Polls: 2020 Already

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Addie
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#101

Post by Addie » Mon May 20, 2019 6:28 pm

Independent
2020 election poll: Joe Biden's lead shrinks to zero against Bernie Sanders in critical Iowa

Meanwhile, voters in the first 2020 caucus state say they like Elizabeth Warren the most


Joe Biden may be leading national polls among Democratic voters, but a new poll shows his dominance doesn’t necessarily extend to Iowa.

Mr Biden is matched by Bernie Sanders in the state, a sharp drop from his 11 point lead in a separate poll last month. Both candidates can claim 24 per cent support in the state, which will vote first in the nominating process next year.

Mr Biden and Mr Sanders are followed in the new poll by several candidates with significant showings, including Pete Buttigieg (14 per cent), Elizabeth Warren (12 per cent), and Kamala Harris (10 per cent).

Ms Warren stands out as the most liked candidate in the race, with a favourability rating at 78 per cent — the top in the race. She is followed by Mr Sanders, who is the next closest with 71 per cent.

“Good news for Elizabeth Warren: her favourability exceeds that of any other candidate in the race and her name recognition is near universal,” said principal pollster Jane Loria in a news release.

She continued: “In some states, we see a large spread between the front-runners and the so-called second-tier in the excitement barometer, but in Iowa the candidates are all pretty tightly clustered. When we ask respondents to identify the five candidates they’re most excited about, 54% say Warren, followed by Biden (53%), then Harris (53%), Sanders (49%), and Buttigieg (46%)

The Iowa Starting Line/Change Research Poll was released on Monday, and the Iowa caucuses will be held in January.

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Addie
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#102

Post by Addie » Tue May 21, 2019 10:07 am

The Hill: The Memo: Trump faces steep climb to reelection

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Addie
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#103

Post by Addie » Tue May 21, 2019 3:46 pm

Talking Points Memo - Josh Marshall
Numbers from New Q Poll ...

President Trump’s numbers are 38% approve, 57% disapprove. On May 2nd those numbers were 41%-55%. 54% of voters say they would “definitely not vote” for President Trump. 31% say they’d “definitely vote” for him.

There’s also this. Joe Biden is the only presidential candidate in either party with a clear net approval. ...

Pete Buttigieg is the only other candidate with a nominal net approval. Note that last sentence though. For most of these Democrats it’s that most haven’t heard enough to make a judgement either way. So what you’re seeing here is to a significant extent confirmed GOP partisans knowing to hate them just on the basis of their party with others not having a clear opinion.

Finally, here’s the breakdown on whether people are paying attention to the race this early. Fully 74% say they’re paying some or a lot of attention, which is astounding in historical terms but not terribly surprising given what is happening in the country. ...

I’m of two minds on these numbers. The consequences of President Trump being reelected are so catastrophic that nothing can be taken for granted. We’ve seen his unconventional politics do the unthinkable and impossible before. And his particular coalition has a big, big electoral college advantage. Having said that, these are terrible numbers for a President seeking reelection.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#104

Post by Slim Cognito » Tue May 21, 2019 6:05 pm

Addie wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 3:46 pm
Talking Points Memo - Josh Marshall
Numbers from New Q Poll ...

President Trump’s numbers are 38% approve, 57% disapprove. On May 2nd those numbers were 41%-55%. 54% of voters say they would “definitely not vote” for President Trump. 31% say they’d “definitely vote” for him.

There’s also this. Joe Biden is the only presidential candidate in either party with a clear net approval. ...

Pete Buttigieg is the only other candidate with a nominal net approval. Note that last sentence though. For most of these Democrats it’s that most haven’t heard enough to make a judgement either way. So what you’re seeing here is to a significant extent confirmed GOP partisans knowing to hate them just on the basis of their party with others not having a clear opinion.

Finally, here’s the breakdown on whether people are paying attention to the race this early. Fully 74% say they’re paying some or a lot of attention, which is astounding in historical terms but not terribly surprising given what is happening in the country. ...

I’m of two minds on these numbers. The consequences of President Trump being reelected are so catastrophic that nothing can be taken for granted. We’ve seen his unconventional politics do the unthinkable and impossible before. And his particular coalition has a big, big electoral college advantage. Having said that, these are terrible numbers for a President seeking reelection.
And if he didn't have Barr in his pocket, the GOP congress in his doghouse and Putin pulling the strings, I wouldn't be so worried right now.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#105

Post by RVInit » Tue May 21, 2019 9:19 pm

Slim Cognito wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 6:05 pm
And if he didn't have Barr in his pocket, the GOP congress in his doghouse and Putin pulling the strings, I wouldn't be so worried right now.
:yeah:
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--- George W Bush

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Addie
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#106

Post by Addie » Wed May 22, 2019 11:51 am

The Hill
Poll: 60 percent say Trump should not be reelected

A new poll finds that a strong majority of voters believes that President Trump does not deserve a second term office.

A Monmouth University survey released Wednesday found that only 37 percent of voters believe Trump should be reelected, while 60 percent said they think it’s time to have someone new in the White House.

That’s the highest percentage of voters saying they’re eager for change since Monmouth first began asking the question in November. The numbers come weeks ahead of Trump's expected official launch for his 2020 reelection campaign.

Trump’s approval rating is at 40 percent positive and 52 percent negative. That’s at the low end of his approval ratings for the past 12 months, during which time his positive rating has been from 40 to 44 percent and his negative rating has ranged from 46 to 54 percent.

The president’s approval rating remains high among Republicans, at 86 percent positive. Thirty-seven percent of independents have a favorable view of Trump, compared to 50 percent who view him unfavorably.

The poll also found deep pessimism about the direction of the country, with 29 percent of respondents saying the U.S. is on the right track and 63 percent saying it is headed in the wrong direction.

Despite the desire to elect Trump's replacement in 2020, a majority of voters, 56 percent, say Trump should not be impeached and compelled to leave office, while 39 percent support impeachment and removal.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#107

Post by Addie » Fri May 24, 2019 5:29 pm

Monmouth University Polling Institute
Women Rise in Dem 2020 Field

Biden maintains lead, but it’s not as large among early state voters


West Long Branch, NJ – Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains his front-runner status among Democratic voters nationwide, but some female candidates – namely Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, California Sen. Kamala Harris, and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar – have seen some small but notable upticks in their favorability ratings over the past month. The latest Monmouth University Poll also finds a drop in support for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and a decline in the net rating for former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke. Overall, the poll provides yet another reminder that name recognition continues to drive party preferences at this early stage of the race, with many Democratic voters saying they remain unfamiliar with the majority of the two dozen candidates in the field. The race would actually look tighter if there was more focus on the voters who live in states with early primary contests with more influence determining the party’s nominee.

Among a field of 24 contenders, Biden currently has the support of 33% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters. This marks a small increase since he entered the race, from 27% in April and 28% in March. The rest of the field is tightly grouped below the clear front-runner position. Sanders has the support of 15% of Democratic-identifiers, which represents a decline over the past few months from 25% in March and 20% in April. Harris has 11% support, similar to 8% in April and 10% in March. Warren stands at 10%, compared to 6% in April and 8% in March.

Other candidates receiving support in the poll include South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 6% (8% in April and less than 1% in March), O’Rourke at 4% (4% in April and 6% in March), and Klobuchar at 3% (1% in April and 3% in March). Candidates who receive 1% support include New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, former cabinet secretary Julián Castro, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, entrepreneur Andrew Yang, and author Marianne Williamson – which is the first time she has hit the 1% mark in a Monmouth poll. The remaining 11 candidates included in the poll receive less than 1% or were not selected by any respondents.

“We are still nine months away from the first votes being cast. In past cycles, we used to focus mainly on the insider game of courting big donors at this stage. That ‘invisible primary’ has now morphed into a very visible pre-primary focused on national media attention at the expense of putting down firmer roots in the early voting states,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.Less than half of the Democratic voters in the poll live in one of the states that will cast ballots in the 2020 nomination process by Super Tuesday. Among these early state voters, Biden maintains his lead, but by a much slimmer margin – 26% support compared to 14% for Sanders and 14% for Harris. Warren follows at 9% with Buttigieg at 6% and Klobuchar at 5%.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#108

Post by Slim Cognito » Fri May 24, 2019 8:11 pm

Addie wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 5:29 pm
Monmouth University Polling Institute
Women Rise in Dem 2020 Field

Biden maintains lead, but it’s not as large among early state voters
...
“We are still nine months away from the first votes being cast. In past cycles, we used to focus mainly on the insider game of courting big donors at this stage. That ‘invisible primary’ has now morphed into a very visible pre-primary focused on national media attention at the expense of putting down firmer roots in the early voting states,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.Less than half of the Democratic voters in the poll live in one of the states that will cast ballots in the 2020 nomination process by Super Tuesday. Among these early state voters, Biden maintains his lead, but by a much slimmer margin – 26% support compared to 14% for Sanders and 14% for Harris. Warren follows at 9% with Buttigieg at 6% and Klobuchar at 5%.
After polling showed an easy win for Hillary Clinton in 2016, polls are now dead to me.
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#109

Post by Foggy » Sun May 26, 2019 7:29 am

That's how I see it. :smoking:

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#110

Post by p0rtia » Sun May 26, 2019 10:31 am

Agreed. And yet the news media do largely nothing beyond quoting the latest poll to one other and to their guests and inviting comment.

My news watching/listening has been reduced to about ten percent of what it was for 2016. Instead I am teaching myself the chemistry of human metabolism via the youtube. Much healthier for the brain.

:geezerette:
No matter where you go, there you are! :towel:
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#111

Post by Lani » Fri Jun 07, 2019 6:49 am

DeSantis staff shakeup competing narratives
TALLAHASSEE — Gov. Ron DeSantis has lost as many as seven aides in the past 24 hours, some of whom have been with him since the start of his campaign, according to a person with direct knowledge of the turnover.

The departures, which include the scheduling director and director of external affairs, have prompted competing narratives about whether the office is in chaotic upheaval or simply experiencing a transition typical for any new governor, especially after the end of his first legislative session.

It sounds like it’s the Saturday night massacre,” said a veteran lobbyist familiar with the exodus. “There is a lot going on over there, and everyone is kind of wondering what is next.”
https://www.politico.com/states/florida ... es-1047100
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#112

Post by Dan1100 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:25 pm

Funny twitter thread about all the things that are polling better than Trump.

https://twitter.com/jcl68nyr/status/1138508308652933120

a small sample
@jcl68nyr
Replying to @ryanstruyk
Root Canal 46%, Trump 42%


DevinNunesGoat @GoatNunes
Replying to @jcl68nyr @ryanstruyk
Package of supermarket sushi left in office fridge for a week 54%, Trump 41%.


Heidi Finan @hkfinan
Replying to @jcl68nyr @ryanstruyk
Natural Childbirth of Twins 90%, Trump 10%
"Devin Nunes is having a cow over this."

-George Takei

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Slim Cognito
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

#113

Post by Slim Cognito » Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:38 pm

Jury duty: 72%
trump: 19%



Mother-in-law moving in: 65%
trump: 27%
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