New poll of California Democrats shows Bernie Sanders leading as Elizabeth Warren nosedives
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is slipping in both national and early state polls, and it looks like the slide in support is happening in California as well.
A new poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies conducted for the Los Angeles Times shows that Warren lost seven percentage points since the poll was last conducted in September, and is no longer leading the Democratic primary field.
The new leader is Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who is up five percentage points since the poll was last conducted.
Here are top five candidates from the poll:
The poll of nearly 1,700 registered California Democrats was conducted before Harris dropped out of the race on Tuesday. No other candidate received more than 3 percent support.Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders - 24 percent (up five percentage points since September)
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren - 22 percent (down seven percentage points since September)
Former Vice President Joe Biden - 14 percent (down six percentage points since September)
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg - 12 percent (up six percentage points since September)
California Sen. Kamala Harris - 7 percent (down one percentage point since September)
Buttigieg's California surge also coincides with a national surge that has vaulted him into the top tier of candidates. While Biden appears to be trending down in California, his national numbers have not seemed to move much in recent weeks.
Buttigieg maintains Iowa lead, Sanders jumps to second
South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg continues to lead the field of Democratic presidential hopefuls in Iowa, according to the latest polling, but the rest of the top tier has reshuffled a bit.
A poll conducted by Iowa State University of likely Democratic caucus attendees showed Buttigieg with 24 percent support. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders came in at 21 percent, with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 18 percent and former Vice President Joe Biden at 15 percent.
Iowa polling in late November had Buttigieg at 25 percent, with Warren in second place at 16 percent. Sanders and Biden were both at 15 percent at the time.
The Iowa caucuses kick off the 2020 election season on Feb. 3, followed by the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 11. Buttigieg also leads the field in New Hampshire, with recent polling putting him at 18 percent, followed closely by Biden at 17 percent, with Sanders at 15 percent and Warren at 12 percent.
Biden has maintained his lead nationally in several surveys, as well as in Nevada and South Carolina, the other two of the “early four” voting states. Nevada holds its caucuses Feb. 22, while the South Carolina primary is Feb. 29.
Poll: Biden has edge over Trump in Florida
TALLAHASSEE — Joe Biden is the only Democrat who presents “serious competition” to President Donald Trump in Florida, according to a poll released Tuesday.
The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey of registered Florida voters showed Biden with a narrow 47-45 lead over the president, within the 4 percentage-point margin of error.
Biden was the only candidate from either political party with a positive approval rating in the crucial battleground state. Forty-five percent of respondents had a favorable view of the former vice president; 41 percent had a negative view.
Trump had a 46 percent approval rating. Forty-seven percent of respondents disapproved of the president’s job performance, the poll found.
Among registered voters surveyed, Trump easily bested Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren 51-42 and held comfortable leads over Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont (49-44) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (49-45). ...
To date, only Warren and Biden have meaningful campaign footprints in Florida. Biden vacuumed up early legislative endorsements and Warren has been staffing up in the Sunshine State.
Bloomberg this month made his first round of Florida hires, naming Brandon Davis his Florida state director. Davis is a former chief of staff at the Democratic National Committee and led Democrat Andrew Gillum’s failed 2018 bid for Florida governor.
Adding:Poll: Trump trails Biden in Virginia, leads other 2020 Democrats
President Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden in Virginia, but he leads the other top contenders for the Democratic nomination in the state, according to a new poll.
The latest survey from Mason-Dixon, released Tuesday, finds Biden's support at 49 percent, compared with Trump's 45 percent, in the Old Dominion.
But the statewide survey also found the president with a 6 percentage point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a 4-point lead over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and a 2-point lead over South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Virginia has been trending blue in recent elections and has gone for the Democratic presidential nominee in each of the past three cycles.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton defeated Trump by 5.4 points in Virginia in 2016. Last month, Democrats won the General Assembly, giving them complete control of state government.
The Mason-Dixon survey, however, underscores Democratic concerns that the 2020 election will be a nail-biter through Election Day.
NPR: Poll Shows Biden As The Only Democrat Who Would Defeat Trump In Virginia
USA Today: Trump would beat every Democrat but Biden in Florida and Virginia, polls say
Sanders starts 2020 in strong position in Iowa and New Hampshire — CBS News Battleground Tracker
The New Year opens with Bernie Sanders in his best standing yet against the field in Iowa and New Hampshire. He's in a first-place tie with Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg in Iowa. All three are at 23%, and each would get a similar number of delegates out of the caucuses if they were to take place today, according to the CBS News Battleground Tracker. Sanders also now has a narrow edge in New Hampshire, with a two-point lead over Biden.
Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren has slipped in New Hampshire since November, as liberal voters have moved toward Sanders instead. However, she's still in position to get delegates there. ...
Apart from recent gains in New Hampshire, Sanders' support is still best characterized by its steadiness and strength compared to other candidates who have seen more volatility. Nearly half (47%) of his New Hampshire voters say they've definitely made up their minds. By comparison, just 15% of Biden's backers in the state describe their choice that way.
The very real scenario of a protracted, ‘bizarro world’ Democratic primary
The dynamics have changed so much that states voting after Super Tuesday are suddenly taking on new prominence.
Democrats are now beginning to confront a very real scenario where the nomination — and the winnowing — will not be decided in states where campaigns have been plowing ground for more than a year, but in places and calendar dates so deep into primary season that until recently they’ve received almost no attention at all.
The Iowa field is bunched together with little daylight between a handful of well-funded candidates. Each of the four early voting states continues to present the prospect of a different winner. And, at the end of that gauntlet on Super Tuesday, a free-spending billionaire — Michael Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor — is waiting to challenge whichever candidate or candidates emerge.
It’s a unique set of circumstances that has the campaigns — and party officials — scrambling to make sense of the reconfigured landscape.
Looking at the possibility of a still-contested nomination even after Super Tuesday’s massive delegate allocation on March 3, Washington state Democratic Party chair Tina Podlodowski said mid-March will “probably matter more than ever before.”
One strategist working with a presidential candidate said, “We’ve never had a situation where we get past Super Tuesday and there’s still five people in the field,” predicting that possibility this year.
“We’re in bizarro world here,” the strategist said.
Emerson College Polling
New Mexico 2020: Democrats Strong in the Land of Enchantment, but Split Between Sanders and Biden for Nomination
Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling explains: “as the country focuses on the early nominating contests, we looked at the end of the nomination schedule to the June 2nd New Mexico Primary to see how things might play out if the race is still contested at that point. It appears if Sanders and Biden are able to emerge as the top two candidates, they are set up for a close showdown in New Mexico - but the race is still fluid as a majority of voters, 52%, say they could change their mind.”
As seen in previous Emerson primary polls, Sanders dominates with younger voters, taking 44% of the vote from those 18-29, and 36% from those 30-49. His numbers drop among those 50-64, taking 22% of that vote, and bottoms out with those over 65 at 7%. In an inverse relationship, Biden takes 17% of the vote from those under 50, and 37% of the vote with those over 50.
Public Policy Polling
Public Policy Polling Iowa Survey Results
If the candidates for President were Democrat
Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump, who
would you vote for?
Joe Biden 46% ........................................................
Donald Trump 49% .................................................
Not sure 5% ..........................................................If the candidates for President were Democrat
Pete Buttigieg and Republican Donald Trump,
who would you vote for?
Pete Buttigieg 47% .................................................
Donald Trump 48% .................................................
Not sure 5% ..........................................................If the candidates for President were Democrat
Bernie Sanders and Republican Donald Trump,
who would you vote for?
Bernie Sanders 44% ...............................................
Donald Trump 49% .................................................
Not sure 7% ..........................................................If the candidates for President were Democrat
Elizabeth Warren and Republican Donald
Trump, who would you vote for?
Elizabeth Warren 44% ............................................
Donald Trump 49%
Not sure 7% ..........................................................
Poll shows Buttigieg, Biden, Sanders and Warren leading New Hampshire
With just over one month to go until the New Hampshire primary, a new poll indicates it's a tight race among the top-four Democratic candidates.
According to a Monmouth University New Hampshire poll released Thursday, Pete Buttigieg is leading among registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters likely to participate in the contest with 20% support, but Joe Biden is only one point behind at 19%, Bernie Sanders is at 18% and Elizabeth Warren is at 15% making it essentially a four-way race.
Compared to Monmouth University's New Hampshire from September, Buttigieg has gained ten points while Sanders' support increased 6 points. Warren, meanwhile, dropped 12 points while Biden also saw a decline in support by 6 points.
The new poll finds Amy Klobuchar's support on the rise with 6%. Tulsi Gabbard and Tom Steyer were each polling at 4%, Andrew Yang 3%, Michael Bennet at 2% and Cory Booker at 1%.
Can Pete Buttigieg Win in New Hampshire? New Polls Show Tie
Pete Buttigieg likes to invite “future former Republicans” and independent voters into the fold, and the fiercely independent people of New Hampshire seem to be open to that offer.
In a state where residents cherish their “Live Free or Die” motto, 42% of voters are not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican Party, and they range from progressive to conservative.
So as Buttigieg crisscrossed New Hampshire during a four-day swing that ended this week, he tried to woo voters outside of the Democratic Party. Making inroads with independents may be a matter of survival nationally for the 37-year-old political neophyte, who has struggled to appeal to nonwhite voters and is banking on strong performances in Iowa and New Hampshire.
“I’m not pretending to be conservative, but I am offering a message that will involve and welcome Democrats, independents and a lot of these Republicans I talk to who are as disgusted as the rest of us by what’s happening in this White House under the banner of their party,” he said. ...
The message may be working in New Hampshire.
A Monmouth University poll released Thursday shows Buttigieg has doubled his support there since September and is now in a virtual tie with Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Buttigieg rose from 10% in September to 20% in the poll released Thursday. Biden was second with 19%, Sanders had 18% and Elizabeth Warren finished fourth with 15%. The margin of error was 4.9 percentage points.
Of the top tier candidates, Buttigieg has held the second most events in the state, only trailing Amy Klobuchar, according to a candidate tracker complied by New England Cable News.
Buttigieg’s rise coincides with his strategic shift toward the center. Despite starting his presidential campaign with a pitch that hued closer to the most progressive candidates, he was quickly overtaken by Warren and Sanders. Now, he is battling Biden and, increasingly, Klobuchar for the moderate lane.
Fox News Poll: Biden and Sanders vie for lead in Nevada, Biden tops Trump
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders remain the top picks for the Democratic nomination among Nevada caucusgoers, while Elizabeth Warren fades and Tom Steyer gains momentum. In the general election contest, the latest Fox News Poll of Nevada voters shows Democrats besting President Trump -- but only Biden has a lead outside the poll’s margin of error.
First, in the race for the Democratic nomination, Biden tops Sanders by 23-17 percent among Democratic caucusgoers, with both down one percentage point since November. Warren comes in at 12 percent, down from 18 percent -- and ties with Tom Steyer for third. Steyer’s 12 percent is up from 5 percent two months ago.
Expect more shifts, as just over half of Nevada Democrats, 51 percent, say they could change their mind before the February 22 caucus.
The groups where Warren saw some of her biggest erosion include women, non-college degree whites, and political liberals. ...
By a 51-39 percent margin, caucusgoers prefer a candidate who will fundamentally change how the political system works in Washington over one who will restore the system to how it was pre-Trump administration.
Biden is the clear favorite among voters wanting to restore the system, while those preferring change give Sanders a slight edge, although their support divides between the top four.
“The fact that Nevada Democrats have a clear preference for fundamental change could make it difficult for Biden to grow his support as we get closer to caucus day and decision time approaches,” says Chris Anderson, a Democratic pollster who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw.
Des Moines Register
Adding:Bernie Sanders leads the Iowa Poll for the first time, just weeks before the Iowa caucuses ...
A new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows 20% of likely Democratic caucusgoers name Sanders as their first choice for president.
After a surge of enthusiasm that pushed Pete Buttigieg to the top of the field in November, the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor has faded, falling 9 percentage points to land behind both Sanders and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Warren is at 17%; Buttigieg, 16%; and former Vice President Joe Biden, 15%.
“There’s no denying that this is a good poll for Bernie Sanders. He leads, but it’s not an uncontested lead,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “He’s got a firmer grip on his supporters than the rest of his compatriots.” ...
Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren have remained clustered atop the Register’s Iowa Poll throughout the 2020 campaign cycle, though no one has definitively pulled away from the pack. Instead, each of the top four has now led the Iowa Poll at some point this cycle as the field continues to shift.
The percentage of those who say their mind is made up about which candidate to support on caucus night has risen to 40% — up 10 percentage points from November. But that leaves 45% who say they could still be persuaded to support someone else and another 13% who have not picked a favorite candidate yet. ...
Other Democratic candidates — including those banking on a late burst of momentum — failed to gain much ground in the January poll. U.S. Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Cory Booker of New Jersey both held steady: Klobuchar at 6% and Booker at 3%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang grew his support from 3% in November to 5% today. ...
In the new poll, a slew of other contenders fell well below the 15% viability mark.
HuffPo: New Poll Shows It’s Anybody’s Race In Iowa
Sanders rises and Buttigieg falls, but no candidate has a clear edge in the first contest of the Democratic primary.
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If anyone "wins" Iowa with only 20% of the vote, to me that suggests the result is more confusion than clarity. What have you really won, if 80% of the voters chose someone else?
Jeez. Buckle up, folks. It's gonna be a bumpy ride for a few months.
Jeez. Buckle up, folks. It's gonna be a bumpy ride for a few months.
CNN/ Des Moines Register/ Mediacom Iowa Poll
Very Favorable (percent)
Warren 32Mostly Favorable (percent)
Warren 38Mostly Unfavorable (percent)
Warren 14Very Unfavorable (percent)
Warren 10Total Favorable (percent)
Warren 70Total Unfavorable (percent)
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Yeah, although I still think the "just pick someone so they can beat Trump" dynamic is being underestimated here. John Kerry won Iowa with 37% in 2004 and then breezed to the nomination from there, because the party just wanted to beat Bush.
"There's no play here. There's no angle. There's no champagne room. I'm not a miracle worker, I'm a janitor. The math on this is simple; the smaller the mess, the easier it is for me to clean up." -Michael Clayton
Tampa Bay Times
This is what the Democratic presidential primary looks like in Florida right now
The campaigns are coming to terms with the likelihood that the nomination won’t be decided by the time Floridians vote.
ST. PETERSBURG — In a crammed living room on Friday night, Lisa Perry welcomed 18 men and women to the fight to capture the Democratic presidential nomination for Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. ...
This is what the Democratic presidential primary looks and sounds like in Tampa Bay and Florida. It’s volunteers huddling up at a Seminole park before knocking on nearby doors. It’s deep-pocketed supporters gathering in a South Tampa home to pledge donations. It’s a few people meeting in a St. Petersburg bar to call voters in faraway states.
Compared to the large apparatuses getting all the attention in early nominating states like Iowa and New Hampshire, the campaign efforts so far in the nation’s largest battleground are minuscule. And they don’t come close to the massive, well-funded machine to reelect President Donald Trump. But the footprints for the Democratic candidates are growing here as their campaigns grapple with the likelihood that the nomination won’t be decided by the time Floridians cast ballots March 17.
It means Florida’s Democratic voters could be in a strange position: They might have a say in picking the party’s nominee. That hasn’t happened since 1992.
Denver Post: Colorado’s presidential primary pits billionaires against the liberal grassroots
Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg have the biggest presences here a month before voting starts
If you hear a knock on the door these days, it might be a volunteer for Elizabeth Warren. If your phone rings, the caller could be a Bernie Sanders backer. And if you turn on the TV, it’s a near-guarantee you’ll see yet another Mike Bloomberg ad.
Those Democratic presidential campaigns have ramped up in the biggest ways in Colorado by hiring dozens of staffers combined, rallying volunteers and plotting out their ground games before the state’s March 3 primary.
Time is running short, with the start of mail voting here just a month away. Yet as the major candidates in make plans to compete in the 15 states and territories with Super Tuesday contests — including a few with larger delegate prizes, including the mother lode of California — not all are fighting to win in Colorado just yet.
So far, it has been the battle of the billionaires versus the champions of the liberal grassroots.
Denver-based political strategist Rick Ridder calls January “the scrambling period” of the primaries, as candidates polling well in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early states take a hard look at their tight resources and plot out strategies for Super Tuesday and beyond. The two candidates complicating this typical dynamic are Bloomberg and fellow billionaire activist Tom Steyer, both of them flush with their own cash and eager to compete in many second-wave states, including Colorado.
Monmouth University Polling Institute
Dem 2020 Race Continues to Shift
Support is firming up, but many still open to changing their support
West Long Branch, NJ – Former Vice President Joe Biden, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren continue to top the leaderboard in Iowa, although their relative positions have shifted in the fourth Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar has also made gains from prior polls, but remains outside of the top tier of contenders for now. A majority of supporters of the top tier candidates indicate they are set on their choices, but a sizable number say there is at least a moderate possibility they could still change their minds. The poll also finds that 6-in-10 likely caucusgoers oppose switching their state’s presidential nominating contest to a primary election.
Four candidates are currently vying for the top spot in next month’s Iowa caucuses – Biden (24%), Sanders (18%), Buttigieg (17%), and Warren (15%). Compared with Monmouth’s November poll, Biden has gained 5 points (up from 19%) and Sanders has gained 5 points (up from 13%), while Buttigieg has lost 5 points (down from 22%) and Warren has declined by 3 points (down from 18%). Klobuchar is knocking on the door of the top tier with 8% support in the current poll (up from 5% in November).
Most of the demographic shifts since November are within the poll’s margin of error, but there was a particularly notable swing among voters age 65 and older away from Buttigieg (11% now, 26% in November) and toward Biden (44% now, 29% in November). Klobuchar has also gained support among these older voters (13% now, 5% in November).
“A plurality of older voters line up behind Biden, but others in that age group seem to be looking for a fresher face. They appear to be split between Buttigieg and Klobuchar right now,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Warren Trailing Biden, Sanders in NH, NBC10 Boston/Franklin Pierce/Herald Poll Shows
Elizabeth Warren fell from 1st to 3rd place from a previous poll conducted in October
Elizabeth Warren has fallen into third place in New Hampshire with just one month to go until the New Hampshire primary, according to a new NBC10 Boston/Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll.
The poll, released Monday, has Joe Biden in first place at 26%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 22% and Warren at 18%. Pete Buttigieg attracts 7% and late entrant Michael Bloomberg 4%.
Bloomberg's name is not on the New Hampshire primary ballot, but he has been running television ads in the state and was included in the survey to identify the level of his support there.
The poll results represent a significant change from a poll in October that showed Warren (25%) and Biden (24%) in a statistical dead heat. But Warren was also polling much higher nationally at that point. ...
Seventy-seven percent of Democratic primary voters surveyed said they will definitely or probably watch Tuesday night's Democratic debate in Iowa, while less than half of likely Republican primary voters said they'll tune in.
The New Hampshire primary will be held on Feb. 11.
Bay Area News Group
Bernie Sanders leading in close California presidential primary, new poll finds
Sanders jumps to first with 27 percent, but lead over Biden, Warren within margin of error
With just over a month and a half until voters go to the polls, Sen. Bernie Sanders is leading a tight three-way race in California’s Democratic presidential primary, a new survey released Monday afternoon found.
The poll, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, found Sanders leading with 27 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 24 percent and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 23 percent.
Sanders jumped 10 percentage points since the last time PPIC surveyed Californians in November, mirroring a similar surge in recent months around the country for the Vermont senator. But his lead remains well within the poll’s margin of error, a sign of how close the race for the White House remains in California.
The poll found former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg in a distant fourth at 6 percent, while Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar is at fifth with 4 percent.
Exclusive: Nevada poll shows Biden-Sanders showdown in a tightening Democratic race
It's not just Iowa: An exclusive Suffolk University/USA TODAY Poll of Nevada shows another early-voting state where the Democratic presidential race is tightening, former vice president Joe Biden is struggling to hold front-runner status and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is showing strength.
As Democratic contenders prepare to debate Tuesday in Des Moines – the final debate before the opening caucuses in Iowa – the field is shrinking and the race may be heading toward a showdown between a familiar centrist and a firebrand liberal who represent starkly different choices for the party.
In Nevada, the third state on the calendar, the new survey shows Biden leading Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by a single percentage point, 19%-18%. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is third at 11%. ...
In Nevada, Biden has dropped by 9 points and Warren by 7 points from the average of recent statewide polls calculated by RealClearPolitics.com. Sanders' support has proven steadier, dipping by 2 points. No other candidate has broken into double digits in the Silver State.
"Looking at the totality of the data, you'd have to say that Biden, Sanders and Warren are in a tier of their own," said veteran Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. But, he added, "It's late to say it's early, but there's still time for things to happen. What happens in Iowa and what happens in New Hampshire will affect what happens in Nevada."
Bloomberg’s campaign snowballs to 1,000 staffers and counting
An aide said the behemoth organization will “continue to grow in the weeks and months to come.”
Mike Bloomberg’s presidential campaign has brought on more than 700 staffers spread out across 33 states, with a growing number of organizers joining his ranks in states that vote on Super Tuesday, aides told POLITICO.
All told, the former New York mayor's operation totals more than 1,000 people, a figure that includes hundreds of staffers who work out of his Manhattan headquarters.
The unprecedented scale and scope of the campaign — he has also spent more than $200 million on TV ads — gives Bloomberg a massive footprint in states that hold their primaries on March 3 or later. Bloomberg is also working to provide a Democratic counterbalance to President Donald Trump in parts of the country vital to his party in November.
Bloomberg advisers said they are especially focused on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which are further out on the primary calendar and where Trump has been able to roam mostly on his own given the Democratic field’s focus on early primary states. In all, Bloomberg’s early ground operations now includes eight states with 40 or more aides and 18 states with at least 20 staffers.
“We’re building a structure that intends to talk to Democrats everywhere in the country because we think that’s good for Mike Bloomberg, but as importantly or more importantly, it’s a way to engage people that are currently only being talked to by Donald Trump and ignored by the rest of the field," Dan Kanninen, Bloomberg’s states director, told POLITICO.