Polls: 2020 Already

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#101

Post by Addie » Mon May 20, 2019 6:28 pm

Independent
2020 election poll: Joe Biden's lead shrinks to zero against Bernie Sanders in critical Iowa

Meanwhile, voters in the first 2020 caucus state say they like Elizabeth Warren the most


Joe Biden may be leading national polls among Democratic voters, but a new poll shows his dominance doesn’t necessarily extend to Iowa.

Mr Biden is matched by Bernie Sanders in the state, a sharp drop from his 11 point lead in a separate poll last month. Both candidates can claim 24 per cent support in the state, which will vote first in the nominating process next year.

Mr Biden and Mr Sanders are followed in the new poll by several candidates with significant showings, including Pete Buttigieg (14 per cent), Elizabeth Warren (12 per cent), and Kamala Harris (10 per cent).

Ms Warren stands out as the most liked candidate in the race, with a favourability rating at 78 per cent — the top in the race. She is followed by Mr Sanders, who is the next closest with 71 per cent.

“Good news for Elizabeth Warren: her favourability exceeds that of any other candidate in the race and her name recognition is near universal,” said principal pollster Jane Loria in a news release.

She continued: “In some states, we see a large spread between the front-runners and the so-called second-tier in the excitement barometer, but in Iowa the candidates are all pretty tightly clustered. When we ask respondents to identify the five candidates they’re most excited about, 54% say Warren, followed by Biden (53%), then Harris (53%), Sanders (49%), and Buttigieg (46%)

The Iowa Starting Line/Change Research Poll was released on Monday, and the Iowa caucuses will be held in January.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#102

Post by Addie » Tue May 21, 2019 10:07 am

The Hill: The Memo: Trump faces steep climb to reelection

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#103

Post by Addie » Tue May 21, 2019 3:46 pm

Talking Points Memo - Josh Marshall
Numbers from New Q Poll ...

President Trump’s numbers are 38% approve, 57% disapprove. On May 2nd those numbers were 41%-55%. 54% of voters say they would “definitely not vote” for President Trump. 31% say they’d “definitely vote” for him.

There’s also this. Joe Biden is the only presidential candidate in either party with a clear net approval. ...

Pete Buttigieg is the only other candidate with a nominal net approval. Note that last sentence though. For most of these Democrats it’s that most haven’t heard enough to make a judgement either way. So what you’re seeing here is to a significant extent confirmed GOP partisans knowing to hate them just on the basis of their party with others not having a clear opinion.

Finally, here’s the breakdown on whether people are paying attention to the race this early. Fully 74% say they’re paying some or a lot of attention, which is astounding in historical terms but not terribly surprising given what is happening in the country. ...

I’m of two minds on these numbers. The consequences of President Trump being reelected are so catastrophic that nothing can be taken for granted. We’ve seen his unconventional politics do the unthinkable and impossible before. And his particular coalition has a big, big electoral college advantage. Having said that, these are terrible numbers for a President seeking reelection.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#104

Post by Slim Cognito » Tue May 21, 2019 6:05 pm

Addie wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 3:46 pm
Talking Points Memo - Josh Marshall
Numbers from New Q Poll ...

President Trump’s numbers are 38% approve, 57% disapprove. On May 2nd those numbers were 41%-55%. 54% of voters say they would “definitely not vote” for President Trump. 31% say they’d “definitely vote” for him.

There’s also this. Joe Biden is the only presidential candidate in either party with a clear net approval. ...

Pete Buttigieg is the only other candidate with a nominal net approval. Note that last sentence though. For most of these Democrats it’s that most haven’t heard enough to make a judgement either way. So what you’re seeing here is to a significant extent confirmed GOP partisans knowing to hate them just on the basis of their party with others not having a clear opinion.

Finally, here’s the breakdown on whether people are paying attention to the race this early. Fully 74% say they’re paying some or a lot of attention, which is astounding in historical terms but not terribly surprising given what is happening in the country. ...

I’m of two minds on these numbers. The consequences of President Trump being reelected are so catastrophic that nothing can be taken for granted. We’ve seen his unconventional politics do the unthinkable and impossible before. And his particular coalition has a big, big electoral college advantage. Having said that, these are terrible numbers for a President seeking reelection.
And if he didn't have Barr in his pocket, the GOP congress in his doghouse and Putin pulling the strings, I wouldn't be so worried right now.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#105

Post by RVInit » Tue May 21, 2019 9:19 pm

Slim Cognito wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 6:05 pm
And if he didn't have Barr in his pocket, the GOP congress in his doghouse and Putin pulling the strings, I wouldn't be so worried right now.
:yeah:
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#106

Post by Addie » Wed May 22, 2019 11:51 am

The Hill
Poll: 60 percent say Trump should not be reelected

A new poll finds that a strong majority of voters believes that President Trump does not deserve a second term office.

A Monmouth University survey released Wednesday found that only 37 percent of voters believe Trump should be reelected, while 60 percent said they think it’s time to have someone new in the White House.

That’s the highest percentage of voters saying they’re eager for change since Monmouth first began asking the question in November. The numbers come weeks ahead of Trump's expected official launch for his 2020 reelection campaign.

Trump’s approval rating is at 40 percent positive and 52 percent negative. That’s at the low end of his approval ratings for the past 12 months, during which time his positive rating has been from 40 to 44 percent and his negative rating has ranged from 46 to 54 percent.

The president’s approval rating remains high among Republicans, at 86 percent positive. Thirty-seven percent of independents have a favorable view of Trump, compared to 50 percent who view him unfavorably.

The poll also found deep pessimism about the direction of the country, with 29 percent of respondents saying the U.S. is on the right track and 63 percent saying it is headed in the wrong direction.

Despite the desire to elect Trump's replacement in 2020, a majority of voters, 56 percent, say Trump should not be impeached and compelled to leave office, while 39 percent support impeachment and removal.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#107

Post by Addie » Fri May 24, 2019 5:29 pm

Monmouth University Polling Institute
Women Rise in Dem 2020 Field

Biden maintains lead, but it’s not as large among early state voters


West Long Branch, NJ – Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains his front-runner status among Democratic voters nationwide, but some female candidates – namely Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, California Sen. Kamala Harris, and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar – have seen some small but notable upticks in their favorability ratings over the past month. The latest Monmouth University Poll also finds a drop in support for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and a decline in the net rating for former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke. Overall, the poll provides yet another reminder that name recognition continues to drive party preferences at this early stage of the race, with many Democratic voters saying they remain unfamiliar with the majority of the two dozen candidates in the field. The race would actually look tighter if there was more focus on the voters who live in states with early primary contests with more influence determining the party’s nominee.

Among a field of 24 contenders, Biden currently has the support of 33% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters. This marks a small increase since he entered the race, from 27% in April and 28% in March. The rest of the field is tightly grouped below the clear front-runner position. Sanders has the support of 15% of Democratic-identifiers, which represents a decline over the past few months from 25% in March and 20% in April. Harris has 11% support, similar to 8% in April and 10% in March. Warren stands at 10%, compared to 6% in April and 8% in March.

Other candidates receiving support in the poll include South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 6% (8% in April and less than 1% in March), O’Rourke at 4% (4% in April and 6% in March), and Klobuchar at 3% (1% in April and 3% in March). Candidates who receive 1% support include New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, former cabinet secretary Julián Castro, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, entrepreneur Andrew Yang, and author Marianne Williamson – which is the first time she has hit the 1% mark in a Monmouth poll. The remaining 11 candidates included in the poll receive less than 1% or were not selected by any respondents.

“We are still nine months away from the first votes being cast. In past cycles, we used to focus mainly on the insider game of courting big donors at this stage. That ‘invisible primary’ has now morphed into a very visible pre-primary focused on national media attention at the expense of putting down firmer roots in the early voting states,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.Less than half of the Democratic voters in the poll live in one of the states that will cast ballots in the 2020 nomination process by Super Tuesday. Among these early state voters, Biden maintains his lead, but by a much slimmer margin – 26% support compared to 14% for Sanders and 14% for Harris. Warren follows at 9% with Buttigieg at 6% and Klobuchar at 5%.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#108

Post by Slim Cognito » Fri May 24, 2019 8:11 pm

Addie wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 5:29 pm
Monmouth University Polling Institute
Women Rise in Dem 2020 Field

Biden maintains lead, but it’s not as large among early state voters
...
“We are still nine months away from the first votes being cast. In past cycles, we used to focus mainly on the insider game of courting big donors at this stage. That ‘invisible primary’ has now morphed into a very visible pre-primary focused on national media attention at the expense of putting down firmer roots in the early voting states,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.Less than half of the Democratic voters in the poll live in one of the states that will cast ballots in the 2020 nomination process by Super Tuesday. Among these early state voters, Biden maintains his lead, but by a much slimmer margin – 26% support compared to 14% for Sanders and 14% for Harris. Warren follows at 9% with Buttigieg at 6% and Klobuchar at 5%.
After polling showed an easy win for Hillary Clinton in 2016, polls are now dead to me.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#109

Post by Foggy » Sun May 26, 2019 7:29 am

That's how I see it. :smoking:
I put the 'fun' in dysfunctional.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#110

Post by p0rtia » Sun May 26, 2019 10:31 am

Agreed. And yet the news media do largely nothing beyond quoting the latest poll to one other and to their guests and inviting comment.

My news watching/listening has been reduced to about ten percent of what it was for 2016. Instead I am teaching myself the chemistry of human metabolism via the youtube. Much healthier for the brain.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#111

Post by Lani » Fri Jun 07, 2019 6:49 am

DeSantis staff shakeup competing narratives
TALLAHASSEE — Gov. Ron DeSantis has lost as many as seven aides in the past 24 hours, some of whom have been with him since the start of his campaign, according to a person with direct knowledge of the turnover.

The departures, which include the scheduling director and director of external affairs, have prompted competing narratives about whether the office is in chaotic upheaval or simply experiencing a transition typical for any new governor, especially after the end of his first legislative session.

It sounds like it’s the Saturday night massacre,” said a veteran lobbyist familiar with the exodus. “There is a lot going on over there, and everyone is kind of wondering what is next.”
https://www.politico.com/states/florida ... es-1047100
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#112

Post by Dan1100 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:25 pm

Funny twitter thread about all the things that are polling better than Trump.

https://twitter.com/jcl68nyr/status/1138508308652933120

a small sample
@jcl68nyr
Replying to @ryanstruyk
Root Canal 46%, Trump 42%


DevinNunesGoat @GoatNunes
Replying to @jcl68nyr @ryanstruyk
Package of supermarket sushi left in office fridge for a week 54%, Trump 41%.


Heidi Finan @hkfinan
Replying to @jcl68nyr @ryanstruyk
Natural Childbirth of Twins 90%, Trump 10%
"Devin Nunes is having a cow over this."

-George Takei

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#113

Post by Slim Cognito » Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:38 pm

Jury duty: 72%
trump: 19%



Mother-in-law moving in: 65%
trump: 27%
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#114

Post by tek » Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:18 am

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There's no way back
from there to here

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#115

Post by NotaPerson » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:32 am

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Am I being detained?

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#116

Post by Slim Cognito » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:35 am

NotaPerson wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:32 am
New Fox News poll:

Fox.JPG


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/?
After 2016, I try not to put too much faith in polls, but is this the one trump mentioned at his rally yesterday, where he said any poll that put "Pocahontas" over him is fake? It has to be killing him these are Fox polls and I find that amusing.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#117

Post by NotaPerson » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:51 am

Slim Cognito wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:35 am
NotaPerson wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:32 am
New Fox News poll:

Fox.JPG


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/?
After 2016, I try not to put too much faith in polls, but is this the one trump mentioned at his rally yesterday, where he said any poll that put "Pocahontas" over him is fake? It has to be killing him these are Fox polls and I find that amusing.
Well, I have little faith in much of anything these days. But it's worth repeating that on the whole, the national level 2016 polls were actually quite accurate. They predicted that Clinton would get more votes by a small margin than Trump and she did. It was some of the state level polling that screwed up.

Anyway, I posted this mainly because it's a poll from the network that likes to suggest polls done by other networks are fake.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#118

Post by Addie » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:51 pm

Seattle PI
President Donald Trump trails 4 top Democrats, does not top 40% in poll

President Donald Trump trails four would-be 2020 Democratic challengers and gets no more than 40% support in trial matchups, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday.

"It (40%) is the ceiling of support for Trump no matter the candidate: It hovers near his job approval rating which has stayed in a tight range since being elected," Mary Snow, polling analyst with Quinnipiac, said in a statement.

Ex-Vice President Joe Biden has the biggest lead, 54-38% over Trump. Sen. Bernie Sanders is not far behind at 53-39%, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren up 52-40% on the president. South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg leads Trump 49-40%.

The poll found 38% of Americans approve the job being done by the 45th president, with 59% disapproving. A second poll, by USA Today and Suffolk University, pegged Trump's base of support at 39%.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#119

Post by Addie » Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:31 pm

CNN - Harry Enten
Trump trails Democrats by a historically large margin

Poll of the week: A new national Quinnipiac University poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, California Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg all lead President Donald Trump by significant margins in potential 2020 matchups.

Biden is ahead Trump by the most (16 points, 54% to 38%), while Buttigeg is up by the least (9 points, 49% to 40%).

What's the point: The Quinnipiac poll was the second probability poll that meets CNN standards and was conducted in August which found Trump down by at least 5 points against all his most likely challengers. In both the Fox News poll out earlier this month and Quinnipiac's latest, he trailed his most likely challenger, Biden, by double-digits. In fact, in an average of all the August polls (those that meet CNN standards and not), Biden was up by a 49% to 39% margin.

We're still over a year away from the 2020 general election, so don't take these polls to the bank.

Still, it's worth pointing out the historically bad position Trump is in. No incumbent president has ever polled this poorly against his likely challengers at this point in the campaign.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#120

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:00 pm

We're still over a year away from the 2020 general election, so don't take these polls to the bank.

Still, it's worth pointing out the historically bad position Trump is in. No incumbent president has ever polled this poorly against his likely challengers at this point in the campaign.
Yabbut no incumbent president has ever had the Russians helping him.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#121

Post by Addie » Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:08 pm

FiveThirtyEight
After Two Debates, Warren Is Getting More Popular

Below is the share of Democrats1 who have a favorable and unfavorable view of each candidate FiveThirtyEight considers “major,” according to an average of national polls2 taken between Aug. 1 and Aug. 25 (i.e., since the second debate). From these numbers, we’ve also calculated each candidate’s net favorability rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) among Democrats and the share of Democrats who can form an opinion of them (favorable rating plus unfavorable rating), a rough proxy for name recognition. ...

By this measure, Democrats’ favorite candidate is not polling leader and former Vice President Joe Biden: It’s Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who sports the highest net favorability rating (+54 percentage points). Indeed, according to The Economist’s 2020 primary tracker, slightly more people are considering voting for Warren than are considering Biden, even though Biden is currently the most popular first choice. He leads in most (though not all) polls.

In fairness, Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders aren’t far behind Warren, with +52 and +51 net favorability ratings, respectively. But Warren’s standing is still impressive because she is not as well-known as Biden or Sanders. While 90+ percent of Democrats have an opinion of the two men, only 83 percent offer one on Warren; in other words, a higher proportion of people who have an opinion of Warren like her. This could suggest that Warren has not yet reached her full potential and may eventually climb from third place to first in the horse-race polls.

In fourth for both net favorability and the share of Democrats with an opinion of her is Sen. Kamala Harris, who has remained in the top tier of candidates after a breakout performance in the first debate. South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg takes fifth place with a +34 net favorability rating despite relatively low name recognition, resembling Warren’s feat. Although Buttigieg’s polling surge has faded, he is still beloved among those who have gotten to know him, and he has the potential to grow, as more than a third of Democrats don’t have an opinion of him. By contrast, more Democratic voters have opinions of former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Sen. Cory Booker (which means that, yes, Cory Booker is a household name), but they each have a lower net favorability rating than Buttigieg.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#122

Post by Addie » Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:04 pm

The Hill
Warren narrows Biden's lead in new poll

Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass) support jumped up in a new poll, cutting into former Vice President Joe Biden's lead in the Democratic presidential primary.

Warren had the support of 24 percent of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters, based on an IBD/TIPP poll released Tuesday, marking a 7-point uptick for the senator since an August poll.

By contrast, Biden saw a 2 point decrease in his support, leaving it at 28 percent. He now leads Warren by just 4 points, compared to a 13 point difference in the previous poll.

Biden's lead over Warren in the IBD/TIPP survey is smaller than in some other national polls. A RealClearPolitics average of polls has Biden's support at 30.1 percent, a 12.7 point lead over Warren’s 17.4 percent.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) remains in third with the support of 12 percent of those surveyed, consistent with last month’s poll, while Sen. Kamala Harris's (D-Calif.) support dropped 5 points, from 11 percent to 6 percent.

Harris is now just slightly ahead of South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who's at 5 percent support, while Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) is at 4 percent based on the IBD/TIPP poll.

No other candidates polled higher than 1 percent.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#123

Post by Addie » Sun Sep 08, 2019 5:58 pm

Boston Globe
Biden, Warren lead Democratic presidential primary race in Mass., poll finds

A new Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of likely Massachusetts primary voters found a surging Senator Elizabeth Warren closing in on former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead as the number of undecided voters shrinks.

The poll, released Saturday, found Biden leading the field of 2020 Democratic presidential candidates with 26 percent support, followed by Warren with 24 percent, within the margin of error. Senator Bernie Sanders was in third place with 8 percent, while South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg came in fourth with 5 percent. No other Democratic candidate registered more than three percent in the poll.

Saturday’s results represent a 14-point gain for Warren since a June Suffolk/Globe poll found her with the backing of 10 percent of likely voters.

And although the 2020 Democratic presidential primary is still months away, Massachusetts Democrats are beginning to make up their minds, with 25 percent of respondents saying they are undecided, down from 42 percent in June.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#124

Post by Addie » Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:29 pm

The Hill
Biden atop new poll as Warren makes gains, Sanders and Harris slip

Former Vice President Joe Biden remains the 2020 favorite among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, according to a new poll from ABC News and The Washington Post that shows Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) gaining ground in her presidential bid and Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) losing support.

The survey found that 27 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents favor Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Sanders came in second, with 19 percent of respondents saying they favor the Vermont senator. The percentage represents a decrease of 4 points from July.

The new survey also found Warren gaining substantial ground. Seventeen percent said they'd support Warren as the Democratic presidential nominee, a 6-point increase in two months.

Meanwhile, Harris earned support from 7 percent of respondents in the latest poll, representing a 4 percent drop from July.

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg's support has remained steady at 4 percent in the poll, and former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) and businessman Andrew Yang earned support from 3 percent of respondents.

The survey indicates that much could change in the coming months as candidates vie for the nomination. Just 43 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they are committed to their candidate if he or she remains in the race. Fifty percent said they'd be willing to go in another direction.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#125

Post by Addie » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:18 am

WaPo
President Trump trails potential Democratic challengers in 2020 test

President Trump overcame formidable odds and discouraging poll numbers to win the White House in 2016. More than a year out from the 2020 election, it appears he might have to repeat that performance to win a second term, according to a Washington Post-ABC News survey.

The new poll tested Trump against five potential general election challengers, and in four of those cases, the president trails, significantly or modestly. He does worst against former vice president Joe Biden, but also runs well behind Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and slightly behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.). Against South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Trump is numerically behind but the gap is within the range of sampling error.

Among all adults, whether registered to vote or not, the president never tops 41 percent support. Among registered voters, he does better, but his highest level of support against any candidate is 44 percent. In 2016, he won 46 percent of the popular vote to Hillary Clinton’s 48 percent, but nonetheless won an electoral college majority by narrowly winning three northern states that had gone to the Democrats in the previous six elections.

Of all the Democrats tested against Trump, Biden currently does the best, aided by significant support from women. He is ahead of the president by 15 points, 55 percent to 40 percent, among registered voters. Among all adults, he is at 54 percent and Trump is at 38 percent.


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