Search found 6241 matches

by Slarti the White
Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:44 am
Forum: Elections 2020
Topic: Polls: 2020 Already
Replies: 291
Views: 28606

Re: Polls: 2020 Already

In a nutshell, I think the problem is with the sampling methodology. The data analysis is incredibly sophisticated, but the raw data being analyzed clearly isn't representative. Trying to model out inaccuracies only works so far, and it seems that we've reached the limits of this area of data manip...
by Slarti the White
Wed Nov 11, 2020 1:15 am
Forum: Elections 2020
Topic: Polls: 2020 Already
Replies: 291
Views: 28606

Re: Polls: 2020 Already

Kate, Short answer: I don't believe that they can. I agree with you that Trump supporters lying to pollsters is something that must be considered. [On the PEC thread I linked I said as much in a comment (under the name "David Angell") and got scolded by Sam...] The problem of weighting for...
by Slarti the White
Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:18 am
Forum: Elections 2020
Topic: Polls: 2020 Already
Replies: 291
Views: 28606

Re: Polls: 2020 Already

Dan,

While I would disagree that the point you are making is "simple", I very much agree with it. I think a big part of the problem with the way we do polling now is that we are trying to predict the size of the orange harvest by counting apples...

:towel:
by Slarti the White
Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:57 pm
Forum: Elections 2020
Topic: Polls: 2020 Already
Replies: 291
Views: 28606

Re: Polls: 2020 Already

A couple of days before the election, Frank Luntz suggested that if the polls were off again this year that the political polling industry was done. Well, I think the industry has some 'splaining to do and, quite frankly, I don't believe that there are any answers they could give that will restore p...
by Slarti the White
Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Presidential Election
Topic: Election Bunk Debunked
Replies: 169
Views: 4949

Re: Election Bunk Debunked

Chancery, Yeah, the link I posted said pretty much the same thing (in a much drier and more mathy way...). In short, Benford's law is a real thing, but these claims of fraud aren't real analyses, they are just a bunch of motivated reasoning and statistics. And we all know what Mark Twain said about ...
by Slarti the White
Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:12 pm
Forum: Presidential Election
Topic: Election Bunk Debunked
Replies: 169
Views: 4949

Re: Election Bunk Debunked

Our member Slarti understands the math (Ph.D. from Duke in math) and he's usually on our Tuesday night Fogbow Virtual Meetups on Zoom. So I'll ask him to check in on this Benford's Law stuff, chancery. He doesn't hang out here all the time, but when he has a math challenge he usually is glad to hel...
by Slarti the White
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Coronavirus
Topic: New Diseases - Coronavirus
Replies: 5425
Views: 214444

Re: New Diseases - Coronavirus

Where is Slarti? He could tell us what he thinks is the way to go. From the little I've read, and with no education in biology past a first year biology course during my pre-med year at UCLA, it seems that the ACE2 receptor on human cells is where the virus is latching on. A drug that interferes wi...
by Slarti the White
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: The Lounge
Topic: A Great Big Thank You
Replies: 10
Views: 1819

Re: A Great Big Thank You

JT, Life has prevented me from playing over the last few years — I had to do what I had to do — but I intend to play the pick-ems and Fogbow Fantasy Football again next season. You have always had my sincere thanks for running all of these games, but it never hurts to say it again: THANKS JT8! :happ...
by Slarti the White
Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:21 am
Forum: The Lounge
Topic: The Happy Things Thread
Replies: 341
Views: 33589

Re: The Happy Things Thread

Me. I've been experiencing absolute happiness for a couple of months now. Which is pretty froody. This will be my last post on the Fogbow as Slarti. Love you all! :grouphug: :happydance: :vacuum: :bunny: :happyfamily: :gotalink: :hijacked: :machinegun: :flame: :50caliber: :nooo: :ymca: :duel: :thor:...
by Slarti the White
Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Computers & Internet
Topic: Diophantine Equation Solved for Last Holdout Between 0 and 100 - 42
Replies: 29
Views: 5865

Re: Diophantine Equation Solved for Last Holdout Between 0 and 100 - 42

I am curious how the mathematicians proved that there were no solutions to the Diophantine Equation for k = 32. I haven't followed up, and I assume that I wouldn't understand it anyway. It almost certainly involves the phrase "elliptic equation" early on which I take as a "no way son...
by Slarti the White
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Computers & Internet
Topic: Diophantine Equation Solved for Last Holdout Between 0 and 100 - 42
Replies: 29
Views: 5865

Re: Diophantine Equation Solved for Last Holdout Between 0 and 100 - 42

I am curious how the mathematicians proved that there were no solutions to the Diophantine Equation for k = 32. I haven't followed up, and I assume that I wouldn't understand it anyway. Number theory proofs, especially complex ones, tend to be a bit... abstruse. Generally speaking, you are going to...
by Slarti the White
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Computers & Internet
Topic: Diophantine Equation Solved for Last Holdout Between 0 and 100 - 42
Replies: 29
Views: 5865

Re: Diophantine Equation Solved for Last Holdout Between 0 and 100 - 42

Is the result exact or is there rounding? I think it has to be exact because they're all integers. Number theory is all about integers, so, like Roadie says, it is exact, but, more properly, it answer to the question, so to speak, is a proof. Either an example (as in the case of 42) or there is rea...
by Slarti the White
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Computers & Internet
Topic: Diophantine Equation Solved for Last Holdout Between 0 and 100 - 42
Replies: 29
Views: 5865

Re: Diophantine Equation Solved for Last Holdout Between 0 and 100 - 42

As Suranis brought up Douglas Adams… I heard a sort of radio soirée with Adams chatting about HHGG (obviously an old program because Adams died young about twenty years ago). He said he chose 42 as just a dull number. Likewise, he chose the name Arthur Dent as a sort of Everyman name. But some year...
by Slarti the White
Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Computers & Internet
Topic: Diophantine Equation Solved for Last Holdout Between 0 and 100 - 42
Replies: 29
Views: 5865

Re: Diophantine Equation Solved for Last Holdout Between 0 and 100 - 42

I actually used to have the DVDs of the TV show. Never watched them -- someone broke into my apartment and stole all of my DVDs and a big bag of weed. So it goes... I'm packing up to leave -- I've been offered a position with all the marijuana I want and good opportunities in world domination by the...
by Slarti the White
Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:00 pm
Forum: Courts, Law, and Legal Issues
Topic: The AsystBio Conspiracy
Replies: 134
Views: 16794

Re: The AsystBio Conspiracy

I spoke with Patricia Valdez, the Extramural Research Integrity Officer of the National Institutes of Health today. Her official position regarding our interaction is that, after reviewing the grant herself she had "concerns" and is taking appropriate steps. I would note that pretty much e...
by Slarti the White
Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:31 pm
Forum: Courts, Law, and Legal Issues
Topic: The AsystBio Conspiracy
Replies: 134
Views: 16794

Re: The AsystBio Conspiracy

One goodie I noticed about the False Claims Act: it remains under seal for 60 days. But there is no reason that the claim (or at least the facts behind it) can't be published beforehand. Then the defendants can be notified, starting the ticking clock on the period during which they can mitigate thei...
by Slarti the White
Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Courts, Law, and Legal Issues
Topic: The AsystBio Conspiracy
Replies: 134
Views: 16794

Re: AsystBio LLC case

I'll be brief: Why no False Claims Act lawsuit? I'll be damned. Turns out :sterngard: is right again. [Hey Foggy, I was supposed to remind you to turn that back on!] It's really annoying when that happens. :brickwallsmall: The answer to your question is that I didn't understand the offense for whic...
by Slarti the White
Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:12 pm
Forum: Announcements
Topic: Official Fogbow Meetup - Oct. 11th TO 13th - Myrtle Beach, SC
Replies: 383
Views: 38204

Re: Official Fogbow Meetup - Oct. 11th TO 13th - Myrtle Beach, SC (NEW HOTEL, CHECK RECENT POSTS!!)

Grumpy Old Guy wrote: Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:58 pm Sorry, I cannot be there. Happy indictments everyone.
I am sure you can find better court buildings restaurants than Denny’s.
Ya gots ta use Denny’s or it’s not official...
:towel:
by Slarti the White
Thu Aug 08, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Announcements
Topic: Official Fogbow Meetup - Oct. 11th TO 13th - Myrtle Beach, SC
Replies: 383
Views: 38204

Re: Official Fogbow Meetup - Oct. 11th TO 13th - Myrtle Beach, SC (NEW HOTEL, CHECK RECENT POSTS!!)

Excellent! That will help cut down on my cost of hiring the Fogbar to investigate a conspiracy theory. (I may have mentioned something about it on another thread...) I’ll also probably be bringing along a chef or two. At least two people that work with me personally that have been known to prepare f...
by Slarti the White
Thu Aug 08, 2019 12:52 am
Forum: Announcements
Topic: Official Fogbow Meetup - Oct. 11th TO 13th - Myrtle Beach, SC
Replies: 383
Views: 38204

Re: Official Fogbow Meetup - Oct. 11th TO 13th - Myrtle Beach, SC (NEW HOTEL, CHECK RECENT POSTS!!)

Foggy, I don’t know, I keep trying tables and they are all the cool kids’ table. What’s up with that? I’m not going to risk it unless there is a Denny’s where I can make presentments to the Fogbar and pick up the true bill. Where’s the closest Denny’s to the hotel? :towel: Please add me to the user ...
by Slarti the White
Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:00 pm
Forum: Courts, Law, and Legal Issues
Topic: The AsystBio Conspiracy
Replies: 134
Views: 16794

Re: AsystBio LLC case

Hey, it’s a “No sugar no grains (and no potatoes even though it doesn’t say so, too, also)” diet. Cheese is okay. Back off, Zeke, I’m a scientist. Although the evidence suggests that I should probably cut down on the cheese until I reach my goal... On we sweep with threshing oar Our only goal will b...
by Slarti the White
Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Courts, Law, and Legal Issues
Topic: The AsystBio Conspiracy
Replies: 134
Views: 16794

Re: AsystBio LLC case

I believe the correct statute is:

You have the right not to be killed.
Murder is a crime.
Unless it is done by a policeman.
Or an aristocrat.

Know your rights.
These are your rights.

Make sure you have it straight because next we’re going to rock the Casbah.

Just sayin’.
:towel:
by Slarti the White
Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:17 am
Forum: Courts, Law, and Legal Issues
Topic: The AsystBio Conspiracy
Replies: 134
Views: 16794

Re: AsystBio LLC case

KNOW YOUR RIGHTS, THESE ARE YOUR RIGHTS! ALL THREE OF THEM! https://ori.hhs.gov/whistleblowers-bill-rights-appendix Meeting with Sara later today... moar will be revealed afterwards. There is an unconfirmed rumor that someone might appear on the podcast below to discuss this case at some point... :...
by Slarti the White
Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Courts, Law, and Legal Issues
Topic: The AsystBio Conspiracy
Replies: 134
Views: 16794

Re: AsystBio LLC case

I dunno Foggy, does the transcript back that up? It seems like we probably spent around 15% of the time talking about the case to me. Just sayin’. :towel: Now that the stage is set and I’ve started the whistleblowing process, I can be clearer and freer about what I say. I am now in contact with UNC ...

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