North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019-- (R-Win)

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Addie
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North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019-- (R-Win)

#1

Post by Addie »

Politico
Trump, GOP fret loss in bellwether House special election

At a retreat with top GOP donors in Wyoming last week, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy broached a growing concern for senior Republicans: a crucial, do-over election for a North Carolina congressional seat.

McCarthy has traveled to the state to help the Republican candidate, state Sen. Dan Bishop, and has pushed his rank-and-file lawmakers to lend a hand. And as he chatted up contributors, he warned that next month’s vote is critical: Following a devastating 2018 election that demolished the House GOP majority, a win in the nationally-watched race would give the party a badly-needed morale boost.

Republicans are funneling resources into the southern North Carolina district as they try to stave off an embarrassing loss in a GOP-heavy seat that President Donald Trump won in 2016 by more than 11 percentage points. With private polling showing a close race between Bishop and Democrat Dan McCready, Trump will travel to the district on Sept. 9, the night before the special election, for a rally in Fayetteville, N.C. And the White House is also planning to deploy Vice President Mike Pence and the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., before the election.

The GOP appeared to have held the seat narrowly last November, but Republican Mark Harris’ apparent 905-vote victory over McCready was thrown out by the state board of elections, which found evidence that a Harris consultant had committed ballot fraud. That set up the new election in a state central to Trump’s reelection, a must-win Senate race and the host city for Trump’s convention next summer.

Republicans hope that Trump’s involvement in the district — which is filled with the type of white and older working-class voters that powered his 2016 win — will put Bishop over the top.

“This race is about Donald Trump,” said Jim Blaine, a senior adviser to Bishop's campaign. “Dan's embraced Trump 100 percent.”

The election is serving as a testing ground for Trump’s 2020 message and strategy. Bishop has worked to nationalize the race, labeling McCready a “socialist” and, more recently, pushing out immigration ads echoing Trump’s rhetoric against Latino immigrants, including a spot in which he criticizes the Mecklenburg County sheriff for not cooperating with federal immigration enforcement officials.


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

#2

Post by Addie »

Politico
POLITICO Playbook: Trump heads into buzzsaw in North Carolina

SIREN … NEW PARTY POLLING … NEXT MONTH’S special election in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District is truly a squeaker. Internal Republican polling has shown GOP candidate DAN BISHOP anywhere from 2 points to 4 points ahead of Democrat DAN MCCREADY. And believe it or not, that’s an improvement, because Bishop was down big in the Charlotte-and-east-area district just a few weeks ago.

DEMOCRATIC PARTY INTERNAL POLLING has MCCREADY up 1 point. So both parties are seeing the same thing: that this race is truly a toss-up, with all results in the margin of error.

REMEMBER: This is a district President DONALD TRUMP won by nearly 12 points, and this race is within the margin of error 10 days before Election Day. THE PRESIDENT is going to try to move the needle with a visit the week after next, but some Democrats are whispering the trend lines are in their direction, with the early indications favoring McCready. McCready ran in 2018 -- so he has a lot of momentum, and recognition.

SPENDING HAS BEEN BIG HERE: The NRCC, Congressional Leadership Fund and Club for Growth have combined for nearly $6 million in spending in this race. The DCCC and House Majority PAC are in for a bit more than $1 million. McCready has vastly outspent Bishop, with the Democrat doling out $4.7 million compared to Bishop’s $1.7 million.

A DEMOCRATIC WIN, of course, would be a very big deal. Combine that with the wave of Repbulican retirements -- and the expectation for more after the recess -- and Republicans are going to have a tough time explaining their current political fortunes. Republicans could easily still pull this thing out.
Adding:
The Hill: Why the North Carolina special election has national implications

DanMcCready for Congress

Donate ActBlue


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

#3

Post by Addie »

Roll Call
Inside Elections poll: Democrat McCready leads GOP’s Bishop in NC redo election

8 percent ‘unsure’ as vote nears for seat left vacant since 2018 election was thrown out


Democrat Dan McCready has a narrow advantage over Republican Dan Bishop heading into the final days of the Sept. 10 redo election in North Carolina’s 9th District, according to a new bipartisan poll for Inside Elections.

The survey, conducted from Monday through Wednesday by Harper Polling and Clarity Campaign Labs, showed McCready ahead of Bishop, 46 percent to 42 percent, with two third-party candidates receiving a combined 3 percent. Some 8 percent of voters were “unsure” and the survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.19 percentage points.

When voters who were leaning toward one candidate were included, McCready’s advantage extended to 49-44 percent.

In November 2018, McCready finished less than a point behind Republican Mark Harris, but a winner was never certified or seated in Congress because of allegations of fraud by a GOP consultant affiliated with the Harris campaign. (Harris opted against running in the redo election.)


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

#4

Post by Addie »

PolitiFact: Trump misleads NC about Dan McCready's immigration stances


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

#5

Post by neonzx »

Addie wrote: Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:07 am
PolitiFact: Trump misleads NC about Dan McCready's immigration stances
Yes, and moments ago he retweeted his tweet from yesterday,
Donald J. Trump Retweeted
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

15h
The Great State of North Carolina has EARLY VOTING for a very important Congressional (Ninth) race. Please vote early (now), or on Election Day, September 10th, for Dan Bishop, a great guy. His opponent wants Open Borders, Sanctuary Cities & is weak on Crime, Military & Vets!


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

#6

Post by Addie »

New York Times
In North Carolina Do-Over Vote, a Reliable Republican District Is Up for Grabs

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Bob Dylan’s nasally voice singing of changing times blasted from the speakers and Democratic activists crowded the patio of a craft-beer emporium on Friday as Megan and Christopher Kubala explained why, after a lifetime of ignoring midterm elections, they had just voted to elect the first Democrat since the civil rights era to represent their North Carolina congressional district.

“I hadn’t voted in midterms, but then after Trump got elected, I started seeing the importance,” said Ms. Kubala, a 51-year-old Democrat and bank executive who called the president “seriously disturbed.” “I’m a little more awake now.”

Mr. Kubala, a 46-year-old Republican, chimed in. “I feel like he’s already won once,” he said of the Democratic candidate, Dan McCready, who fell 905 votes short last year in an election that was overturned after state investigators concluded that the Republican candidate’s campaign had engaged in an illegal voting scheme. “It’s not fair to make him win twice.”

Now Mr. McCready and his new Republican opponent, Dan Bishop, will face off on Tuesday in a do-over of the tainted contest. The odd-year election in the Ninth Congressional District, which stretches from the suburbs of Charlotte to rural and exurban areas farther east, is in many ways the first test of the political terrain heading into 2020, and of the two parties’ dueling strategies for winning over voters.

With public and private polls showing the race nearly tied, Democrats and Republicans are pouring millions of dollars and their most powerful resources into the contest, blanketing the airwaves with negative television advertising. President Trump plans to rally voters in Fayetteville on Monday, while Vice President Mike Pence is scheduled to appear on the other end of the district in Wingate — a one-two punch that observers said reflected Republicans’ deep concern about losing the race.


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

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Post by Addie »

FiveThirtyEight
The North Carolina 9th Is Holding A Do-Over Election. Here’s How To Watch It Like A Pro.

The North Carolina 9th District seat has remained vacant for a third of the 116th Congress — the fallout from a brazen case of election fraud that may have affected the outcome of the 2018 election. Allegedly, a consultant for Republican candidate Mark Harris coordinated an effort to illegally collect unsealed absentee ballots, mislead election authorities and, in some cases, fill out ballots on behalf of voters. As a result, the North Carolina State Board of Elections voted in February to redo the congressional race and later set a new election for Sept. 10. Now, the 9th District will finally vote on a new representative in an election that could go either way. Here’s a look at what’s already happened in the campaign — and what to expect when results roll in after polls close at 7:30 p.m.

1. The candidates

Politically radioactive in the wake of the 2018 scandal, Harris declined to run in the new election, and Republicans nominated state Sen. Dan Bishop in May. On the Democratic side, 2018 candidate Dan McCready is back for a second bite of the apple. A Marine veteran who started a solar-power investment firm, the 36-year-old fits the fresh-faced, moderate mold of many of the Democrats’ most successful 2018 candidates. And buoyed by the national attention he received from Democrats who believe he was cheated out of a congressional seat, McCready has also raised more than $4.8 million in total contributions between Jan. 1 and Aug. 21. By contrast, Bishop has raised less than $1.7 million in total contributions.

But conservative PACs have more than closed the gap. Led by the National Republican Congressional Committee, as of Monday, outside groups had spent more than $6.8 million to campaign either for Bishop or against McCready. Taking both campaign and outside spending into account, pro-Bishop forces have spent at least1 $8.6 million so far this year, and pro-McCready forces have spent $8.4 million. ...

Republicans have also tried hard to nationalize the race. While McCready has distanced himself from the “crazy aspirational things” being discussed by the Democratic 2020 presidential candidates, President Trump has starred in Bishop’s closing ad, recorded a pro-Bishop robocall and held a campaign rally for him in Fayetteville on Monday night. That could be a boon to Bishop, as Trump carried the 9th District by 12 percentage points in 2016.

2. The district

Normally, Republicans would indeed have an edge in the North Carolina 9th District. Until January, it was represented by GOP Rep. Robert Pittenger, and according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric,2 it is 14 points redder than the nation as a whole. But we are in a Democratic-leaning national environment (albeit not quite as favorable as 2018), and McCready has already proved himself a strong candidate. In the 2018 general election, Harris got only 905 more votes than McCready, a margin that would have made it the third-closest House race (by percentage points) of 2018.

So it may be a cliché, but the election may well come down to turnout; not all parts of this diverse district may vote in equal numbers. The 9th District runs over 100 miles along the South Carolina border, from Charlotte in the west to Fayetteville in the east. One crucial area to watch will be the part of Mecklenburg County that overlaps with the 9th District — a wealthy, predominantly white wedge of metro Charlotte that has rapidly transitioned from red to blue in the Trump era. McCready won it by 10 points in the original 2018 election, and based on last year’s voting patterns, anything more than that will put him on pace to win districtwide. Even matching that 2018 performance, however, might be enough, since Mecklenburg may constitute an unusually large share of the 9th District vote this year. That’s because Charlotte is also holding its municipal primaries on Tuesday, which could increase turnout in those parts of the district. Even better for McCready, most of the contested races are on the Democratic side, potentially boosting turnout among his base of registered Democrats.

On the other hand, next-door Union County — home to some farther-flung Charlotte suburbs like Indian Trail and Monroe — is still the district’s richest source of Republican votes. If Bishop wins it by more than Harris’s 20-point margin, it will be a good sign for the GOP. Finally, the six smaller counties east of Union are home to a mix of black, Native American and working-class white voters. McCready won those counties by a combined margin of 7 points, but they’re a bit of a wild card for the do-over election, as it’s hard to predict which of these demographics will turn out for such an oddly-timed contest.

3. The polls ...


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

#8

Post by Addie »

New York Times: North Carolina Special Election Results: Ninth House District

162,398 votes, 81% reporting (170 of 210 precincts)

Dan Bishop Republican -- 81,995 50.5%
Dan McCready Democrat --83,077 48.9
Jeff Scott Libertarian
Allen Smith Green

Polls closed at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

#9

Post by NotaPerson »

Thanks for reminding us of this Addie. It's going to be an interesting evening.


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

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Post by Addie »

yw, Nota :bighug:
NotaPerson wrote: Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:29 pm Thanks for reminding us of this Addie. It's going to be an interesting evening.


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

#11

Post by Orlylicious »

Wow, if the D pulls this off after having the entire GOP there, with Donald last night and Mike Pence and and and, that's terrific news. GOP has had the district since 1963! Still early but if McCready wins I bet we'll see a lot more retirements on the GOP side.










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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

#12

Post by Addie »

Okay, this is officially a nail-biter.


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

#13

Post by Kendra »

I am trying not to get excited over the small lead, because look what happened when I thought Hillary was safely ahead...


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

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Post by Addie »

It looks like most of the state is still out. I think that's better for the Rs, but we'll see, I guess.
Kendra wrote: Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:26 pm I am trying not to get excited over the small lead, because look what happened when I thought Hillary was safely ahead...


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

#15

Post by SuzieC »

Bishop leading. Need Charlotte eastern suburbs to come in.


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

#16

Post by Addie »

-Deleted


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019--(R-Win)

#17

Post by Addie »

Kicking this.
Addie wrote: Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:05 pm
New York Times: North Carolina Special Election Results: Ninth House District

189,363 votes, 100% reporting (210 of 210 precincts)

Dan Bishop Republican -- 96,081 50.7%
Dan McCready Democrat -- 92,144 48.7
Jeff Scott Libertarian
Allen Smith Green

Polls closed at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time.


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

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Post by Kendra »

:cantlook:

Time for bed And then see what the morning brings.


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019

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Post by SuzieC »

At the very least, Dems forced Rs to spend a ton of money to defend this district, which Trump won by 12%.


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019-- (R-Win)

#20

Post by Orlylicious »

And as Marc mentions, "Reminder: Today’s special election in NC-9 is the result of a massive election fraud scheme by the Republicans that lead to criminal indictments. Their conduct was so bad that the Republican candidate himself agreed that a new election was needed."



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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019-- (R-Win)

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:madguy:


Twelve years!
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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019-- (R-Win)

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Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater »

Let's remember the last real election before Harris' election fraud; pittinger beat the Democrat by 17 points. 2.2% is a huge change


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Re: North Carolina 9th CD: Special Election Sept 10 2019-- (R-Win)

#23

Post by bob »

538:
That race was the do-over election in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District, where alleged election fraud tainted the results of the 2018 contest to such a degree that the state elections board opted to hold a new election. After the Republican candidate got just 905 more votes than the Democrat in the 2018 election, Republicans pulled off a clearer win this year: Based on unofficial results as of 11:30 p.m. on Tuesday night, Republican state senator Dan Bishop defeated Democrat Dan McCready 51 percent to 49 percent. However, Democrats did 11 points* better in the district than we’d expect them to in a neutral political environment, as this is normally a heavily Republican district; it is 14 points redder than the nation as a whole, according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric.

The results also represent a continuation of the mini-realignment we’ve seen in the Trump era of suburbs getting bluer and rural areas moving even more toward the GOP. For instance, McCready lost the district even as he won suburban Mecklenburg County by 13 percentage points, an improvement on the 2018 results, when he won Mecklenburg by 10 points. (The portion of Mecklenburg that falls in the 9th District consists of affluent white areas of metro Charlotte.) But as noted by Ryan Matsumoto, an analyst at Inside Elections, McCready did worse than his 2018 performance in every other county, most of which are sparsely populated.


* The partisan lean is R+13.56, and Bishop won by 2.08 points.


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