amusement to many onlookers but ultimately achieves very little and may even cause some damage if sparks land in unfortunate places.

It certainly isn't worth a flouncing session or even extended huffery and puffery.
I'm worried about the damage - the Bannon thing solidified that concern.

I'm sure Bannon is happy with the idea of Avenatti. We know Bannon wants to burn it all down; there's an old thread on that around here somewhere.

Here's my thing. I think a serious third-party run is all-but-certain in 2020.
Is this a bad thing?



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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#216

Post by Bill_G » Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:23 am

kate520 wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:29 am
Off Topic
Before the internets, sometime in the late 90s, Santana talked about his troubles on a radio show in DC. He said he saw the error of his ways and was working hard to change.
I understood your devil's advocate position. Likewise, I've wondered how far back in someone's life is fair game. Is there a cut off age, or are we allowed to examine a person's life en toto from birth to present? Great fodder for another thread.



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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#217

Post by Whip » Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:45 am

Bill_G wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:23 am
kate520 wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:29 am
Off Topic
Before the internets, sometime in the late 90s, Santana talked about his troubles on a radio show in DC. He said he saw the error of his ways and was working hard to change.
I understood your devil's advocate position. Likewise, I've wondered how far back in someone's life is fair game. Is there a cut off age, or are we allowed to examine a person's life en toto from birth to present? Great fodder for another thread.
I don't believe he was ever in Toto. :-D



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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#218

Post by Mikedunford » Sat Sep 29, 2018 2:57 pm

Somerset wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:09 am
Mikedunford wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:28 am
Sam the Centipede wrote:
Fri Sep 28, 2018 11:16 pm
The Michael Avenatti Show seems akin to a fireworks display to me: it gives amusement to many onlookers but ultimately achieves very little and may even cause some damage if sparks land in unfortunate places.

It certainly isn't worth a flouncing session or even extended huffery and puffery.
I'm worried about the damage - the Bannon thing solidified that concern.

I'm sure Bannon is happy with the idea of Avenatti. We know Bannon wants to burn it all down; there's an old thread on that around here somewhere.

Here's my thing. I think a serious third-party run is all-but-certain in 2020.
Is this a bad thing?
I'm not against a real third party in principle, and it might even be needed. But I don't think it's what we're likely to get in 2020 - instead, I think we're likely to see a run by Flake or Corker - in other words, by a conventional, mainstream Republican who loves tax cuts, judges like Kavanaugh, and shredding the safety net.


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#219

Post by TollandRCR » Sat Sep 29, 2018 5:42 pm

A real third party may be the only way to salvage the old Republican Party. I do not see today's Republican leadership, much less Trump, as capable of rebuilding that party; I do see them as violently opposed. They have power because of the collapse of conservative principles. Perhaps a third party can reclaim those principles.


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#220

Post by bob » Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:01 pm

Bannon's examples for 2020's "third party" were ... Romney and Bloomberg. :roll:

Nonetheless, shirley more than a few moderate Republicans have considered ceding the party to the president and establishing in a new banner.


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#221

Post by TollandRCR » Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:20 pm

I hope so. Bannon favoring Romney and Bloomberg surprises me no end. They would certainly be preferable to Trump.


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#222

Post by Sam the Centipede » Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:28 pm

A third party candidate who takes votes from the Republicans is certainly more attractive than one who splits the decent people vote!



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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#223

Post by TexasFilly » Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:37 pm

TollandRCR wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:20 pm
I hope so. Bannon favoring Romney and Bloomberg surprises me no end. They would certainly be preferable to Trump.
I think he isn't favoring either of them but finds them useful stooges for Trump to defeat.


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#224

Post by Reality Check » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:30 pm

Mikedunford wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 5:25 am

I'm worried that he's right, but more worried that he's wrong, but we'll go there anyway.
We can only hope so. Otherwise we will have 4 more years of Trump and we are fucked. Sounds like you are just worried, period.


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Re: Kavanaugh hearings: Avenatti casually tossing bombs

#225

Post by woodworker » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:15 pm

BigSkip wrote:
Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:53 pm
woodworker wrote:
Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:06 pm
FierceRedPanda: Anyone who reads my posts know that I largely agree with you re: Avenatti. Please do not leave. One of the characteristics that makes the Fogbow incredibly valuable, at least to me, is the diversity of opinions, with there being a level of intelligence, reasoning and integrity behind those opinions that is not often found IRL, must less the internet.

We need that diversity of opinion because, among other reasons, it makes us better able , to defend and support our own opinions. I respect and look forward to reading your posts. But I also look forward to reading posts that I disagree with because they make me re-examine my arguments.

I know I am not doing a good job of expressing my thoughts here (I blame that on my third lithotrypsy yesterday), but please do not leave.

And to everyone: Anyone who knows me knows that I don't tolerate fools easily and that I have absolutely no hesitation about telling assholes that they are assholes. But I am begging everyone here to take a step back and remember why most of us got involved here originally, which was, IMO, because we saw something wrong in our society (which ever wrong it was may be different for different people) and we care enough to try to fix that wrong.

Without becoming too pollyannish, I hope we can remember that and remember that, whatever our differences, those differences are usually less significant in the grand scheme of things than the wrongs we are trying to address (shades of the closing scenes in Casablanca).

As a side note, I am sure that there are numerous lurkers here who could make significant contributions to our community but are scared off by some of the attacks we make on each other. I am saying "can't we all get along," but I hope we can dial back the vitriol towards each other and save it for the low life, pond scum, hypocritical, lying, etc. Right Wing Nut Jobs and their accomplices, including the Republican Party.
Nice words. Wish you had followed them when you laid into me with name calling a while back.
linky please.


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