Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

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Addie
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Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#1

Post by Addie » Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:27 am

Politico
‘The map is different now’: Trump blows the 2020 race wide open

The next presidential campaign is going to be fought on unfamiliar battlegrounds.


For years, presidential campaigns followed relatively predictable lines of trench warfare, with the outcome decided in a handful of battleground states.

But the era of the hardened electoral map — 40 of 50 states voted for the same party from 2000 to 2012 — may be coming to an end.

Interviews with more than two dozen politicians, consultants and activists throughout the country suggest that between Donald Trump’s sweep through the upper Midwest and the demographic shifts powering Democrats in the South and West, the field of competitive states stands to be dramatically reshaped in 2020.

Minnesota, which hasn’t gone for Republican for president in nearly a half-century, suddenly rates high on the GOP wish list. Arizona and Georgia, until recent years considered red-state locks, are undeniably within Democratic reach.

Democrats are engaged in shoot-the-moon speculation about Texas — the red citadel of the modern GOP — while Brad Parscale, Trump’s 2020 campaign manager, views Colorado as a target despite three consecutive Republican defeats there.


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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#2

Post by Addie » Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:08 pm

Daily Beast
Wisconsin Elections Suggest Trump Is Losing His Grip on the Rust Belt

Journalist Dan Kaufman makes a case in ‘The Fall of Wisconsin’ that Democrats are primed for a comeback.


Donald Trump won Wisconsin in 2016, but he did not surge to victory there. Whatever narrative of populist fervor you may have assigned to Trump’s election night surprise, he won Wisconsin with 6,000 fewer votes than Mitt Romney got there four years earlier. ...

Clinton underperformed Obama’s 2012 total in Wisconsin by 239,000 votes—15 percent of his total—which is how Trump was able to win there with sub-Romney numbers. And it’s only gotten worse for Trump in the nearly two years since. His 35 percent approval rating in Wisconsin is well below the national average, and two-thirds of the state’s voters say they’re ready for a new president in 2020.

In The Fall of Wisconsin, his new book about the state’s recent political history, Kaufman paints an optimistic case for Democrats to retake the state in 2020 if the party nominates a presidential candidate who generates more excitement there than Hillary Clinton did. (It’s almost certain the 2020 Democratic nominee will actually campaign in Wisconsin. Clinton did not.)

Kaufman sat down with The Daily Beast to talk about the past, present and future of Wisconsin politics.


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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#3

Post by Till Eulenspiegel » Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:07 pm

Addie wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:08 pm
Daily Beast
Wisconsin Elections Suggest Trump Is Losing His Grip on the Rust Belt

Journalist Dan Kaufman makes a case in ‘The Fall of Wisconsin’ that Democrats are primed for a comeback.

.........snip

Donald Trump won Wisconsin in 2016, but he did not surge to victory there. Whatever narrative of populist fervor you may have assigned to Trump’s election night surprise, he won Wisconsin with 6,000 fewer votes than Mitt Romney got there four years earlier. ...

Clinton underperformed Obama’s 2012 total in Wisconsin by 239,000 votes—15 percent of his total—which is how
In The Fall of Wisconsin, his new book about the state’s recent political history, Kaufman paints an optimistic case for Democrats to retake the state in 2020 if the party nominates a presidential candidate who generates more excitement there than Hillary Clinton did. (It’s almost certain the 2020 Democratic nominee will actually campaign in Wisconsin. Clinton did not.)

Kaufman sat down with The Daily Beast to talk about the past, present and future of Wisconsin politics.
hear hear !


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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#4

Post by Addie » Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:09 am

Vox - Matt Yglesias
Trump voters stood by Trump in the midterms — but there just aren’t enough of them

Back in 2016, Donald Trump got about 46 percent of the vote nationally, 2 percentage points less than Hillary Clinton. But his support was so artfully distributed that he earned the crucial electoral votes of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Two years later, his party got creamed in elections of the US House of Representatives, losing 35 to 40 seats despite a map whose geography favors the GOP even more strongly than the Electoral College does. It looks like, though, when all the votes from California are in, Republicans will have earned just about 46 percent of the vote nationally — almost exactly the same share as two years ago. ...

There were never enough Trump voters to form a majority of the electorate. And that, more than suburban backlash or anything else, is what did in Republicans on Tuesday. The Trump voters stood by Trump and voted Republican, but this time around, everyone else voted for the Democrats. And the Democrats won. ...

But the central reality of the 2016 campaign is that both major parties’ nominees were unusually unpopular. The typical scenario in 21st-century presidential campaigns has been for even the losing candidate to be viewed favorably by at least a narrow majority of the population. But 2016 gave us a unique scenario in which both nominees were underwater, leaving voters who approved of neither candidate as a crucial swing constituency. ...

Through it all, the press would stop from time to time to remark on how attuned Trump was to his base, and how perfect he was at picking various fights — with the media, with the nation of Canada, with immigrants, with the FBI’s counterintelligence division — that played to his base’s sensibilities.

This was all probably true. (Though, again, wet-noodle Romney got a higher share of the vote.) But it was also somewhat bizarre. Winning the presidency while losing the popular vote 46-48 is within the rules of the game, but it left Trump with a negative margin of error. The math was plain as day that all Democrats had to do was consolidate the people who didn’t like Trump and they’d blow the Republicans out.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#5

Post by Bill_G » Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:08 pm

The math was plain as day that all Democrats had to do was consolidate the people who didn’t like Trump and they’d blow the Republicans out.
... and come up with a viable, strong, energetic candidate that people with rally behind. We don't need Hillary II. It's time to scour the country, and groom someone for the position.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#6

Post by Suranis » Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:44 pm

Bill_G wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:08 pm
... and come up with a viable, strong, energetic candidate that people with rally behind. We don't need Hillary II. It's time to scour the country, and groom someone for the position.
There isnt a single Candidate you could muster that would not be ripped apart ny the Left and the Right. See Obama in 2007 and 2008.

You have this fantasy of this godlike superman that will sweep all before him with his cleft chin and movie star looks, but, sorry, all you have is flawed human beings to choose from. I'm sorry, and I know you don't want to undergo the pain of critisism and whatnot, but you will. No way to avoid it. Its time to accept tjat you wont have a perfect candidate and start preparing to run with one.


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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#7

Post by RVInit » Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:53 pm

No matter who the Democratic party nominee is, the Rethuglicans will manage to condense 30 years worth of demonization into 20 months or less. Count on it.


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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#8

Post by Bill_G » Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:21 am

Suranis wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:44 pm
There isnt a single Candidate you could muster that would not be ripped apart ny the Left and the Right. See Obama in 2007 and 2008.

You have this fantasy of this godlike superman that will sweep all before him with his cleft chin and movie star looks, but, sorry, all you have is flawed human beings to choose from. I'm sorry, and I know you don't want to undergo the pain of critisism and whatnot, but you will. No way to avoid it. Its time to accept tjat you wont have a perfect candidate and start preparing to run with one.
Bravo. Great job on demonstrating aggressive political tactics by falsely attributing beliefs to me without evidence, breathless spittle and all. :clap:

That is exactly what candidates go through, and the higher the office they aspire, the wider the field of attack. The right person has to possess a special mettle to do more than survive. They have to thrive in it. My suggestion is to look through current and recent Democratic governors for that special someone. That's where we found Clinton in 92.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#9

Post by Mikedunford » Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:45 am

Suranis wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:44 pm
Bill_G wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:08 pm
... and come up with a viable, strong, energetic candidate that people with rally behind. We don't need Hillary II. It's time to scour the country, and groom someone for the position.
There isnt a single Candidate you could muster that would not be ripped apart ny the Left and the Right. See Obama in 2007 and 2008.

You have this fantasy of this godlike superman that will sweep all before him with his cleft chin and movie star looks, but, sorry, all you have is flawed human beings to choose from. I'm sorry, and I know you don't want to undergo the pain of critisism and whatnot, but you will. No way to avoid it. Its time to accept tjat you wont have a perfect candidate and start preparing to run with one.
Obama got ripped apart by the left. But he was still a strong, energetic candidate that people could - and did, in massive numbers - rally behind.


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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#10

Post by Bill_G » Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:44 am

Mikedunford wrote:
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:45 am

Obama got ripped apart by the left. But he was still a strong, energetic candidate that people could - and did, in massive numbers - rally behind.
Obama was a crap magnet on a whole new level. People tried to engage me in political debate even at Radio Shack. Rallies in Portland were gigantic. True Come to Jesus events. And he freaked out Righties worse than Clinton's blue helmets and black helicopters. 2008 was an amazing year. I don't know that there is someone in the wings with that kind of draw, but we won't know without trying.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#11

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater » Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:51 am

Well could anyone say back at the start of the primaries in 2007 that they thought Obama had a shot over Edwards and Clinton. It's entirely possible in the next two years someone could emerge with the same dynamic energy he had



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#12

Post by Mikedunford » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:06 pm

Beto.

2 years ago, I would have said Warren (actually, I think I might have said it then). Not as sure about her now, but time will tell. Haven't seen enough of Kamala Harris to have a firm opinion.


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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#13

Post by Chilidog » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:36 pm

Bill_G wrote:
Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:44 am

Obama was a crap magnet on a whole new level.
Projection won't get you far, here.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#14

Post by Suranis » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:41 pm

Bill_G wrote:
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:21 am

Bravo. Great job on demonstrating aggressive political tactics by falsely attributing beliefs to me without evidence, breathless spittle and all. :clap:

That is exactly what candidates go through, and the higher the office they aspire, the wider the field of attack. The right person has to possess a special mettle to do more than survive. They have to thrive in it. My suggestion is to look through current and recent Democratic governors for that special someone. That's where we found Clinton in 92.
Actually I was responding to a lot of discussions I've seen around the net where people started puttingtogether a jigsaw of the "perfect candidate to take on Trump" which no-one could match, and which people were priming themselves to be disapointed about no matter who emerges. So I'm sorry.

YOu make good points about the personal resolve of someone willing to thake on the task.

Personally I'd like to see Eric Holder, the guy has spent time in the fire, he is very personable, and he is as tough as nails. While I like Warren I just dont see her as Presidential material. She would be a great VP I think.


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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#15

Post by Dan1100 » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:48 pm

As I've said before, the best role for Elizabeth Warren is to stand out front, take the brunt of the abuse from the right wing hate machine, and then step aside and be Secretary of the Treasury and/or Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.


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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#16

Post by RVInit » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:55 pm

Mikedunford wrote:
Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:06 pm
Beto.

2 years ago, I would have said Warren (actually, I think I might have said it then). Not as sure about her now, but time will tell. Haven't seen enough of Kamala Harris to have a firm opinion.
:like:


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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#17

Post by Addie » Sun Nov 18, 2018 10:04 am

NBC News: New election map: Ohio, Colorado no longer swing states

The results for November 6th, suggest that the battleground states of 2020 may look a bit different than they did in the 2016 campaign.



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Re: Unfamiliar Battlefields, The 2020 Map

#18

Post by Addie » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:12 am

McClatchy
‘The new swing states:’ Presidential battleground map shifts heading into 2020

Democrats and Republicans see a reshuffled map for the next presidential campaign that puts a handful of upper Midwest and Sun Belt states at the center and minimizes the role of some traditional battlegrounds.

After the Democrats’ suburban dominance and the GOP’s rural success in the 2018 elections, members of both parties say they think the Republican strongholds of Arizona and Georgia will come more into play in 2020, while the swing states of Ohio and Iowa are increasingly turning red.

And there’s general agreement that at the outset of the 2020 contest, three historically Democratic-leaning midwestern states President Donald Trump flipped in 2016 -- Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- along with the perennial battleground of Florida will be at the core of the fight.

“In a really close race, I believe Florida and the three industrial Midwest states will matter the most,” said Democratic pollster Paul Maslin, a presidential campaign veteran. “We don’t have a big margin for error here. It’s going to be extremely competitive.”



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