Search found 965 matches

by Danraft
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:54 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

Here's a great summary site. Go-to "Summary" Select US. There are Tabs for Demographics (running off too little data, but perhaps generally correct) , Fatality rate (straight Numerator and Denominator ratio, wherein both numbers are questionable--especially the denominator), and Fatalities. There's ...
by Danraft
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:57 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

South Korea did even more than testing. They used mobile technology in the form of apps on smart phones to not only communicate, but track the location and movement of people that tested positive and provide guidance based on that. Halting the testing for the presence of Covid-19 was halted because ...
by Danraft
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: The Lounge
Topic: Virtual Drunk Tank
Replies: 394
Views: 50209

Re: Virtual Drunk Tank

ARDS is the primary cause of ICU death in influenza virus infections. Here's a good article touching on what that means in a pandemic (treatments of the host response independent of cause) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4457136/ It's a preliminary study in mice, but you can follow the ...
by Danraft
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: The Lounge
Topic: Virtual Drunk Tank
Replies: 394
Views: 50209

Re: Virtual Drunk Tank

This is a time we wish we had more of the next-gen ventilators.
Current ones basically act in place of the diaphram-- move air.

The next-gen improvement is to do the role of the lungs, oxygenate the blood.
Glad you weren't in too much pain.
by Danraft
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

Regarding "smoking" and other variables. Yes, there are many variables and some have stronger effects than others. Science is usually about incremental improvements of the modeling-- to be better and more predictive than the previous model. It's clear that smoking is a variable to be considered, but...
by Danraft
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

Cuomo made his remarks at a lengthy press conference where he announced that the state is receiving 10,000 doses of the drug combination hydroxychloroquine and Zithromax from FDA, which will be used in a clinical trial. Earlier in the week, Cuomo said he would call for New York to be “first in line...
by Danraft
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

. What is added by this report? This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 ...
by Danraft
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:53 am
Forum: The Lounge
Topic: Virtual Drunk Tank
Replies: 394
Views: 50209

Re: Virtual Drunk Tank

Wtf?
This is not the Black Death.
If this were the correct response to "mild symptoms that could cause death in the very weak", then we would do this every year.
Breathe...
by Danraft
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:17 am
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

And, hey, it occurs to me that some peeps may feed the need to "do something". Trying to make this topic more accessible to the intelligent layman means I have to read each article, extract evidentiary statements (quotes of important parts), and categorize in a hierarchy and tag with keywords. In ad...
by Danraft
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:30 am
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

Mike, The problem with forum thread discussions is that everything is " somewhere upthread" on one of the interrelated many threads, so anything placed in this goulash vanishes. As I said, I am putting together a sortable knowledge base of related scientific articles. In this upthread-goulash mix, n...
by Danraft
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:51 am
Forum: Miscellaneous
Topic: Larry Klayman
Replies: 4009
Views: 287229

Re: Larry Klayman

There isn't any evidence of a manipulated genome. https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/theory-that-coronavirus-escaped-from-a-lab-lacks-evidence-67229 The pathogen appears to have come from wild animals, virologists say, and there are no signs of genetic manipulation in the SARS-CoV-2 genome. ...
by Danraft
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

Danraft can you share with us your reasons for this rather rosy predictions? “Rosy Predictions”? I don’t see those as rosy at all. What I see is an atrocious situation where global standards for pandemic preparedness have been dutifully discussed and seriously researched— then treated as if this “h...
by Danraft
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

FRP, agreed. All valid points that I strongly agree with. But, not now. We need numbers. The testing being done will give insights. There are numbers from treatments coming back in Italy and Korea. Sadly, although it is the correct action, it has costs. However. FFS, flattening the curve isnt two we...
by Danraft
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:25 am
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

I don't k ow how to "unroll" a Twitter thread,. But this one is great.


https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status ... 65472?s=19
by Danraft
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

Found this interesting... https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763423# Presidential Powers and Response to COVID-19 The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) modeling suggests that, without mitigation, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus t...
by Danraft
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: On a Personal Level--Coronavirus COVID-19 Cancellations, etc.
Replies: 1364
Views: 40300

Re: On a Personal Level--Coronavirus COVID-19 Cancellations, etc.

I understand it can seem I am speaking against flattening the curve. I did say that we are doing the right thing flattening the curve--for now. We need data. What is the ICU demand? This is the key variable (or sum of many variables) as it determines what options we have. Actually, for a child with ...
by Danraft
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: On a Personal Level--Coronavirus COVID-19 Cancellations, etc.
Replies: 1364
Views: 40300

Re: On a Personal Level--Coronavirus COVID-19 Cancellations, etc.

I ordered Amazon Pantry a week and a half ago. Now it says Monday. Apply that to an international scale... How long until lack of shipping puts populations, entire nation's at risk? The end outcome is famine and war Titrating the flow of patients to ICU(using lockdown), for what is (in the majority ...
by Danraft
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: On a Personal Level--Coronavirus COVID-19 Cancellations, etc.
Replies: 1364
Views: 40300

Re: On a Personal Level--Coronavirus COVID-19 Cancellations, etc.

AndyinPA wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:57 am
Unfortunately, it's not going to end in two weeks. I can't guess, but I'd say it's in months, not weeks.
From the flatten the curve diagrams the mitigation and suppression tools would be over 4 months.
by Danraft
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: On a Personal Level--Coronavirus COVID-19 Cancellations, etc.
Replies: 1364
Views: 40300

Re: On a Personal Level--Coronavirus COVID-19 Cancellations, etc.

Hmmm... Questions that will have to be asked and answered at some point... Will all the mandatory bans on gatherings and even curfews be enforced on the growing segment of society that has been exposed, infected, and recovered? Everyone acts like the goal is to not get infected. No. The goal is to n...
by Danraft
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:53 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

The discussions are certainly interesting. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that...
by Danraft
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:08 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

Agreed. But that's not what I suggested. Stratify (classify and separate) risk groups. If the healthcare system isn't overloaded, and there are sufficient ventilators etc, the mortality rate is low for those that go into ICU. But, more importantly, those people at high risk (like yourself) have the ...
by Danraft
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

Meh. Not captured is what is regular flu infections which is 57 MILLION. Probably includes some COVID-19. . By some indicators, this flu season is worse than last flu season. For example, the data shows the cumulative hospitalization rate for the flu so far this season is 57.9 per 100,000 people, co...
by Danraft
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

So, here's my COVID-19 concept. Stratify the risk groups and expose low risk to the virus while the high risk are sheltered in place. Burn it out. First, create a group of infected-and-recovered front line health providers and first responders a small segment(perhaps 25% at a time). Infection to rec...
by Danraft
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

If everyone quarantined and spread stopped, why wouldn't it just break out again when contact increased? It seems the requirement is that this highly infectious virus burns out globally? How likely is that? And, given every good and bad actor has viral reserves of it, seems likely it would reappear ...
by Danraft
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5029
Views: 134354

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

It's certain that community spread is occurring.
What reports have we seen on ICU demand?

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