Search found 268 matches

by SPen
Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Congress
Topic: 113th Congress: Senate Judicial Confirmations
Replies: 692
Views: 34848

113th Congress: Senate Judicial Confirmations

I'm interested to see how Grassley will handle Obama's judicial nominations moving forward. I'm pretty sure Obama renominated 11 of the pending 13 nominations, so we're either going to get to watch them (and every subsequent nomination) sit idle for months or see Grassley possibly surprise people an...
by SPen
Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:23 am
Forum: U.S. Senate
Topic: 2016 US Senate: California
Replies: 47
Views: 4284

2016 US Senate: California

Harris would be a particularly good choice for us because not only is she a star, she would deter a lot of other somewhat-marginal Democrats from getting into the race that could screw up our chances to get at least 1 Democrat to advance to November. There are a lot of other strong Democrats who wil...
by SPen
Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:31 pm
Forum: Congress
Topic: Democratic Congressional Caucus
Replies: 79
Views: 7494

Democratic Congressional Caucus

You do not want to lose Nancy Pelosi in place of "new blood," trust me. She carries the House Democratic caucus on her back. She's a fundraising juggernaut and a tactical mastermind.
by SPen
Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:12 pm
Forum: Governors & State Elections
Topic: 2014 Governor: Hawaii
Replies: 45
Views: 3094

2014 Governor: Hawaii

Here are the final fundraising numbers from August 9th, after the primary, to October 20th: Ige raised $1.25 million, spent $830k, and had $509k still in the bank. (Entire campaign: $1.92 mil raised, $1.42 mil spent) Aione raised $729k, spent $780k, and had $146k still in the bank. (Entire campaign:...
by SPen
Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:08 am
Forum: Governors & State Elections
Topic: 2014: Kansas - Secretary of State
Replies: 3
Views: 889

2014: Kansas - Secretary of State

It's just a shame that Pat Roberts and GOP-allied groups are dominating the airwaves in October. The Democrats had a decent shot of knocking off Kobach in addition to Roberts and Governor Brownback, but now some of them may squeak by.
by SPen
Thu Oct 09, 2014 11:03 pm
Forum: U.S. Senate
Topic: 2014 US Senate: South Dakota
Replies: 29
Views: 4127

2014 US Senate: South Dakota

I'm not sure if the GOP will spend in South Dakota. They'll definitely start shifting money into Kansas (likely from Oregon, Michigan, and New Hampshire), but they might think that Rounds can squeak by the split field without any money. It won't take long to find out though, because the DSCC putting...
by SPen
Sun Sep 28, 2014 1:08 am
Forum: President & Executive Branch
Topic: 2nd OBAMA Term: Cabinet/Administration
Replies: 567
Views: 23752

2nd Term: Cabinet/Administration

I think the White House will consider moving Tom Perez over to AG, but the downside of that is that it would create yet another vacancy that would also need to be filled. I'm hoping a name emerges soon because this must be dealt with during the lame-duck session. The GOP will likely unanimously vote...
by SPen
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:22 pm
Forum: U.S. Senate
Topic: 2014 US Senate: North Carolina
Replies: 67
Views: 6640

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

Yes, Republicans are starting to privately concede that Hagan is opening up a small but stable lead in the race. She's starting to drift up to 45%/46% in most polling and if she and the DSCC can keep hammering Tillis she might open up a little more breathing room as well.
by SPen
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:20 pm
Forum: U.S. Senate
Topic: US Senate: Alaska
Replies: 26
Views: 3854

US Senate: Alaska

Poll out by Hays Research has Begich up 41% to Sullivan's 36% PPP polled here this weekend as well. Hopefully it'll show Begich out in front by a couple of points.
by SPen
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:19 pm
Forum: U.S. Senate
Topic: 2014 US Senate: Maine
Replies: 3
Views: 1852

2014 US Senate: Maine

She's already gone far beyond her "pledge" to only serve 2 terms, had she kept it she would have retired prior to the 2008 election. And unfortunately she's not an actual moderate like her former colleague Olympia Snowe was. She's a reliable Republican vote for everything other than cloture for diff...
by SPen
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:17 pm
Forum: U.S. Senate
Topic: 2014 US Senate: Arkansas
Replies: 8
Views: 1285

2014 US Senate: Arkansas

PPP polled here over the weekend. Hopefully it's similar to a DSCC internal showing Pryor ahead by 3 points.
by SPen
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:16 pm
Forum: U.S. Senate
Topic: 2014 US Senate: Colorado
Replies: 21
Views: 3111

2014 US Senate: Colorado

Udall still probably has a 4-5 point lead in this one (that's at least how people on the ground feel). The DSCC just aired yet another attack ad against Gardner, highlighting how he's full of shit re: his recent claims about wanting to make access to birth control easier considering that he's still ...
by SPen
Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:12 pm
Forum: Governors & State Elections
Topic: 2014 Governor: Hawaii
Replies: 45
Views: 3094

2014 Governor: Hawaii

Those are some pretty huge overreactions. Ige has actually staked out a lead in recent polling (the new Civil Beat poll has him up +4, with Mufi only taking 8%) despite the fact that Hawaii polling often undersells Democratic support and because he's still not very well known. Aiona only had $200k a...
by SPen
Mon Sep 22, 2014 9:59 pm
Forum: President & Executive Branch
Topic: Obama Outperforms Reagan On Jobs, Growth And Investing
Replies: 11
Views: 1066

Obama Outperforms Reagan On Jobs, Growth And Investing

SPen, If the Democrats can't (or, even worse, wont) explain the simple correlation of ... Or the even clearer relationship of: ... then how is any dime donated to them not a waste of money? Because the Democrats have to win where they can win. A sad truth of American politics is that the vast majori...
by SPen
Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:15 am
Forum: President & Executive Branch
Topic: Obama Outperforms Reagan On Jobs, Growth And Investing
Replies: 11
Views: 1066

Obama Outperforms Reagan On Jobs, Growth And Investing

The reason that Obama and the Democrats aren't trumpeting this development is because people are still by in large not as wealthy as they were before the recession. Most Americans are still feeling the pain of the recession and for years after it ended a majority of people still thought the country ...
by SPen
Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:06 am
Forum: U.S. Senate
Topic: 2014 US Senate: Kansas
Replies: 71
Views: 4930

2014 US Senate: Kansas

Interesting that he is painting the gop candidate with Ted Cruz and painting him solidly into his corner. The logical conclusion is that he has figured that Cruz is not that popular in deep red Kansas. I wouldn't worry too much if they rule that the Dem cant actually drop out. If the Dem does not c...
by SPen
Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:02 am
Forum: U.S. Senate
Topic: 2014 US Senate: Oregon
Replies: 22
Views: 1951

2014 US Senate: Oregon

Yeah they're just retreating fast and don't care how it looks. They've done the same in Michigan as well. They bought (literally) into the nonsense that some of these prized GOP recruits would be competitive and now that they're seeing what the rest of us knew months ago they're moving their money t...
by SPen
Wed Sep 10, 2014 3:59 am
Forum: U.S. House of Representatives
Topic: 2014 MA-06 Upset in primary
Replies: 5
Views: 889

2014 MA-06 Upset in primary

Not so much an upset per se. It became clear once Moulton's name recognition rose and once the campaign began to spend real money that he was in this. What's harder to determine is why Tierney went down now. Did the Democrats not want to risk it again in a rematch in November between Tierney and Tis...
by SPen
Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:36 pm
Forum: U.S. Senate
Topic: 2014 US Senate: Kansas
Replies: 71
Views: 4930

2014 US Senate: Kansas

Interesting that he is painting the gop candidate with Ted Cruz and painting him solidly into his corner. The logical conclusion is that he has figured that Cruz is not that popular in deep red Kansas. I wouldn't worry too much if they rule that the Dem cant actually drop out. If the Dem does not c...
by SPen
Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:13 am
Forum: Congress
Topic: 2014: Government Shutdown, Next!
Replies: 11
Views: 856

2014: Government Shutdown, Next!

The interesting thing is his confidence on passing the spanding bill with a simple majority in the senate. So thats pretty much confermation that he plans to nuke the filibuster the second he gets a majority. Not quite. They would attempt to use the reconciliation process in order to pass their desi...
by SPen
Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:07 am
Forum: U.S. Senate
Topic: The U.S. Senate
Replies: 26
Views: 3178

The U.S. Senate

Sam Wang is more accurate with his current prediction than 538, the Upshot, and the Monkey Cage are mainly because there are some problems that are impacting the "state fundamentals" used by the latter three. There's also a very big problem that impacts all four of them: the quality of currently-ava...
by SPen
Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:03 am
Forum: President & Executive Branch
Topic: 2nd OBAMA Term: Cabinet/Administration
Replies: 567
Views: 23752

2nd Term: Cabinet/Administration

We are talking past each other. I and maybe both Startibartfast and Sterngard are primarily talking about winning elections, not about who can raise the larger amount of money. I agree that fundraising is important for winning elections, but I see it as an means to an end, not an end in itself. I am...
by SPen
Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:39 pm
Forum: President & Executive Branch
Topic: 2nd OBAMA Term: Cabinet/Administration
Replies: 567
Views: 23752

2nd Term: Cabinet/Administration

Too also, you completely ignored the possibility that there might be a better way of doing things or that some alternative strategy could open up new possibilities. No, I haven't. That's because in this process there is always ongoing testing to see what people are responding to and how they respond...
by SPen
Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:15 pm
Forum: U.S. Senate
Topic: 2014 US Senate: Kansas
Replies: 71
Views: 4930

2014 US Senate: Kansas

Wow that's closer than anyone would have thought possible. Someone saw this coming, haha. The encouraging part of PPP's poll is that Roberts actually trails the Independent candidate on the ballot, 33%-43%. The Democrats could possibly have an opportunity if Taylor is willing to step aside and let G...
by SPen
Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:09 pm
Forum: U.S. Senate
Topic: 2014: West Virginia
Replies: 4
Views: 1614

2014: West Virginia

The problem is that the post was written a year ago when the climate favored us slightly rather than favoring the GOP slightly or being dead even like it is now. Capito was the strongest possible candidate that the GOP could have gotten and she just decided she was going for it; she wasn't even recr...

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