Polls: 2020 Already

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Addie
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#76

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Morning Call
Joe Biden early top pick for Pennsylvania Democrats, Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows

With a year to go before state primary voters weigh in on which Democrat should be the party’s presidential nominee, the current leading choice in Pennsylvania is a man well-known for his deep family roots here, according to a new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll.

Former Vice President Joe Biden was the pick of 28 percent of respondents when asked which Democrat they would select if the 2020 presidential primary was being held now.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who lost the 2016 nomination to Hillary Clinton, was second at 16 percent. Two female U.S. senators, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Kamala Harris of California, followed with 8 percent for each, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg drew support from 4 percent.

The early snapshot of Pennsylvania Democrats’ candidate preferences largely reflects what national public opinion surveys have found. An average of those polls by Real Clear Politics gives Biden — who has not officially announced a bid for president, but is expected to do so this month — an edge of 10 percentage points.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#77

Post by Hurtzi »

For Biden I trust Obama who took him twice.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#78

Post by Foggy »

The great thing about all these polls where Biden is way out front is, he still hasn't announced that he's running. Imagine if he was actually campaigning to be president. :lol:
In my defense, I was left unsupervised.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#79

Post by Addie »

FiveThirtyEight: What Happens If Biden Doesn’t Run — Or Flops?

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Poll of the week

Joe Biden seems likely to run for the Democratic presidential nomination and to be a formidable candidate if he enters. But we’ve been waiting for the former vice president to officially jump into the race for a while now, so … how will the Democratic primary look if Biden opts not to run. Or what if his candidacy implodes because of a tendency to make verbal gaffes, behavior that ranges from odd to creepy, or some other reason?

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#80

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The Hill
Poll: Sanders leads pack, followed by Biden and Buttigieg

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) leads the Democratic presidential field in a new Emerson poll, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

The survey found that Sanders, who has come in second behind Biden in most polling, is leading with 29 percent. Biden, who has not yet announced a 2020 bid, is in second place with 24 percent, followed by Buttigieg at 9 percent.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) are tied for fourth place at 8 percent, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) at 7 percent.

The poll is one of several showing the meteoric rise on Buttigieg, despite his relatively low name recognition just a few months ago. An Iowa poll last week had him in third place, behind Biden and Sanders, respectively.

“While still early in the nominating process, it looks like Mayor Pete is the candidate capturing voters’ imagination,” Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson Polling, said in a statement Monday.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#81

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The Hill
Biden leads Sanders by 8 points in national poll

Former Vice President Joe Biden is holding firm atop the Democratic presidential field, leading Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) by 8 points in a new national poll.


The Morning Consult survey finds Biden with 31 percent support, followed by Sanders at 23 percent. There has been little change from the same poll conducted last month, which found Biden with a 33 percent to 25 percent lead. ...

Sen. Kamala Harris (Calif.) is in third place with 9 percent support, followed by former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (Texas) at 8 percent. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is tied with South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 7 percent support.

Buttigieg has seen the biggest gain in the 2020 Democratic field, rising from 3 percent support in the same poll from late March. ...

But Biden and Sanders are the clear frontrunners, with two-thirds of Democratic voters viewing them favorably, according to the poll. No other candidates come close in terms of name recognition or net favorability rating. ...

Biden is the top second choice among supporters of Sanders, Harris and O’Rourke. Sanders is the top second choice among Biden’s supporters.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#82

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The Hill
Poll: Buttigieg surges into contention with Biden, Sanders

South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg has surged into the top tier of candidates in the Democratic presidential primary, according to a new poll.

The online survey from Change Research, a left-leaning polling outlet, finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 21 percent support, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 20 percent and Buttigieg at 17 percent.

That’s a 15-point gain for Buttigieg in the past month, according to the poll, while Biden has fallen by 15 points and Sanders shed 4 points in the same survey.

Still, the Change Research poll finds Buttigieg polling much higher than other surveys. He is at 9 percent in an Emerson College survey and 7 percent in a Morning Consult poll, both released this week. ...

No other candidate is polling in double-digits in the Change Research survey beyond Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#83

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This isn't an important poll, but for what any of them is worth this early:
Gravis Marketing has released its first 2020 Iowa Caucus poll and finds Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders tied atop the field with the Pete Buttigieg running 5 points behind. Behind Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg are Harris and Warren at 6%, O’Rourke at 5%, Booker and Klobuchar at 4%, Delaney at 2% and everyone else at or below 1%. While the exact numbers will vary throughout the state at various precincts, the important threshold is 15% which is the lowest possible viability threshold for a precinct caucus.

Biden and Sanders both have measurable support across all age groups, but Biden is the strongest among those over 65 while Sanders is strongest among 18-29-year-old caucus goers. Interestingly, the O’Rourke and Buttigieg don’t register any support among the 18-29 block. Sanders and Biden register in the double digits through most ideological groups. Biden leads Sanders among moderates 26%-17% and somewhat liberal Democrats 19%-13%. Sanders leads 27%-26% among somewhat conservative Democrats, 40%-27% among very conservative Democrats and 24%-9% among very liberal Democrats.

There is also a notable educational divide with Sanders leading 31%-35% among those with only a high school diploma and Biden leading 23%-15% among those with a bachelor’s degree. Among those with a post graduate degree, Buttigieg takes 22% with Biden, Sanders and Harris tied at 11%.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#84

Post by Slim Cognito »

Addie wrote:
Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:31 pm
This isn't an important poll, but for what any of them is worth this early:
Gravis Marketing has released its first 2020 Iowa Caucus poll and finds Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders tied atop the field with the Pete Buttigieg running 5 points behind. Behind Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg are Harris and Warren at 6%, O’Rourke at 5%, Booker and Klobuchar at 4%, Delaney at 2% and everyone else at or below 1%. While the exact numbers will vary throughout the state at various precincts, the important threshold is 15% which is the lowest possible viability threshold for a precinct caucus.

Biden and Sanders both have measurable support across all age groups, but Biden is the strongest among those over 65 while Sanders is strongest among 18-29-year-old caucus goers. Interestingly, the O’Rourke and Buttigieg don’t register any support among the 18-29 block. Sanders and Biden register in the double digits through most ideological groups. Biden leads Sanders among moderates 26%-17% and somewhat liberal Democrats 19%-13%. Sanders leads 27%-26% among somewhat conservative Democrats, 40%-27% among very conservative Democrats and 24%-9% among very liberal Democrats.

There is also a notable educational divide with Sanders leading 31%-35% among those with only a high school diploma and Biden leading 23%-15% among those with a bachelor’s degree. Among those with a post graduate degree, Buttigieg takes 22% with Biden, Sanders and Harris tied at 11%.
(sigh) if Biden announces this week, that's probably it. I can only hope he picks a diverse VP, Harris or Castro perhaps? I'm very fond of Warren and Booker but don't they try to include different regions. Two dems from New England might be too...something (still struggling with word finding issues). I also like Buttigieg but I was really hoping to see a female president in my lifetime.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#85

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CBS Boston
Poll: Sanders Widens Lead In NH Primary Followed By Biden, Buttigieg

DURHAM, N.H. (CBS) – Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has a commanding lead in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, according to a poll released Monday.

The University of New Hampshire survey has Sanders with 30% of the vote, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 18%. Sanders is up four points since the school’s February poll while Biden, who could make his run for president official this week, is down four. Sanders is also seen as the candidate with the best chance to win the general election.

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg is in third place with 15%. Support for the openly gay Afghanistan veteran has skyrocketed – he barely registered in the poll from two months ago with 1%.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, of Massachusetts, is in fourth place with 5% but her numbers in the neighboring state continue to decline.

About 12 percent of Democratic primary voters are undecided, the poll found.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#86

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Monmouth University Polling Institute
Dem 2020 Diversity Not a Priority

Biden stable, Bernie sags, Buttigieg surges


West Long Branch, NJ – Diversity may be the byword for the 2020 field of Democrats, but it does not appear to be a priority in choosing a challenger to Trump according to the Monmouth University Poll. Most Democratic voters say race and gender are not factors in determining who should be the party’s presidential nominee. There have been some shifts in the current beauty contest – with a noted surge by a small city mayor – but the front-runner spot has held steady as former Vice President Joe Biden reportedly is set to jump into the race this week.

Race and gender do not seem to be important factors for Democratic voters when considering who the party should choose to run against Trump. Fully 87% say the race of the nominee does not matter. Just 5% say it would be better for Democrats to nominate a person of color, which is offset by 6% who say it would actually be better for the party to nominate a white candidate. Similarly, 77% say the gender of the nominee does not matter. Just 7% say it would be better for Democrats to nominate a woman, while slightly more (12%) say it would actually be better for the party to nominate a man. ...

Among a field of 24 announced and potential contenders, Biden currently has the support of 27% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, which is similar to his 28% support in March and 29% in January. Support for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is currently at 20%, which is down slightly from 25% in March, but still higher than his 16% support in January. ...

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg currently has 8% support. He registered less than 1% in prior Monmouth polls. California Sen. Kamala Harris has 8% support, off just slightly from 10% in March and 11% in January. Rounding out the field of top contenders are Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 6% (from 8% in both March and January) and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke at 4% (6% in March and 7% in January).

Others who score at least 1% include New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (2%, from 5% in March and 4% in January), former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (2%, from 1% in prior polls), Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (1%, from 3% in March and 2% in January), and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (1%, from 1% in March). The remaining 14 names asked about in the survey receive support from less than 1% of Democratic voters at this time, which is basically unchanged from their support levels in prior national Monmouth polls.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#87

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The Hill
Poll: Buttigieg tops Harris, O'Rourke as momentum builds

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg suprassed Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) in a national poll of likely Democratic voters released Tuesday.

Buttigieg placed third, behind former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), with 9 percent of respondents picking him as their preferred Democratic presidential nominee, a two point bump from last week's Morning Consult survey.

Biden, who has yet to announce his candidacy, still holds a wide lead, with 30 percent of respondents saying he is their preferred choice and 24 percent of those surveyed picked Sanders.

Harris dropped one point to 8 percent, while O'Rourke dropped two points to 6 percent.

Buttigieg, who officially launched his campaign earlier this month, has been surging in polls of the 2020 race.

The Indiana Mayor recently placed closely behind Biden and Sanders, the current frontrunners, in polls of key early voting states Iowa and New Hampshire.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#88

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Over 20% of Sanders supporters say they’ll vote for Trump if Buttigieg or Warren win
A new Emerson Poll found that some supporters of Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary would prefer Donald Trump in the general election to some of Sanders’s primary opponents.

The poll is one of the first national polls to show Sanders pulling ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden, who has spent several weeks responding to claims that he repeatedly disrespected women’s personal space.

29% of respondents said they want Sanders to win and 24% preferred Biden. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senators Kamala Harris (CA) and Elizabeth Warren (MA), and former Representative Beto O’Rourke (TX) represented the middle of the pack, getting seven to nine percent each.

The poll also found that 21% of Sanders supporters said they would vote for Trump in the general election if Buttigieg won the primary, 26% said they would vote for Trump if Warren won the primary, 18% said they would vote for Trump if O’Rourke won the primary, and 17% said they would vote for Trump if Harris won the primary.

Oddly, 5% of Sanders supporters said they would vote for Trump if Sanders won the primary.
:confused: :?
To which Trump replied, Fuck the law. I don't give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#89

Post by Addie »

FiveThirtyEight: We Analyzed 40 Years Of Primary Polls. Even Early On, They’re Fairly Predictive.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#90

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The Hill
Poll: 55 percent say they won't vote for Trump in 2020

More than 50 percent of respondents in a new survey say they will not vote for President Trump when he seeks reelection in 2020.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll released Monday found that 55 percent of respondents said they will not vote from Trump next year, with only 39 percent approving of his work since taking office.

Of respondents who were asked if they would vote from Trump in 2020, 14 percent said they would consider it and 28 percent said they definitely would vote for him to have a second term in the White House.

Of those respondents who said they wouldn’t vote for Trump, only 29 percent said they would for sure vote for his eventual Democratic counterpart.

Nearly two-thirds instead said they would wait to see who emerges from the crowded Democratic field, which is currently made up of 20 candidates vying for the nomination.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#91

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Emerson Polling
2020 Texas: Biden and Beto in Dead Heat in Democratic Primary

A new Emerson Poll of Democratic Primary voters in Texas finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 23% and former Texas U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke at 22%. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was the only other candidate to clear double digits, polling third at 17%. Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 8% and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 7% are ahead of former HUD secretary and native Texan Julian Castro, who is at 4%. The poll was conducted April 25-28, 2019, mixed mode, of Democratic primary voters with n=342, +/- 5.3%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll, explains “it seems that Beto O’Rourke does not have Texas locked up. Bernie Sanders had trouble back in 2016 in southern states, including losing Texas by 32 points (65% to 33%) to Hillary Clinton, so it will be exciting to see who can capture the Lone Star state in next March’s key Super Tuesday contest.”

Continuing the trend found in other Emerson polls this year, voters aged 18-29 continue to break more for Sanders than any other candidate, with 34% of their vote. O’Rourke leads among those age 30-49 with 31%, and Biden leads among 50-64 year olds with 29%, and among 65+ year olds with 36%.

O’Rourke does best with Hispanic voters, receiving 32% of their support. O’Rourke and Biden lead among white voters with 22% support each. Biden also leads among black voters with 40% support.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#92

Post by Slim Cognito »

Addie wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:51 am
The Hill
Poll: 55 percent say they won't vote for Trump in 2020

More than 50 percent of respondents in a new survey say they will not vote for President Trump when he seeks reelection in 2020.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll released Monday found that 55 percent of respondents said they will not vote from Trump next year, with only 39 percent approving of his work since taking office.

Of respondents who were asked if they would vote from Trump in 2020, 14 percent said they would consider it and 28 percent said they definitely would vote for him to have a second term in the White House.

Of those respondents who said they wouldn’t vote for Trump, only 29 percent said they would for sure vote for his eventual Democratic counterpart.

Nearly two-thirds instead said they would wait to see who emerges from the crowded Democratic field, which is currently made up of 20 candidates vying for the nomination.
This makes me feel better until I remember that Russia can hack state voter rolls and eff with them, and the official statements of "yes, they were in but they didn't do anything" gets you about as far with me as "yes, I took it but I was going to pay for it next time." Then I remember the thousands of FL voters who showed up at the polls last year to be told they weren't on the rolls, the recounts and the king of medicare fraud, Rick Scott, is our new senator.

Same with DeSantis. It appears he's at least making an effort to fix our water situation. Of course, he's still trying to keep felons from voting so he can take a FFF as far as I'm concerned.

https://www.axios.com/marco-rubio-russi ... f40d5.html
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#93

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CNN
CNN Poll: Biden solidifies front-runner status with post-announcement bump

(CNN)Former Vice President Joe Biden's announcement of a bid for the Democratic presidential nomination earned him an 11-point polling bounce, leaving him head and shoulders above the rest of the Democratic candidates.

A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS after Biden's announcement on Thursday shows 39% of voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents saying he is their top choice for the nomination, up from 28% who said the same in March.

That puts Biden more than 20 points ahead of his nearest competitor, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont -- who holds 15% support in the poll -- and roughly 30 points ahead of the next strongest candidate, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (8%).

Warren ranks about evenly with South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (7%), former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke (6%) and Sen. Kamala Harris of California (5%), who round out the list of those earning 5% or more in the poll. The remaining 17 candidates tested all held the support of 2% or less. ...

When asked who in the field they'd most like to hear more about, aside from the candidate they currently support, the names which rise to the top largely match those near the top of the horserace. But the order is shuffled: Harris holds the top slot, mentioned by 23% of potential Democratic voters. Warren follows at 20%, Biden at 19%, Buttigieg at 17%, Senator Cory Booker and O'Rourke each land at 15% and 12% name Sanders.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#94

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The Hill
O'Rourke holds double-digit lead on Trump in head-to-head matchup: CNN poll

Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) leads President Trump by 10 points in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a new CNN–SSRS poll.

The survey released Thursday shows O’Rourke with support from 52 percent of registered voters, compared with Trump's 42 percent. Two percent of voters said they wouldn’t support either candidate, and 4 percent said they had no opinion.

O'Rourke held the widest lead over Trump among other Democratic presidential candidates who were included in the potential matchup.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Vice President Joe Biden tied for second place behind O'Rourke, with each leading Trump by 6 points.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) followed with a 4-point lead over Trump, while South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) led the president by 3 points.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) came in last place in the poll, trailing Trump by 1 point.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#95

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Morning Consult
Biden Continues Post-Launch Surge, Grows Lead Among Likely Democratic Voters

Former VP picked up 4 more points, part of a 10-point gain since campaign launch ...


Morning Consult’s latest 2020 tracking data measured an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous week in the share of voters who picked him as their first choice for the party’s presidential nomination. It gives the former vice president a 10-point bump in the two polls conducted since he launched his bid for the presidency last month, an upward swing unmatched by any other candidate in the race.

Four in 10 likely Democratic primary voters ranked Biden as their first choice in the primary, up from 36 percent in the prior week, cementing his early status as the front-runner amid attacks on his progressive bona fides from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

Other than a 2-point bump last week for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Biden’s the only candidate to increase his share of the vote in the past two weeks, with others stagnating or dropping. Sanders – who’s polling second with 19 percent – is down 5 points since Biden’s April 25 announcement, while South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg is down 3 points over the same time period.

Biden leads Sanders by 24 points, 44 percent to 20 percent, among likely Democratic primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — the first four states to hold nominating contests.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#96

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Yougov.com. Women rising!
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#97

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:clap:
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#98

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Delaware News Journal
Biden leads Trump 53-42 among Pennsylvania voters in Quinnipiac poll ...

The Quinnipiac University poll found a gap among men and women, with 60 percent of Pennsylvania women supporting Biden. Men, however, were more divided, with 49 percent supporting Trump, compared to 45 percent for Biden.

Trump was favored by 90 percent of Pennsylvania Republicans, while Biden was supported by 93 percent of Democratic voters and 51 percent of independent voters.

Here's how other Democratic candidates matched up against Trump in the poll:
Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont over Trump 50 - 43 percent

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 47 percent to Trump's 44 percent

Trump and Sen. Kamala Harris of California split 45 - 45 percent

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 45 percent to Trump's 44 percent

Trump at 46 percent to 44 percent for former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of Texas.
Adding:
The Hill: Poll: Biden leads Trump by double digits in Pennsylvania ...

Trump’s approval rating is deep underwater in Pennsylvania -- 54 percent of respondents disapprove of him while 42 percent support him.

White voters are evenly divided over the job Trump has done, but nonwhite voters disapprove by a margin of 74 percent to 23 percent. A slim majority of men approve of Trump's job performance while 62 percent of women disapprove.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#99

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Reuters
Biden expands lead over rivals for 2020 U.S. presidential nomination despite lack of support from millennials: Reuters/Ipsos poll

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden has expanded his lead over a wide field of candidates for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination by 5 percentage points since he entered the race in late April, according to a monthly Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The poll released on Wednesday found 29% of Democrats and independents said they would vote for Biden in the state nominating contests that begin next year. That is up from 24% who said so in a poll that ran in late April, days before Biden announced his bid.

Biden led the field among all major demographic groups except millennials (ages 18-37), who favored U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont over Biden 18% to 16%. ...

The monthly survey showed 29% of women who identify as Democrats and independents said they backed Biden, up 4 points from last month.

And among registered Democrats, those who supported other candidates still listed Biden as a top alternative if their choice dropped out of the race, according to the poll.

“That means that there is not a significant anti-Biden block of voters split between the other candidates,” said Chris Jackson, a polling expert at Ipsos.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#100

Post by Slim Cognito »

I won't be voting for Biden in the primaries, it will most likely be Harris. That said, if this holds, I expect Biden will walk away with the nom easily. If he picks Harris or Buttigeig, I think he'll win, if we can trust the election results.

I'm in Florida. Our former Senator Nelson was raked over the coals for daring to say the Russians hacked us. Then we heard he was correct, but it was only one county. Now it's confirmed to be two counties. And Rubio confirmed they were able to bumble around in the voter database but he assured us they didn't actually remove people from the rolls, although they had the capability to do so. I remember hundreds, maybe thousands, showing up to vote and being told they weren't on the registry.

Next, they'll be trying to sell us swamp land in Collier County.

In other words, I don't think Medicare Fraud King Rick Scott won fairly and I'm giving DeSantis the hairy eyeball, so I don't have a lot of faith in the 2020 elections. This seems like a good place to drop a Stalin quote...
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