Issues 2020: Electability

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Addie
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Re: Issues 2020: Electability

#76

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Newsweek
Nearly Half of Voters Say They Could Not Vote for a 'Democratic Socialist,' Poll Finds ...

The primary survey, conducted by Yahoo! News and YouGov between February 12 and 13, found that only 35 percent of voters would consider voting for a "democratic socialist," while 18 percent said they were "not sure."

While the poll's findings might sound like bad news for 2020 presidential candidate Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, the same study also put Sanders ahead of each of his Democratic rivals in a one-on-one race. In many cases, the Vermont senator was ahead by double-digit margins.

In a string of hypothetical races, the study, which saw 1,530 U.S. registered voters polled, put Sanders ahead of each of his main competitors, with the Vermont senator beating former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg by 15 points, with Sanders claiming 53 percent of support, compared with Bloomberg's 38 percent.

Meanwhile, in imagined races with former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, voters suggested Sanders would win by 17 points and 21 points respectively. The Vermont senator claimed 54 percent of support compared with Buttigieg's 37 percent, and 54 percent to Klobuchar's 33 percent.

The competitors closest to beating Sanders, the study suggested, would be Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who fell behind the Vermont Senator by just two points, with Sanders claiming 44 percent of support compared to Warren's 42 percent, and former Vice President Joe Biden, who came up four points behind, with 44 percent to Sanders' 48 percent. ...

As of early Monday morning, an average of polls updated by RealClearPolitics found Sanders to be in the lead with 23.6 percent of the vote compared to Biden's 19.2. Bloomberg, meanwhile, came up at 14.2 percent, with Warren at 12.4 percent, Buttigieg at 10.6 and Klobuchar behind with 4.6 percent.
Don't do stupid shit. -Barack Obama

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Addie
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Re: Issues 2020: Electability

#77

Post by Addie »

CNN - Chris Cillizza
Here's exactly how Michael Bloomberg is surging ...

First, here's where Bloomberg is running strongest (and remember that the former mayor trails Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by 12 points in the overall national vote):

1) Moderates: Bloomberg has emerged as the top choice for Democratic voters who view themselves more in the ideological middle of the party. He takes 29% among moderates as compared to 23% for Sanders, 14% for Biden and 13% for Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar.

2) Non-college whites: This was one of the pillars of Biden's support going into this race -- he's from Scranton! -- but no longer. Among this group, it's Sanders who leads with 34% followed by Bloomberg at 24% and Biden at just 10%. (Among all white voters, Bernie leads with 29% followed by Bloomberg at 18% and Warren at 15%. Biden takes just 9%.)

3) Old(er) voters: While Sanders has a massive lead over the field among voters younger than 45 (he's at 54%!), it's Bloomberg whose the top choice of the 45 and older crowd. He takes 27%, to 22% for Biden and 13% for Sanders.

4) Small-town/rural voters: Yes, it's not exactly the most obvious fit: the guy who spent more than a decade running New York City performing well among people who lives in small towns and rural areas. But here we are! Sanders leads among these voters with 28%, but he is followed closely by Bloomberg at 24%. Biden takes 13%.

The one place where Biden remains strong(ish) -- I told you we'd get here! -- is among black voters. Biden wins 31% among that group, to 28% for Sanders and 16% for Bloomberg. Among all non-white voters, it's Sanders in the lead at 34% followed by Biden at 21% and Bloomberg at 19%. In the December NPR poll, Sanders led among non-white voters with 29%, with Biden at 26% and Warren at 13%. Bloomberg's support among that group, such as it was, was lumped into "other candidates" in the poll.

While there's a tendency to focus on the ongoing fight between Sanders and Bloomberg in the race, it's actually Biden that Bloomberg needs to put down before he can worry too much about Sanders. If Bloomberg can eat into Biden's support among black voters, Biden is done for. Bloomberg will have fully taken his slot in the race -- and his voters.
Don't do stupid shit. -Barack Obama

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p0rtia
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Re: Issues 2020: Electability

#78

Post by p0rtia »

Update. The Electability issue has been clarified: Half the doomsday class of the Democratic party (+ the XR pundits) is shouting that Bernie will be destroyed in the general, because...socialism, guns, age, bros, etc. And the other half (+ left-leaning pundits) is shouting that Biden is will be destroyed in the general, because...bumbles, Ukraine, age, Anita Hill, etc.

To me, electability remains a phoney issue. Babble. That's why they play the game.
No matter where you go, there you are! :towel:
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