Polls: 2020 Already

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Addie
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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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Capitol Weekly
Warren takes California lead in new CA120 tracking poll

The latest monthly tracking poll for California’s March 2020 Democratic primary election shows Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren increasing her share of the vote, for the first time pushing former Vice President Joe Biden down to third place among likely voters. ...

This survey again shows there are a set of leading candidates, including Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and California Sen. Kamala Harris earning double-digit support, followed by a pack of 10 or more in single or sub-single digits.

Beyond the horse race, we find additional signs of strength for Warren, Sanders, Harris and Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, in follow-up questions about second choices, who voters would like to learn more about and who they would support if “electability” were not a concern.

Adding:
The Hill: Warren leads primary field by 8 points in California poll

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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Morning Consult
Warren Pulls Ahead of Sanders for No. 2 Spot Among Democratic Primary Voters

Massachusetts senator trails Biden by 12 points, 32% to 20%


For the first time since Morning Consult began tracking the 2020 Democratic presidential primary in late January, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has overtaken Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) for second place.

Twenty percent of Democratic primary voters said Warren was their first choice for the presidential nomination, up 4 percentage points since a survey conducted before the party’s third debate in Houston on Sept. 12

The uptick marks a continuation of her rise since the spring, while support for Sanders and the race’s front-runner, former Vice President Joe Biden, has stagnated or fallen. Warren has picked up 13 points of first-choice support since mid-April, compared with a 2-point bump for Biden and a 5-point dip for Sanders. ...

Biden largely owes his front-runner status to his standing with black voters, and he holds a significant edge over Warren with the key Democratic constituency.

Forty percent of black Democratic primary voters identify Biden as their first choice, compared to 11 percent who are backing Warren. Despite that sizable edge, there is cause for optimism in the Warren camp: 29 percent of those voters have yet to form an opinion of the senator.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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New York Mag - Ed Kilgore
A Fresh Batch of Polls Has Good News for Tulsi, Bad News for Bernie ...

The most immediate news in this mini-harvest of public opinion is that the Monmouth poll qualified a 12th candidate for the October Democratic debates in Ohio by taking 2 percent, Tulsi Gabbard now has met the four-poll 2 percent threshold. This development all but eliminates any doubts that this round of debates will again be a two-day affair, after the brief bliss of ten candidates fitting on the same stage in Houston earlier this month.

The same poll, though, continues a string of bad results for Bernie Sanders in terms of his standing in early states vis-à-vis his progressive rival Elizabeth Warren. Monmouth has Warren now edging Joe Biden in the Granite State by a 27-25 margin — but with Sanders down to 12 percent, just ahead of Pete Buttigieg with 10 percent. This is extremely similar to what Selzer found in Iowa (Warren 22 percent, Biden 20 percent, Sanders 11 percent, Buttigieg 9 percent). That makes any suspicion (based on an national poll in August showing Warren in a three-way tie with Biden and Sanders) that Monmouth is somehow putting a thumb on the scales for Warren a non-starter. The USA Today/Suffolk poll of Nevada shows Biden still in the lead with 23 percent, but Sanders at 14 percent is trailing Warren’s 19 percent by a significant margin. Indeed, as Nate Silver pointed out (a bit too avidly, you might say, but accurately), poor early state poll numbers for Sanders are becoming too routine for comfort ...

Like his fellow late-septuagenarian Joe Biden, Sanders is doing quite a bit better in national polls. The latest RealClearPolitics averages have Biden at 30 percent, Warren at 20 percent, and Sanders at 17 percent, with Buttigieg way back at 6 percent. But the trends aren’t great for Bernie. For months one of his bulwarks was the vast Morning Consult tracking poll. He’s now fallen behind Warren there, too.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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So Trump may have to ask the Ukrainian President tomorrow to make up some dirt on Senator Warren.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:14 pm
So Trump may have to ask the Ukrainian President tomorrow to make up some dirt on Senator Warren.
That one has already made it into a 'toon.

http://thefogbow.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p1116390

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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Quinnipiac Polling Institute
Warren Continues To Climb While Biden Slips - Quinnipiac University National Poll

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is essentially tied with former Vice President Joe Biden in today's Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll. Warren gets 27 percent of the vote while Biden gets 25 percent of Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic. Though well within the margin of error, this is the first time that a candidate other than Biden has had the numerical lead in the primary since Quinnipiac began asking the question in March.

The top two candidates are followed by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with 16 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 7 percent, and California Senator Kamala Harris at 3 percent. While this is Harris' lowest number yet, support for these candidates as well as the rest of the field has remained relatively stable since the last national poll in August. No other candidate tops 2 percent.

In the August national poll, Biden received 32 percent, Warren had 19 percent, Sanders got 15 percent, Harris had 7 percent, and Buttigieg got 5 percent.

While Warren picks up support across the board, she receives one of her largest gains among white voters with a college degree. These voters were split in August, with 29 percent supporting Biden and 25 percent supporting Warren, and today they support Warren over Biden 37 - 20 percent. ...

Warren is generating the most excitement among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters, who said 70 - 18 percent that they would be excited if she became the 2020 Democratic nominee. Biden and Sanders would also excite a majority of these voters, who say 56 - 35 percent that they would be excited about Biden and 55 - 38 percent that they would be excited about Sanders.

Half, or 50 percent, of Democratic and Democratic leaning voters want to see the Democratic nominee support policies that would result in major changes but would be more difficult to pass into law, while 42 percent want to see the Democratic nominee support policies that would result in minor changes but would be easier to pass into law. Moreover, 49 percent of these voters think the best way to handle health care is to replace the current private health insurance system with a Medicare for All system, compared to 44 percent who say keeping the current private health insurance system and building on Obamacare is the best way to handle health care. Democratic and Democratic leaning voters also say 55 - 29 percent that they would trust a government health insurance program more than a private health insurance company when it comes to their health care.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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Vanity Fair
Is Warren becoming a stronger 2020 candidate than Biden?

Biden’s polling lead in early states is slipping—just as Warren surges. Says one Florida-based pollster, “Biden has a challenger now.”


Elsewhere in America, far from Washington, D.C., Joe Biden is fielding a set of problems unrelated to the fact that his son Hunter is being dragged into the flaming carousel of Donald Trump’s impeachment inquiry. Namely that, according to several recent polls, Biden’s famed lead among 2020 Democrats has begun to fall in early states—not enough to truly threaten his position against his rivals and the sitting president, but enough to raise concerns over whether his front-runner status is truly assured.

The biggest cause of this, several pollsters and strategists told Politico, has been the rise of Elizabeth Warren in the voters’ consciousness. “Biden has a challenger now. He didn’t have one before,” said Ryan Tyson, a Florida-based pollster who released polls in three early states showing Biden in trouble. Since the last poll conducted in May, Biden is down 15 points in Florida, 18 in South Carolina, and 18 in New Hampshire. In fact, Warren now leads him in the Granite State by three points.

A Des Moines-Register/CNN poll in Iowa released on Saturday saw Warren pull ahead of Biden significantly for the first time; she’s now beating him 22% to 20%. And most importantly, according to pollster J. Ann Selzer, 32% of voters there say they’re “extremely enthusiastic” about caucusing for Warren, while only 22% say the same about Biden. “Biden’s favorability dropped, his unfavorable numbers doubled,” she noted. “In the absence of any context, it’s not bad. But Elizabeth Warren’s numbers are strikingly good.”

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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News & Record
HPU Poll: Biden, Sanders and Warren rank 1-2-3 among N.C. Democrats ...

A High Point University Poll published Monday found that 31 percent of self-identified Democrats would support Biden if a primary election were held today. Twenty percent would vote for Sanders, and 15 percent would back Warren.

Nine percent of Democrats are undecided, which polled higher than Sen. Kamala Harris (6 percent), Sen. Cory Booker (4 percent) and the rest of the crowded field.

Biden also had the highest favorability rating among Democrats, according to the HPU Poll, with a 70 percent score. Sanders (61 percent favorable), Warren (53 percent) and Harris (46 percent) trailed.

But Democrats appear to be still making up their minds about who they might support. Only 41 percent said they had given "a lot" of thought to the Democratic candidates while 36 percent said they had paid "some" attention to the race.

The HPU Poll results differ a bit from national polling. The Real Clear Politics website, which averages the Democratic presidential nomination polling from across the country, found that Biden also leads national surveys with support from about 28 percent of Democrats. But Warren is running second nationally with support from about 21 percent of Democrats, followed by Sanders at 17.5 percent.

North Carolina's primary elections will be held March 3, about two months earlier than usual. That's the date of the so-called Super Tuesday primary, and North Carolina will be one of 15 states to hold elections on that date.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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The Hill
Warren Leads Biden By 4% in New National Poll

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) leads the Democratic primary field by 4 points in the latest Economist/YouGov weekly tracking survey, leapfrogging former Vice President Joe Biden as she continues to enjoy a boost in the polls.

Twenty-six percent of respondents who say they will vote in their Democratic presidential primary or caucus said Warren is their first choice, a 1-point bump from last week’s survey, while 22 percent said the same for Biden, down from 25 percent last week.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was the only other candidate to register double digit support, at 14 percent, while South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) rounded out the top five at 7 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

Warren topped the poll in part by chewing into key demographics for Biden and Sanders. The Massachusetts lawmaker cut her deficit on Biden to 2 points among voters aged 65 years and older and is only behind Sanders by 3 points among voters aged 18-29. She also leads among white voters with 31 percent support, compared to 18 percent for Biden and 13 percent for Sanders.

Warren also edges out Biden by 5 points among self-identified Democrats, 28 percent to 23 percent, though the poll shows a stiff competition for independents, with both Warren and Biden coming in at 20 percent and Sanders getting 18 percent among such voters.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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Cleveland.com
Ohio poll shows Donald Trump behind Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in possible 2020 matchups

CLEVELAND, Ohio – A new poll from Emerson College shows potentially troubling signs for Republican President Donald Trump in Ohio.

Trump, who won the state by 8 percentage points in 2016, has a net negative job approval rating. Three of the top Democratic candidates narrowly beat him in a theoretical head-to-head matchup, although the results are within the margin of error. And a plurality of respondents to the poll said they supported impeaching the president. ...

Fifty-one percent of the surveyed voters said they disapproved of Trump’s job performance. Only 42.6% said they approved.

As in other surveys, Trump’s poor job performance numbers were driven by women and minority voters, though white and male voters also held a net-negative approval rating of the president. ...

Of those polled by Emerson, 42.7% said they supported impeaching the president while 39.3% said they opposed. ...

Sanders topped Trump 53.1% to 46.9%. Biden bested Trump 52.6% to 47.4%. And Warren narrowly won 51.6% to 48.4%.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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Political Wire
Trump Trails Generic Democrat Nationally by 11 Points

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that President Trump has a 40% to 55% approval spread and trails a generic Democratic opponent 52% to 41% for reelection.

“These numbers are about as bad as we’ve ever found for him, and indicate there’s no backlash coming from the movement of House Democrats toward impeachment in the last week.”

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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The Hill
Warren opens up 7-point lead over Biden nationally: poll

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has opened up a 7-point lead in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday.

Twenty-eight percent of Democrats and independent voters who lean Democratic say they intend to support Warren, while 21 percent say they will back former Vice President Joe Biden and 15 percent say they’ll support Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg is the only other candidate to break double digits, coming in at 10 percent.

While Warren's support slipped 2 percentage points since earlier this month, Biden fell 6 points and Sanders added 4 points from the last poll.

"Former Vice President Joe Biden slips, Senator Elizabeth Warren steadies, Senator Bernie Sanders gets his groove back, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg breaks back into double digits," said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Mary Snow.

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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Pew Research: A Field Guide to Polling: Election 2020 Edition

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Re: Polls: 2020 Already

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Exclusive poll: Black Americans motivated by Trump to vote in 2020
A majority of black Americans are more interested in voting in the 2020 presidential election than they were in 2016, according to a national survey of 1200 black voters and non-voters conducted by Third Way and the Joint Center.
:snippity:
Black Americans' increased motivation to vote next year stems from an intense opposition to President Trump and a belief that he "has been a disaster for our country, and we need to do everything we can to vote him out," according to the survey.
:snippity:
Methodology: Third Way and the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies partnered with GBAO Strategies to conduct a survey of 1,200 Black Americans from November 14-19, 2019 via landline, cell phones, and online. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%. This survey also included an oversample of 493 Black Americans in battleground states of Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
https://www.axios.com/black-voters-moti ... 66064.html
Am I being detained?

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